Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

His point sounds good to me, as a renter back then. I had a variety, some out and out gougers, others just happy to let the property cover costs or make a small profit. In the long run, neither sort was soft-hearted when time came to throw you out.

Luckily I managed to get out of that particular rat-race in the end. Dublin landlords are seriously the worst, so many of them still act as though it was 1913..

We have been at full employment for a while, so any small contraction in GDP due to multinationals exporting less is not the end of the world, nor is it going to materially impact house prices.

There is still far too much pent up demand and sfa supply

We are unique in that any mortgages that fall into arrears or non-payment as a result of rate hikes, these cant be repossessed.

So the only option left to the banks is to raise their rates further, so that the "performing" mortgage holders pay even more to cover losses made on those in arrears.

No other country would see this happen

Latest CSO visualisation shows a staggering 140 k migration. In such a market I could rent out my coal shed to some unfortunate. By way of example a nearby house of 65 m2 has just been rented out to six people. Bunk beds have gone into the downstairs room. The Ponzi scheme rolls on.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2023/

It is interesting to see what is happening in the US now that mtge rate has crossed 8%. Housing demand back at mid 90's level and basically the market has ground to a halt. Builders are not faring as bad as they are juicing up the incentives (such as mtge subsidies). I am reading stories of realtors who survived 08 saying it is worse now.

So no incentive to build until rents increase or government step in and pay….Absolute joke

I'm currently renting. Would anyone think it would be wise to buy a property at the moment? Keeping in mind that there doesn't seem to be any change in the imbalance of offer/demand and with interest rates only going up and perhaps staying this way for a bit, is it wiser to wait if you can for lower rates or leave the rental market as soon as you can?

I have people say ´´get out of the rental market and buy yourself a property if you can´´. Others say ´´I'd wait this out´´.

I´m not even going to go into the whole ´´there's a crash coming´´because God knows they've been saying this for years..

I don't think we have to get anywhere near 8% before serious pain will be felt

In general it's cheaper to pay a mortgage than renting at the moment for the equivalent property. You also have vastly more security. Rent prices are unlikely to decrease and interest rates probably won't increase dramatically or at all going forward. Given the exodus of landlords rent prices will keep going up/rental accommodation standards will go down. So purely from a cost of living buying is better.

It does depend on your situation though. The younger you are the longer you can afford to wait. The older you are the shorter the mortgage term available to you resulting in higher repayments. Irish rental regulations are not set up for long term renting which also needs to be factored in.

As someone pointed out in another thread there is also the cost of the rent you are paying between now and buying to consider.

All this is only relevant if you have the deposit and income to buy in the first place. Which is the biggest hurdle and a huge difference between the current housing market and the mid 00s.

It's hard to know if now is a good time.

The market seems to be in a weird place where interest rates haven't reduced asking prices. There's so much demand that people don't seem to care.

May I remind everyone that immigration is not to be discussed on this thread, as posts quickly descend to this sort of nonsense.

This is a moderation instruction - do not reply to this post.

Offsetting this are the large numbers of young people living with their parents.

As/if rents drop, they’ll move out and put a floor under it.

Really this is going to turn out to be a lot worse than expected. IMO this is the start of it. Just look at the top providers of corpo tax in Ireland. Pfizer are in trouble, Microsoft seems to have gone quiet, Twitter X is after halving in value, Apple and facebook are shedding jobs left right and center. There are about 10 MNCs that provide the majority of corpo tax in this country not mention a high % of highly paid jobs in areas of Pharma and IT. If these companies are in trouble and on the way down you can get your life that Ireland is too as we hitched our wagon to FDI along time ago and the next 5 years is going to be hard as our government overlords get weaned off spending our high corpo taxes for pi1ss poor services and replace it with ??? (your guess is as good as mine).. Keep an eye on unemployment if this starts ticking up over the next 2 years we may well see another 2008 scenario and back then we didnt have countries pumping up to go to war. War + continued reduction of cash inflows from FDI = Ireland's finances phucked (even further). Already we are seeing contraction in GDP and inflation is falling and what are the odds that the lads dont drop interest rates quickly enough and we see a situation were we have fallen off the ledge and the safty net of dropping interest rates to stop the world (not just Ireland) going into a deeper recession maybe even a depression is not put down quick enough. Very interesting times ahead but pointing at full employment and saying all is good in the hood is a snapshot of good our economy was maybe 12 months ago we will see the results of whats going on currently in say another year or so. Ireland no longer exists in a vacuum and current global events that are going in Russia, China and Isreal will have a huge effect on FDI and already had impacted over the last year or so and as pointed out in a year or 2s time we will be like junkies looking for our next FDI cash inflow. We are also going to have 15% harmonization corpo tax rate come into play which IMO will see even less corpo tax coming in.