Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Been a busy few days so not fully up to speed, is this another ship (after the docks attack that took out the sub)?

Yes, it's another ship but unclear whether it's been sunk or damaged. There is footage of what looks like a failed attack on the 14th.

It's also hard to tell how much air defence this ship was providing. It's a patrol vessel and not only was it never designed for Area Defence (only the Moskva had that), but it's own point defence is specifically mentioned as one of its weaknesses.

I have read reports that said they were after-fitting/lashing on/duct-taping air defence systems to various parts of the deck. So these vessels may have been plugging a gap.

I'm a bit confused what the Twitter author means about being a free-fly zone "under S-400 radar coverage". I thought the Ukrainians had destroyed the only land-based coastal S-400 covering the Black Sea in Crimea a few weeks ago. Maybe they mean that the S-400s further inland can still cover the Black Sea above a certain altitude. But it certainly looks like it's Novorossiysk for the Black Sea fleet for the foreseeable future and Sevastool/Crimea is no longer as valuable as it once was.

It's a fantastic piece of strategy. Instead of focusing simply on trying to sever the land bridge and Kerch bridge to Crimea, they've removed the whole motivation for Russia wanting Crimea to begin with, if it's only going to be a duck shoot for the Ukrainians. Not that that will matter a whole lot to the grunts on the ground who are there to kill Nazis. But in the same way that they conceded the right bank of the Dnipro in 2022 because it was indefensible and costing them heavily, they might in the next 12 months choose to retreat from Kherson Oblast to Donetsk and, unthinkable as it sounds, abandon Crimea.

Ha...and yet the Russians want to go to the world with their army of Putin-bots and assorted fan-boys and somehow try to sell the idea that Russia aren't the bad guys in all of this?

Here's a tip to any Russia fan-boy still reading here; the "Good Guys" don't usually recruit troops with the promise that they can occupy and live in the cities of a people they intend to eradicate. It's a fairly easy way to tell the good from the bad.

Although the region gets a lot of precipitation, the average snow depth never gets to anything significant. It's more frozen ground than alpine/nordic conditions. Which in my limited experience is a much more miserable type of cold.

And so it begins...

Maybe abramovich has an army of defense dolphins. But they're probably corrupt too

This, 100%. For Ukraine its a fight to the finish. And if Putin wins, Europe and the Balkans ( aside from the other Putin inspired trouble spots in the world.) may prepare for more "De-Nazification". The Hydra has to be killed, once and for all.

Bat sh1t crazy

Jack Fella 🇨🇿🇺🇦 on X: "Remember. ☝️ Russian culture and sports are propaganda tools. And it only serves to spread fear. #RussiaisATerroistState https://t.co/5LpnnP6HU4" / X (twitter.com)

I think it's the beginning of the collapse of Russian influence in the wider region as the emperor is finally seen to have no clothes. Russian peace-keepers have backed their Armenian allies in Nagorno-Karabakh up to now. Armenia realising Russia is week and can't defend its interest was reported to be pivoting towards the US in recent weeks. I don't think Azerbaijan would have made this move before the invasion of Ukraine for fear of upsetting Russia.

Absolute nonsense. Putin is losing a war against Ukraine and even if he wins the idea he will then take on the EU/NATO member Baltics (I assume that's what you meant not Balkans) is laughable Hollywood nonsense.

If Putin wins, and has Ukraine in his orbit, emboldened by that victory, after a pause, the same destabilisation and little green men tactics we saw in Ukraine would be used towards Baltics, Moldova Romania. Why are Poland increasing their independent military capacity?

We have seen the only thing that deters Putin and Russia is military power and resolve.

It may not play out way, Ukraine should keep Russia in check or even if Russia succeeds in grabbing land it will be expensive to hold.

But it is within the realm of political possibility, not laughable Hollywood nonsense.

We can see how Russia uses the resources of annexed Ukrainian territory, and conscripts its populace.

Had Russia stormed to an easy victory in Ukraine, that was the plan, to turn Ukraine back into a satellite like in USSR.

You are creating a simple scenario of a straightforward open attack, with no room or doubt, Article 5 kicks in.

The Russians wouldn't play it out that way. It would be destabilisations, an internal fifth column, little green men, border incidents and provocations, creating doubt. Maybe with an "America first" type President in the White House. A scenario designed to create wedge between NATO countries, perhaps one in which Poland comes to the assistance of one of the Baltics.

Part of a long game to roll back US \ NATO commitments to liberated USSR \ Warsaw Pact territory.