Russia - threadbanned users in OP

So Silverharp, you put no mass on all the damage caused by UKr behind the front lines eg sinking ships , bombing road and rail supply lines, blowing up ordinance, damaging tanks, high kill rate, etc. I suggest that the effect of all this is a ‘long term investment ‘ by UKR and is going to have a longtrerm negative impact on the Russians eg resistance in Russia as more body bags arrive, decreasing moral , increasing difficulty to supply ordinance , food etc to the front lines, etc.

Seems as if Ukraine has to go back to the drawing board a bit and assess what it is trying to do.

The only way forward is for Ukraine to lock the front lines and wait for Russia to collapse. Meanwhile-

They could be I doubt it will change much on the ground or in Washington,there was high expectations for this Counter attack even if the Ukrainians didn't promote any actual goals or objectives, those who are paying the bills won't be impressed and that's what's we are seeing currently in Washington, funding being held up I think going forward there will be expectations and returns put on funds before more are released (Hope I'm wrong)

Fidget

the navy one is mostly irrelevant, good PR but it doesnt affect the battlefield, hitting Moscow, again PR, growing their economy? a qtr of their population are not in Ukraine, their GDP will be a weird bookkeeping artifact of aid and loans.

Here is a Time article from yesterday , the future problems for Ukraine, notably a gurgling sound with the number of recruits. At the end of the day Russia has 3 to 4 times the population of Ukraine and Ukraine are further down the hoovering up any male that can hold a gun. I only follow US main sources so if I know they are being critical they arent materially over-egging the pudding. there has been a trend with negative reporting in recent months

Time article 30/10  , seems like gurgling sounds in Ukraine with men more than equipment being a problem

[URL unfurl="true"]https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/[/URL]

In some branches of the military, the shortage of personnel has become even more dire than the deficit in arms and ammunition. One of Zelensky’s close aides tells me that even if the U.S. and its allies come through with all the weapons they have pledged, “we don’t have the men to use them.”

When I raised these claims with a senior military officer, he said that some commanders have little choice in second-guessing orders from the top. At one point in early October, he said, the political leadership in Kyiv demanded an operation to “retake” the city of Horlivka, a strategic outpost in eastern Ukraine that the Russians have held and fiercely defended for nearly a decade. The answer came back in the form of a question: With what? “They don’t have the men or the weapons,” says the officer. “Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the new recruits?”

Ukraine’s slow progress at the front. “We’re not moving forward,” says one of Zelensky’s close aides. Some front-line commanders, he continues, have begun refusing orders to advance, even when they came directly from the office of the President. “They just want to sit in the trenches and hold the line,” he says. “But we can’t win a war that way.”

Now recruitment is way down. As conscription efforts have intensified around the country, stories are spreading on social media of draft officers pulling men off trains and buses and sending them to the front. Those with means sometimes bribe their way out of service, often by paying for a medical exemption. Such episodes of corruption within the recruitment system became so widespread by the end of the summer that on Aug. 11 Zelensky fired the heads of the draft offices in every region of the country.

I think this is the main take away from the past 6 months.

Russia winning this war by force of arms is impossible.

Russia sustaining this war indefinitely seems highly unlikely.

Ukraine didn't get the breakthrough it expected, but as far as we know, the AFU is considerably better equipped to maintain a war footing than 6 months ago.

AFU can defend against large scale Russian missile strikes.

AFU can strike targets in Crimea and Russia at will.

AFU has made Russian navy largely useless.

AFU has significantly weakened Russian air power.

Maybe it's time to hunker down for winter, defend against Russia's largely futile attacks, and hammer Russian bases and infrastructure until the Spring.

I don't believe that Russia has time on their side. Sanctions, military deaths, lack of progress, and increasingly contradictory propaganda are bound to crack something.

Ukrainian draft requirements can surely be helped by EU states and with help from the large refugee Ukrainian population.

EU states to review all Ukr men of serviceable age and repatriate those with no valid reason to be in their states - back to Ukr to do their duty.

The Ukr refugee population to do so likewise internally and 'pin white feathers' on those they know full well are avoiding their responsibilities.

You identify the people and check their status with Ukraine. If they've left Ukraine validly that's fine. If they've draft dodged, I don't see any great legal problem with the EU coming up with a legal agreement to repatriate them - where there's a will there's a way. And of course, it would be in EU states interests anyway to reduce unnecessary and illegal war refugees from Ukraine.

I presume of course that you would like to see Ukraine being in a position to fill the ranks needed to further the freedom of their state???

Nobody in Europe is going to want to deport hundreds of thousands possibly several million men and women to be forced to fight in Ukraine,

Never going to happen there refugees

people in Ireland who are welcoming enough of genuine Ukrainian war refugees - women, children, elderly. But who look on in quiet anger at Ukr males of service age who are here and potentially exploiting the system.

Where are you getting that idea from,

If Ukraine can't find people who want to fight in Ukraine what makes you think forcibly dragging men and women back to Ukraine will change anything you can't force people to fight it they don't want to ,

You want them to be Russia

Has the Russian assault on Avdiivka been bigger in scale already then the Ukrainian assault down South over the summer? At least the Ukrainian assault made some sort of gains. Praying everyday this Russian attack stalls.

Those of old enough to remember the invasion of Georgia something's don't seem to ever change, big increase in the Russian population of Georgia and a pretty much puppet prime Minister is making Georgia look next in line for a operation.