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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I don't think it will be tanks rolling into Poland like a large invasion.

    It will be more like random fuel depot's catching fire etc.... it will be things that are easily denied by the Kremlin. It will be designed to cause tension and instability within the EU. Maybe try to get what ever country it would be to fire the first shot, so they cannot trigger article 5. I suspect it wouldn't be Poland, but say Moldova.

    If there's little push back from the west, if at this stage the west abandoned Ukraine, well the west is hardly going to stand up for Moldova.

    Just think the little green men in Crimea. Once Putin can deny something and the west or NATO don't want to get into a full scale war, then Putin can go on and on trying to destabilize countries.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,854 ✭✭✭zv2


    Putin has said that Russia has no borders. That's tantamount to a declaration of war whether he is serious about it or not.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Wholesale invasion? Debatable but also something expressed by Kremlin reps and politicians. And Ukraine was a fantasy til it wasn't; foreshadowed by Putin's own writings on "historical Russia". Annexation of russian speakers or presumed (mother)land is always an option - that has been the convenience this time around after all.

    I'll say one thing though: would you wanna take that chance after Kyiv came within days of falling? Poland doesn't; as has any other country with deep prior history with Moscow's proclivity for empire. Finland didn't close its borders just because of bicycling migrants.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,891 ✭✭✭✭briany


    The NATO alliance has never actually been tested in a major way, and the reelection of Trump would raise serious doubts about the alliance's stability, because we know where Trump and his acolytes stand on it.

    Putin knows full well that the Russian military would stand less than zero chance against a NATO force in a conventional fight, but his plan is to undermine it by sowing political discord in the constituent countries. A bit like Fred Dibnah felling an old chimney stack - light some well-placed fires at the base, and watch with satisfaction as the whole thing comes crumbling down...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,705 ✭✭✭rolling boh


    The situation seems kind of grim for Ukraine at the moment really wish they could have made some serious breakthrough to show any countries wavering a bit that there is light at the end if the tunnel. Sincerely hope I am wrong but the present what seems like a stalemate situation I think favours Putin .Please tell me I am wrong .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,891 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Not sure how a stalemate favours Putin, exactly. He has himself said that his war aims remain unchanged, so whatever public pronouncements he may make about the tide of war turning, he will be attempting to mask a deep frustration with the situation, and that is that his forces are bogged down on a static front line.

    Russia failed to achieve their aims in the opening phase of the war when rapid advancement was possible and being partially achieved. How does Putin expect to do that now when there are many static defences in place and Russia has never established air control at any point in the war? Where is their ability to advance going to come from and force Ukraine to surrender if not be subsumed completely? Is there any more detailed answer to this question than 'Russia is big. Has many men.'?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Putin's intent was to take Ukraine, so right now the war is a failure. While stalemate only ensured any potential victory becomes more and more Pyrrhic. IIRC they've lost about half the territory they took at the invasion's height, while they're relying on North Korea for ammunition and digging into their mothballed 1950s tanks.

    The stuff in the US will be resolved, cos it's just pantomime. The GOP probably just want more border concessions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Putin has been at war with the west for many years, but it has been a hidden war. Interference in elections, financing disruptive groups etc. Putin has invested many millions in his undercover wars worldwide..

    Russian Propaganda Army GBdmmkeWMAAybYm.jpeg




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Or this:-

    Putin Octopus GBgTcTTa4AAKbUM.jpeg




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    There's a name I'd never thought I see mentioned on here , only talking about the legend of Fred Dibnah recently



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,705 ✭✭✭rolling boh


    At this point neither Putin or Ukraine look likely to achieve their aim of Putin to take the whole country or Ukraine to push Russia back and out completely. My concern is that support for Ukraine will cool off a little for a whole lot of reasons. But I do think Putin can keep going enough to test the resolve of the various countries supporting Ukraine over the next couple of years .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,891 ✭✭✭✭briany


    The genius of the Russian strategy has been not only to sow discord, but to publicly spread the idea that they're behind it. It makes people suspect that Russia are behind everything, which deepens cynicism and political polarisation, and this in turn leads to further destabilisation. Kind of the geopolitical equivalent of a panopticon. Figuring out a way to counteract that will be critical to pushing back on Putin's ambitions for Russia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    But also to the realization that you cannot believe a word that comes from the mouth of any Russian.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,518 ✭✭✭scottser


    Europe will not abandon Ukraine. She will be the source of our gas, oil, lithium and cobalt and aluminium in the future.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Not to mention a solid bulwark against any future Russian aggression.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,183 ✭✭✭Field east


    The funny thing is that Russia does not have to physically invade NATo countries its soldiers, armoury, etc. in order t have a very negative impact over the longtherm. It can do it by - vey remotely - sowing division, cyber attacks on various services / industry, etc. , funding groups that cause ‘ trouble, etc, etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,822 ✭✭✭Brief_Lives


    aiming to be carbon neutral, does not mean we are moving completely away from oil and gas. it means we are aiming to be carbon neutral.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    In the same respect the universe is slowing expanding; COP28 and our collective inability to plan for what's coming has ensured we'll require fossil fuels for the medium term, long after we've past the pint of no return.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,513 ✭✭✭RGARDINR


    Screenshot_20231217_170145_com.android.chrome.jpg Screenshot_20231217_170206_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Now the only thing is I can say is that Russia hasn't ejected Ukrainian forces from the east bank so Ukraine does have toe hold there. Russia should of really have ejected Ukraine from there but either can't or are happy to have the Ukrainian marines pumping personell and material there and just been tied to that small area and not been used elsewhere in Ukraine. Been bled dry as such. Could be actually what they want to do for once.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It seems there's been a lot of complaints about the total lack of any Ukrainian fortifications along the front lines while the Russians constructed hundreds miles of multiple layers of defences and fortifications the Ukrainian have little or none ,it might explain the reason the Russians are able to keep grinding away at Ukrainian positions



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,476 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    “Russia won’t invade another country after Ukraine”

    Maybe these posters need to google countries Russia has invaded and then come back to us.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,513 ✭✭✭RGARDINR


    I think it's more they might be in no position to do so for years to come. It will probably take Russia 10 to 20 years to build its army back up. Plus it still is at war with Ukraine so they will still take huge losses before this conflict ends. I think this crap of ohh Russia will march on Nato if they win in Ukraine is a load of crap, not a chance they could, I think that drum is being beaten so that Nato countries can ask for more money for their military. But let's be honest Russia has no chance against Nato alliance. It's like when top brass military in Nato countries were saying Russia was greatest threat to us give us money to improve our military, I'm sure they well knew that wasn't the case but if you have a country to project peoples fears to then it's easier to get a bigger military budget. It's like what is happening in America, you can see the pivot away from Russia and now towards China as their number 1 foe. American military is more asking for military budget for this threat now. I'm sure if these were no threats would be some other country. It's just the way it is, but no Russia has no chance against Nato and it will be years upon years before they will be able to try it against another country after Ukraine fiasco.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,891 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Well, that's what they have been doing for quite some time, using troll farms to heighten existing social and political tensions in western countries.

    There are two main ways to combat this which I can see:- one is to clamp down on freedom of speech so that people cannot so easily repeat the disinformation being spread online, but this would essentially mean becoming more authoritarian like Russia, and pushback against this would only lead to more internal conflict, which plays into Russia's hands, so its not a goer.

    The second way is to meaningfully address the issues giving rise to the social and political divisions in the first place, but this means making hard decisions in the interest of the common people, not private companies who are profiting well from the status quo.

    It seems like the undoing of any system is an overload of tension generated by a consistent failure to address the problems within it. Authoritarianism seems strong, but is often brittle and suffers from a constant problem of information flow. Basically the leaders within this system are isolated and get bad information due to a reticence to speak truth to power, leading to ill-informed actions. Liberal democracy suffers from sort of the reverse problem where the leaders are afraid to speak truth to the people, which makes fertile ground for disinformation on the part of rogue actors attempting to usurp the system for themselves.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,476 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    But by conquering Ukraine it takes them a step closer.


    It might be 10 years, but its still a step closer.

    If they take Ukraine they will have Belarus also.


    How can you not see where this is all going if they succeed??



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,180 ✭✭✭eire4


    The attack on our own HSE being a good example.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,513 ✭✭✭RGARDINR


    I think Belarus sadly will be more saddle to Russia. Ukraine no if the west and the states supply them properly. But let's be real this thing about they might take on a NATO country won't happen. Europe and America after Russia is hopefully 100% defeated should arm countries surrounding Russia who don't want to be under the influence of Russia and train their armed forces up. It will take Russia years up years to get back to where they are military wise.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,185 ✭✭✭Polar101


    None of the countries bordering Russia really think it will take 10-20 years for the next aggression to happen.




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