Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

We got a real sense of the dangers of a Sinn Fein government wing the fallout from Clown Paddy’s Twitter meltdown. Bit IT did not like what it saw and walked in minutes from the Web Summit.

Now imagine if Sinn Fein were in government last October 7th and the Palestinian flags went up on Government building as fast as they did on Mary-Lou’s profile while babies were being slaughtered by Hamas and US citizens kidnapped. Our multinationals would be running for the door.

Be very careful what you wish for, Sinn Fein could truly ruin the country.

So I agree with Ivan Yeats on this: -

Take Dublin South Central

Real this is 2 or maybe even 3 seats to SF.

PBP are brought in on the 2nd count due to SF.

Neither FG or FF move up in any of the counts, going from 5,078 to 5,788 by count 5 for FG while FF gove from 4782 to 5589. Even the large FF transfer to FG can't help in the final count as the Greens and I4C had already mopped up much of the rest of the transfers.

Think about it in this case if SF had run 3 candidates, most like GP and I4C would not have made it in, with the final seat between PBP, FF and FG or potentially both FF and FG getting a seat.

The townies would want to cop themselves on and stop voting that one back in, she is clueless.

With 39.3% of the vote, Sinn Fein could conceivably take three seats in a five-seater. A very even split of 12-14% for three candidates could see them take the last three seats, as the first preference needed for a seat is 16.6%. However, that level of voting would never give them three seats in a four-seater, where each candidate would have to reach 20%. You need to be hitting 48-52% of the vote to be taking three seats in a four seater.

The danger with running three candidates in a four seater with say, 40% of the vote, is that they split badly. 22% for one candidate and 9% each for the other two, could see them fall short of taking a second seat if transfers don't work out. That is an increased risk where one of the candidates - in this case O'Snodaigh - has a large personal vote. My guess is that SF will run two candidates here, manage the vote well and take two seats. It will be at the expense of Brid Smith not running.

Collins, FF and FG will look for the other two seats, Collins will depend on sweeping up any surplus SF (less likely than last time) plus Smith residue, not a certainty. Greens unlikely to figure, but their first preference last time out was higher than Collins.

This guy is currently giving it 2 SF, 1 FF and 1 PBP. At this point in time, with the polls where they are, hard to argue with that.

On O'Snodaigh more generally, great to see he is doing his bit to help with the housing crisis:

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/sinn-fein-td-aengus-o-snodaigh-objects-to-plans-for-development-of-208-homes-in-his-constituency/a90341705.html

Rather than rely on the words of politicians as some clearly do, I had a look at the development that O'Snodaigh is objecting to.

It is clearly an appropriate high-density use of a site within 5km of the city centre. A clear sense of NIMBYism to the objections.

Just a general comment on why objections might be made.

If the objection is thrown out then that is the end of it.

A housing crisis is no excuse to circumvent the process. God knows we have enough costly bills because regs and process has been ignored. And greed would have been one of the reasons why.

If the objection is legitimate and upheld then the somebody had tried to circumvent.

Do you think a developer or individual should be allowed build where ever they like?

Well the objection will have to be heard before you can say that.

Nobody is making out developers are 'evil' either. But there is a history of bad planning and bad developments in this country that our planning laws should have prevented if properly implemented.

You are engaging in tropes yourself - that everyone who objects is doing so for dubious reasons.

Do you think a developer or individual should be allowed build where ever they like, just because we have a housing crisis?

Can a development destroy or impinge on your quality of life?

We could get into a back and forth here pointing out that all party reps object to housing at times in their locality. That would be pointless (a back and forth) because it is clearly provable.

I have no doubt that some of those objections are cynical nimbyism and this one may very well be but some are genuine too. The proclamations of serial anti-SFers on this planning objection should be treated with the suspicion they deserve TBH 😁

It's also provable that developments have in the past been disastrous and costly because they were not properly scrutinised and many shouldn't have been allowed at all.

What is the solution?

Prevent objection?

Throw out planning law altogether?

Or invest in speeding up the processes so that good development (which this may very well be) can progress?

The levels of hypocrisy are more than variable. There is a direct link between the number of objections by a party and the amount of complaining they do about the lack of housing.

If O'Snodaigh's objections were a once-off some of his defenders could try and paint it as legitimate concern. However, the figures in this press release show the extent of the cynicism employed by Sinn Fein.

There is a pattern to what they do, make the housing crisis worse, no concern for people looking for housing.

You'll have to ask SF those questions.

We see all party reps doing this.

It comes down to, do you want to fix the system that delays legitimate projects or carry on as we are.

Whatever system is agreed it will have to allow for objections.