The game-changing imminent occupation of Kupiansk and the encirclement of Avdiivka - are those still on?
Looks like Russia has made some gains in Avdiivka this week, with various claims of them now occupying the industrial sector of Avdiivka with Ukrainian forces moving back to the city
Report form Ukraine that renewed attacks by putin's forces on chemical plant at Adiivka achieved nothing significant:
The fact that they are now in Avdiivka is showing they have achieved gains despite the best efforts from Ukrainian artillery, they would well be looking at another bakmuth
putin's forces have been attacking Adiivka since 2014. Nothing new there I can see except for lots more dead moskovytes and destroyed moskovyte military equipment recently unless you have some reliable evidence to show otherwise.
This does feel like a potential Bakmut sequel, in the sense that this has may have been made a political objective by the Russians and is being pushed by Putin as a high priority regardless of the human cost.
Their use of resources at Bakmut was madness, and gained them very little strategically. If anything, Bakmut might have been what brought them that Wagner rebellion. Now they don’t even seem to have Wagner anymore thanks to that. Taking Adiivka at very least makes sense in terms for defending Donetsk from Ukraine. If the Russian defence here was to ever fall, the AFU would be in marching distance of downtown Donetsk thanks in no small part to their positions in Adiivka.
But beyond a very slow and creeping advance (with occasional reversals), can the Russians actually pull off a second Bakmut here? There is a greater danger of encirclement here for the AFU, but they do seem to be outclassing the Russian attackers in this fight. But if they can keep their supplies and troop rotations going, there’s every chance that an already exhausted Russian force (being egged on my an increasingly furious Putin) will run out of fighting spirit and will have to pull back.
I believe its only a matter of time before the Stalin doctrine catches up with Putin. Will it be the money running out to prosecute the war? Facts on the ground or just sheer loss of number that will be the tipping point. Maybe a combination of all three, but something is going to give in 2024.
Except now they are in adviika where before they weren't,
It's there in your own article
No it's not. You are the only one I can see claiming putin's forces are in Adiivka. Here is another recent report with details from the front lines in that area with nothing to support your claim.
Just wondering in regards to bakmut and Ukraines attack on same. In regards to the time Russia had to take the city compared to Ukraine trying to regain bakmut what percentage is Ukraine at in regards to doing so compared to say Russia when they were attacking bakmut? I know Russia would of had thousands of more deaths but say 6 months into the Russian attack say they had 80% taken where is Ukraine in the same time scale as Russia in regards to this?
It took Russia 9 months to take bakmuth but there wasn't always heavy fighting until the last 6 months when they threw but the kitchen sink at it , while Ukraine seem to be taking there time trying to get it back,and I don't blame them bakmuth was costly to the Ukrainians too , while people focus on Russian losses they tend to be blind to the idea that Ukraine actually suffered at bakmuth just as bad they were re-enforced 4 times and still lost it taken heavy losses which most would have been considered unnecessary losses,and over the last while we're hearing complaints Ukrainian unit's haven't left the front in 18 months so there doesn't seem to appear to be a lot of rotation going on this can lead to tiredness and complacency which costs lives ,
A couple of weeks ago people were telling us how the Russians couldt hold a vital slag heap now they are in adviika I don't think anyone would have predicted Russians getting that far ,it's now snowing in Ukraine so hopefully that will slow down the Russians for a couple of weeks to months
Here's Putin's latest self-preservation plan. I wonder how many for the front, and how many for Putins Home Guard?
As per The Moscow Times, the law signed by Putin expands the age range for this compulsory military service to 18-30 starting in January 2024
"the idea that Ukraine actually suffered at bakmuth just as bad"
You are the only one I have seen to claim somehow the armed forces of Ukraine suffered in Bakhmut just as much as putin's forces did with most sources I have seen claiming a ratio of moskovyte losses to Ukrainian losses in the area that was very much in favour of the Ukrainians. Some claim the losses of troops by the wagner group there led to its destruction along with much of the offensive capabilities of putin's forces.
"how the Russians could hold a vital slag heap now they are in adviika"
Again claiming putin's forces are in Adiivka without any evidence to support your claims?
Post on the difference with Bakhmut
According to some computer game he has access to ......
Call of duty??
Fair Play, Kazakhstan!!!
kyivindependent.com
Both sides paid a heavy price in the end. I wonder this time next year will we be all still talking about this war or even the year after that.
I previously said it looked like they the US /EU were actively planning for a 5 year war ,were now heading to year three and still very little has along the front lines and with the big counter offensive,
In all honesty I can see the US and EU eventually pushing for a political solutions which is something that kept creeping up over the last few months even if it has only been said quietly
Yeah that's the worry. Will be up to Ukraine as such but I suppose if and it's an if there told we can't supply you with what you have been getting it might change the picture but only time will tell. I just remember it was all Syria syria Syria on the TV for months on end and hardly ever a mention ever now and then it's Ukraine and was all Ukraine now it's moved on to Israel and Gaza. It's more I worry that say the next conflict comes along and 1 after it and Ukraine ends up further down the list and then once it's not in the public light it's then I feel politicians and countries might not give as much as they are now as that countrie's population has moved on from the Ukraine/Russia war. Out of sight out of mind comes along.
Don’t worry I’m sure the Russians won’t be able to resist sending another load of refugees to a border or killing innocent people or threatening nuclear Armageddon
Except that this invasion of Ukraine impinges on Europe and the EU. We're as far away as possible in European terms, but plenty of bordering states who don't like the look of this imperialist Russian expansion at all. As individual citizens we have all paid a price in terms of rising food & fuel costs. Even in terms of our own state, we need to see peace and stability brought to Ukraine and the region, so that we may repatriate our Ukrainian war refugees back home to help rebuild their nation. And ditto for many other EU states. So we have skin in this game.
To be fair your right and that might be 1 massive saving grace for Ukraine is that its happening on the EUs border.
Yes. The mere fact we are seeing leaks about it, would indicate that without a major breakthrough by Summer next year, the call for some sort of negotiated end to this conflict will grow stronger, but Putin will spin that as a victory and the West will have been enfeebled. It will also give encouragement to others watching on. So I feel those pressures must be resisted. I still think Ukraine can make a decisive breakthrough sometime next year. Putin's grasp on power may then become more precarious.
Corrupt orcs gonna corrupt
Yakutsk would be in eastern Russia. It couldn't be any further from Ukraine. These warehouses could have been storing North Korean munitions on transit. Probably in an area affected greatly by Putin's draft being a long way from Moscow. Or could even be more local officialdom having sold the munitions to China on the black market and using fire for cover up.
Tweets on that thread say it's a furniture shop.
Hopefully that's the cover for the warehouse. But the lack of explosions and firemen casually nearby point more to non weapons.
Insurance job then in a reclining economy.
"Tractor" factory involved in tank production blows up in Russia.
The assumption is baseless unless external powers agree to freeze the conflict, one side or the other will collapse. The Korean situation only became possible because the major powers had enough and the US had the muscle to keep an army in place on the peninsula.
You gave 3 hypothesis on how the war could end but you excluded one possibility. The west and the rest of Eastern Europe especially Poland has alot riding on this war and the defeat of Russia. If it was likely that ukraine was about to collapse surely an intervention by poland to prevent that would be a possibility. Obviously then it becomes a wider war, but would China enter in order to bail out putin, I doubt it. Obviously the US would be extremely wary of an intervention by poland so massive aid to ukraine in order to prevent the collapse of ukraine. The west and Europe have alot riding on this war too. They cannot allow putin to succeed in ukraine. Poland is now one of the biggest military powers in Europe, I doubt Russia would be in a position to take on a fresh European army in ukraine
Stay classy Russian propaganda 🤣
edit: there’s more
“Civilisation made a big mistake in educating women”
This is handmaidens tale type bullshit from a country that wouldn’t know what civilisation is
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