Russia - threadbanned users in OP

On land The Russian army is mainly in a defensive posture, with mine and trenches just like in WW1, that an invading army has be reduced to a static defensive posture, is very far from victory.

The current stalemate is based on the military capability of each side, and that will change with time.

Given the technological and economic advantages of their supporters the Ukrainians have far more capacity for improvement than the Russians have.

On the sea, Ukraine a country without any real navy, has managed to cause the Russian Navy many casualties.

In the Air, Russia has not achieved air superiority, and it is unlikely it ever will.

How many women do you get for a chip?

Yes it can never be 100 % effective. I don't believe enough is being done, existing sanctions are not being being enforced strongly enough.

As a further example see claim from official in our Department of Finance that Ireland has few teeth for enforcing the financial sanctions on Russia and so it is on an honour system (article below).

It is different to the enforcing of restrictions on high technology exports, but it is a similar problem of a lack of proper enforcement and inability or unwillingness to make examples of those who break the law as a deterrent.

The largest companies will comply because the potential damage they could suffer from breaking the law is not worth the rewards, but there are always some criminals and scum who will be prepared to risk it.

If they are seen to suffer no consequences and they just personally profit off Russian blood money (and help prolong the war), this emboldens more to do the same.

I'm blown away by the losses they've taken in the last few months and still have plenty of tanks and armoured vehicles to throw at Ukraine. It won't last forever though and whether it's another year or two they will eventually run out of tanks that are half decent.

Economically it will be the same. You have to remember Russia saved up a lot of wealth to fund this and they're still burning through that war chest. Once it's gone with the next year they'll start burning through cash needed for their economy.

Ukraine just need to keep going, keep the kill/death ratio high and strike as many Russian vehicles/soldiers/ammo/fuel logistics behind the front lines as possible. War isn't cheap and as long as it's sustainable for Ukraine to defend itself Russia won't win. Whether that's in 2 years or 8 years but it has to happen in this war. A ceasefire for a few year's will only benefit Russia.

And whether it happens next year or longer Ukraine have to be given everything under the sun to make that breakthrough to the south. Turn Crimea into an island which will be extremely costly to keep resupplying.

@jmreire will tell you about why as we've discussed it before. I too can't see how they are managing to keep a lid on Russian society in this modern era of connectivity. Yes, the Russian provinces may be less well educated but I'd assume that most/ many young people are quite adept with consumer technology.

We can but hope to see more of that sort of thing I suppose. (Speaking generally, not about Ireland in particular) the US govt. (or some larger European countries like France/Germany/UK) taking up the torch, ruining a few companies committing sins of omission or commission around sanctions and jailing fat cat directors or managers involved that dare to show faces on US/EU soil would be great.

10 days???...

Dated 2022. But in a sense, accurate. No gains of note since then.

One report of Ukrainians with F16s in Ukraine.

Hopefully true and are a help.

....

To put it in a nutshell, Russia is a Mafia state, with Don Putin at its head. He is the ultimate power in Russia, with the power of life or death, literally over everyone, and his tentacles reach worldwide. Skripol poisoning in England, and a bit closer to home, Prigozhin, one of his "Stars", but when push came to shove, he met his "premature" end to on Putins orders.

If you google "Putin Russia and the West", or Channel 4's "Hunting Russia's lost boys Dispatches" This was on last night, and by accident I happened to see it. A very telling slice of present day Russian life.... the complete disdain that the state has for its citizens, the sense of powerless these women felt when they tried to find out what had happened their menfolk. And also the implied threat if you asked to many questions. It also shows the real Russia not the glamour and glitz that is to be found in Moscow or St, Petersburg. If you watch it, take note of the conditions these people live under.

Adam Curtis is a pure stylist, I actually quite like his films but anyone who thinks they offer some sort of objective truth is deluded. He goes into the archives with his preconceived ideas and stitches together footage that supports these ideas

I can see three big advantages for the F-16 right out the gate.

• As a western-built aircraft, the Viper can integrate seamlessly with a lot of the weapons already provided by the west. You may remember that, early in the war, the Ukrainian Air Force was able to integrate the AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile into their MiG-29 and Su-27 force. This modification drastically reduced the attack modes that were available for the missile. When carried on an F-16, all attack modes will be available, turning the system into a much bigger threat for Russian AA systems. This is also true for other weapons systems provided to Ukraine, such as the AGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missile, JDAM and possibly even Storm Shadow, though I'm not 100% sure about that last one. It is NATO compatible, but the F-16 might need some software upgrades to handle the missile.
• The F-16 will enable Ukraine to better secure its own airspace against cruise missile or drone attacks, due to its greater emphasis on pilot situational awareness, data link capability and the ability to utilise weapons systems such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM. This is a massive step change compared to Ukraine's current inventory of MiG-29s and even the Su-27s.
• It simply means that Ukraine will have more airframes available for operation. The fact that the Ukrainian Air Force still has a significant number of Su-27s and MiG-29s operational at all is a testament to the skill of the air crews and the ground support staff, but things are getting thin. The Su-24 force (the aircraft modified to launch Storm Shadow missiles) and the Su-25 force (ground attack aircraft) seem to have taken quite a beating, and getting even a singe additional squadron of F-16s operational would increase Ukraine's capability quite considerably, even if only by adding additional airframes to the mix.

Having said that, the F-16 is no miracle weapon, and we should be careful to temper our expectations. There will be no massive fighter sweep that takes out the Russian Air Force once the first Ukrainian F-16 squadron becomes operational. We might see a slight increase in strikes against radar sites or key targets, but nothing world changing. Things in the air might change once more aircraft become available, but this is a long-term project, and in its early phases in particular, will likely be mostly defensive in nature.

Oh, and I think it's also worthwhile to point out that the first F-16s on Ukrainian soil will likely not be combat ready for quite some time even after they arrive. It'll take time for enough aircraft to arrive to form a combat-ready squadron, for the ground crews to work out the best way to service the aircraft at their home bases, for additional pilots to build up hours and so on. So even if the fist F-16s have arrived in Ukraine, which I'm sceptical about, I don't expect any major activity from them before December, possibly not before Christmas.