Russia - threadbanned users in OP

"the idea that Ukraine actually suffered at bakmuth just as bad"

You are the only one I have seen to claim somehow the armed forces of Ukraine suffered in Bakhmut just as much as putin's forces did with most sources I have seen claiming a ratio of moskovyte losses to Ukrainian losses in the area that was very much in favour of the Ukrainians. Some claim the losses of troops by the wagner group there led to its destruction along with much of the offensive capabilities of putin's forces.

"how the Russians could hold a vital slag heap now they are in adviika"

Again claiming putin's forces are in Adiivka without any evidence to support your claims?

According to some computer game he has access to ......

Call of duty??

Both sides paid a heavy price in the end. I wonder this time next year will we be all still talking about this war or even the year after that.

Yeah that's the worry. Will be up to Ukraine as such but I suppose if and it's an if there told we can't supply you with what you have been getting it might change the picture but only time will tell. I just remember it was all Syria syria Syria on the TV for months on end and hardly ever a mention ever now and then it's Ukraine and was all Ukraine now it's moved on to Israel and Gaza. It's more I worry that say the next conflict comes along and 1 after it and Ukraine ends up further down the list and then once it's not in the public light it's then I feel politicians and countries might not give as much as they are now as that countrie's population has moved on from the Ukraine/Russia war. Out of sight out of mind comes along.

Except that this invasion of Ukraine impinges on Europe and the EU. We're as far away as possible in European terms, but plenty of bordering states who don't like the look of this imperialist Russian expansion at all. As individual citizens we have all paid a price in terms of rising food & fuel costs. Even in terms of our own state, we need to see peace and stability brought to Ukraine and the region, so that we may repatriate our Ukrainian war refugees back home to help rebuild their nation. And ditto for many other EU states. So we have skin in this game.

Yes. The mere fact we are seeing leaks about it, would indicate that without a major breakthrough by Summer next year, the call for some sort of negotiated end to this conflict will grow stronger, but Putin will spin that as a victory and the West will have been enfeebled. It will also give encouragement to others watching on. So I feel those pressures must be resisted. I still think Ukraine can make a decisive breakthrough sometime next year. Putin's grasp on power may then become more precarious.

Yakutsk would be in eastern Russia. It couldn't be any further from Ukraine. These warehouses could have been storing North Korean munitions on transit. Probably in an area affected greatly by Putin's draft being a long way from Moscow. Or could even be more local officialdom having sold the munitions to China on the black market and using fire for cover up.

Hopefully that's the cover for the warehouse. But the lack of explosions and firemen casually nearby point more to non weapons.

Insurance job then in a reclining economy.

You gave 3 hypothesis on how the war could end but you excluded one possibility. The west and the rest of Eastern Europe especially Poland has alot riding on this war and the defeat of Russia. If it was likely that ukraine was about to collapse surely an intervention by poland to prevent that would be a possibility. Obviously then it becomes a wider war, but would China enter in order to bail out putin, I doubt it. Obviously the US would be extremely wary of an intervention by poland so massive aid to ukraine in order to prevent the collapse of ukraine. The west and Europe have alot riding on this war too. They cannot allow putin to succeed in ukraine. Poland is now one of the biggest military powers in Europe, I doubt Russia would be in a position to take on a fresh European army in ukraine

Insurance in Russia??? The way the insurance "industry" works in Russia, if you don't have it, for sure your business will go up in smoke. Thats a certainty, but what's not so certain is that even with having insurance, and your business goe's up in smoke, that you will be covered. Its the Russian Way.

Nor that the Handmaid's Tale was originally written as a thought exercise "What if the Islamic Revolution that happened in Iran was a Christian Revolution that occurred in the US?" i.e. it is based on events which happened in the real world rather than just as a thought experiment in Atwood's imagination.

I had considered considered it, and discounted in on the basis of the old refrain that soldiers win battles while logistics win wars and NATO is out of ammunition. This was one of the scenarios hypothesized during the nuclear scares of the 1980s, that both sides would quickly run out of conventional munitions and resort to firing nukes if one side or other made a break through. Since the 1980s, European manufacturing has been off-shored and switched to just in time with extended supply lines, the West does not have the ability to scale weapons production for that scale of offense. To date Europe has not been able to scale production to meet demand. Western politicians, did not think this war through and are now learning a brutal lesson in logistics, manufacturing, sourcing materials and production planning. How long can can a NATO army be supplied in the field?

Germany has been crippled by shutting off fuel and mineral supplies, it is the funding nation for the EU project. I expect an economic collapse of Germany (and through it the EU). I reckon that crisis is likely 2 to 4 years out. Politics across the West are at the moment trending towards nationalism, there is no common cause uniting EU countries against Russia and a switch to a war economy. Across the board in Western Europe, inflation especially cost of accommodation, mass migration and energy policy (i.e. climate) have been creating political instability

There are other maneuvers underway on the financial side: Why China & Saudi Arabia Have Signed A $6.9 Billion Currency Swap Deal

The Saudis need $80 oil to meet their domestic budgets and "the West" wants low oil prices, especially to hurt Russian budgets.

The Chinese government are replacing their trade partners' US treasury holdings with Peoples Bank of China treasuries, this will give countries an option to mitigate financial restrictions imposed US government policy.

If has already been mentioned several times on the thread that "Europe" has not been able to deliver the ammunition their politicians promised. It has not been explained why this failure has happened.

When discussing the scenario that NATO gets involved in face to face fighting with the Russians, the logistics of the campaign will need to be organised. In that scenario Belarus becomes actively involved and that is at least another 300,000 men called up on the Russian side. NATO will need to move their armies 600 KM from the Polish borders to the Dniper river for starters and further to the Russian borders, that requires transport and fuel. Weapons and munitions will be needed, how much can European industry supply for this operation? It's not possible to take half measures and do it cheap, the population has to be behind the governments and taxes must be raised. There are quite large protests over the goings on in Israel, what do you expect to happen if you want to send NATO armies into Ukraine?

By the time they realise it's too late and they either die/surrender to Ukraine or get shot retreating. If you constantly bring in new storm units they don't have time to organise a revolt. The regular Russian soldiers are probably kept happy by the fact they don't have to do the storming.