Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Bat sh1t crazy

Jack Fella 🇨🇿🇺🇦 on X: "Remember. ☝️ Russian culture and sports are propaganda tools. And it only serves to spread fear. #RussiaisATerroistState https://t.co/5LpnnP6HU4" / X (twitter.com)

Absolute nonsense. Putin is losing a war against Ukraine and even if he wins the idea he will then take on the EU/NATO member Baltics (I assume that's what you meant not Balkans) is laughable Hollywood nonsense.

If Putin wins, and has Ukraine in his orbit, emboldened by that victory, after a pause, the same destabilisation and little green men tactics we saw in Ukraine would be used towards Baltics, Moldova Romania. Why are Poland increasing their independent military capacity?

We have seen the only thing that deters Putin and Russia is military power and resolve.

It may not play out way, Ukraine should keep Russia in check or even if Russia succeeds in grabbing land it will be expensive to hold.

But it is within the realm of political possibility, not laughable Hollywood nonsense.

We can see how Russia uses the resources of annexed Ukrainian territory, and conscripts its populace.

Had Russia stormed to an easy victory in Ukraine, that was the plan, to turn Ukraine back into a satellite like in USSR.

You are creating a simple scenario of a straightforward open attack, with no room or doubt, Article 5 kicks in.

The Russians wouldn't play it out that way. It would be destabilisations, an internal fifth column, little green men, border incidents and provocations, creating doubt. Maybe with an "America first" type President in the White House. A scenario designed to create wedge between NATO countries, perhaps one in which Poland comes to the assistance of one of the Baltics.

Part of a long game to roll back US \ NATO commitments to liberated USSR \ Warsaw Pact territory.

They have plenty of not quite little green men but little angry men converted to their cause in the everyday world around us. Slovakia is about to elect a pro Russian government. There is a new pro Russian party in Germany that is going to have serious electoral impact. (Not afd btw). And the island of lampedusa has been swamped by migrants weeks after Russian backed coups in North west Africa. They are already attacking us here in the west in a hybrid manner and have been for years. It is extremely naive to dismiss the Russian threat to the west as Hollywood fantasy. It’s an everyday reality.

Not disputing any of the stuff about influence. That kinda thing always goes on.

It sounded like the poster was suggesting that Putin will invade the Baltics which is what I am saying has no chance of happening.

Artillery shell production will have the biggest impact on the movement of front lines in this war in my opinion. This video gives a good rundown on where things stand at the minute in that regard.

https://youtu.be/dDoiqH66DLM?si=vBl9ElIXORkCXCKC

Terrible mistake if true.

I'd hate to have been the fella on here who suggested that this was a possibility a couple of weeks ago.

Whether it was fired by Ukraine or Russia doesn't really matter at this stage. Every single death in this "special military operation" is 100% the responsibility of 1 man and 1 country.

Such a shocking, senseless loss of life so close to home in the 21st century.

As of this summer, the Ukraine summer offensive has essentially failed and as attacking is more "expensive" than defending, Ukraine has used up a lot of men and resources. The downside risks for Ukraine are now waning support from EU/US , ultimately if they dont see Ukraine progressing they would start asking Ukraine to negotiate. On the other side clearly the Russian economy isnt imploding and they are muddling through all the sanctions. The most likely outcome I see is that the lines largely stay the same, the next likely is Russia carrying out their own offensive by the Spring, and the least likely is Ukraine knocking on the doors of Crimea.

Sorry I missed which level of Willy Wonka's Chocolate factory this fantasy land was in.

Ukraine have expanded their regained territory NW of Verbove between the two Russian defensive lines. Here's ISW's map from a couple of days ago

versus yesterday

and now today

Also worth nothing them attempting to move west towards Kopani from Robotyne (gains in dark blue seen in the first image).

Im a - what pragmatically makes sense, if they cant win and will end up making a deal in ~18 months that could have been made much earlier then a lot men's lives have just been wasted ( i know I know, nobody really cares, they are expendable). If they had a volunteer army and men were free not to join and free to leave the country then have at it, otherwise what their military and government want doesnt mean they are right, they are biased to keep going in lieu of evidence to the contrary.