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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,062 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Victory is relative. Ukraine have already pushed Russia back from their capital, all the way to about 18% of the country. Many expect a point will be reached when neither side can make progress and out of that negotiation talks will likely start (overtly or behind the scenes), most likely through a third party, e.g. Turkey.

    Some are speculating this winter, but I don't know.

    From the widely held view of "Putin will never back down", yeah but isn't the 3 day operation he thought it'd be. Any inch of territory he holds of Ukraine he considers himself "up", and there is likely a cash out point where it's just not worth the strain on the military and economy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,041 ✭✭✭jmreire


    That's the point, they do not have a choice. Regardless of what you know, and many Russians know very well what's going on in Putin's Russia, you are not allowed to question let alone contradict official policy. Say you live in a large apartment block, with your wife and kid's, and have failed to turn up at the mobilization / registration office on the appointed date. Which means that you will get a 2nd and final appointment. Failure to turn up for this appointment means that you are a criminal, and a fugitive, automatically barred from all state services, non-existent in fact. Then the mobilization squad arrives at your apartment looking for you, and they mean business. You will be dragged out, even as your wife and kids are shouting and screaming, and trying to hold on to you. They will twist your handcuffed arms up high behind your back, forcing you to bend forward, and frog march you out to the police wagon. No one in the apartment block will come to your aid. All doors on all floors will remain firmly locked and bolted. Any interference would be punished, and maybe with the objector joining you in the police wagon. On the street, people will pass hurriedly by or suddenly remember something that they have forgotten, and have to turn back to get it. They know better than to get involved. So maybe you and your family and friends, are completely anti-Putin, but that's a position that you have to keep to your self, and not publicize, anytime, anywhere. And definitely not in any public place's, or in front of people you don't know. Its what happens in a Mafia state, and that's how Putin controls it. Forget all the remedy's available to you here in Ireland /.Europe. Legal representation, right to remain silent, day in Court etc. They do not exist in Russia. The Courts, if they can even be called as such, will reinforce Putin's laws.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,288 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    From very early on it's been my humble that Russia will likely 'keep' much of what they occupy for the moment, Crimea isn't even in play(neither is Odessa for the Russians and Kiev may as well be on Mars), the main hope for Ukraine was to push through the middle of the landbridge, but Russia's dug in like a tick now, so unless something changes radically on either side the front/border won't change much.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,041 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, many Russians know exactly what Putin is and has been doing for many years, even without TV, Internet etc. They have experienced it up close and personal. One of my many memories of Moscow and Muscovite's is sitting in a bar, and the news come's on TV. After a brief look, most turn away with shrug of their shoulders as if to say " usual Kremlin Bullshit". And now with You Tube, VPN etc, they are as well clued in as we here in the west are. So now technocrat, you are in Russia just what would you do to change it, and motivate your Russian friends to join you?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,269 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I don't think any of the corruption purges in recent months would be happening but for US pressure. Zelensky has little choice but to deal with it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,041 ✭✭✭jmreire


    And that was the real reason Putin wanted it, The NATO security crap was exactly that, crap.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,516 ✭✭✭zv2


    @rogber "Ukraine as a country is in absolute bits already,"

    Most of Ukraine, outside the war zone, is intact and functioning. Seized money from the oligarchs will be used to restore much of the damage. Some towns/cities may be lost forever but investment after the war will fix a lot of the physical damage and much of it is being fixed even as the war goes on.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,493 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I think privately western nations still believe Ukraine will lose the war and that's the real reason for the fumbling

    I don't think anyone privately or publicly or covertly thinks that, russia has already lost the war and are treading water the only question that remains is how they'll reverse themselves out of it and who they'll take with them as it happens.

    The west has backed Ukraine to degrees that were completely unthinkable before the operation began with more to come with russia screwing china over as well by waking up the western arms industry.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 804 ✭✭✭technocrat


    As time goes by I am more inclined to think the majority of Russians support Putin and his illegal invasion of Ukraine.

    There at best indifferent and at worst blood thirsty war mongers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,516 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    Mainstream news reporting the same opinion today. What has the west failed to deliver, genuine question as I'm dipping in and out of this so honestly not sure.

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,516 ✭✭✭zv2


    As he said, some promised kit did not arrive. South America has thousands of shells and the Americans asked for them - even offered compensation - and they refused. Bastards. People keep talking about politics and who gets what out of this but the central issue, at least for me, is the moral dimension. This alone is reason for everyone concerned to get on board and do all they can.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,068 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Artillery shells just for one example.


    The West is talking a million a year, when a million a month would be serious and already been seen fired in a month during the invasion.


    We hear talk of getting up to 3 million a year in some future date , whoop de doo.


    Every military warehouse in Western Europe should be seriously depleted because it is all going east.


    Money, support and investment should be pouring in to the arms industries of Europe, it might not consider itself at war but Russia and many others view themselves as fighting it.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,882 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The European Steel and Coal Community, an international organisation that relied on France and Germany not just living in peace but actively cooperating, was formed 6 years after the end of WWII.

    It would need massive changes in Russia in terms of their governing and behaviour but obviously it is possible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    South America hardly swayed the game here though. I'm more so on about the big game changer shipments from NATO talked about a few months ago, have they not come to fruition?

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,068 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The Left are quiet strong in South America again, especially Brazil, Lula will not side against Russia.


    Reality is much of the world doesn't care if Ukraine win or lose and most of Africa and Asia are routing for Russia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    Every military warehouse in Western Europe should be seriously depleted because it is all going east.

    That sounds frightening, let's hope that isn't the case.

    If Ukraine are faltering with the support it has received, I'd hate to think Russia not only wins here as the guy on Twitter mentioned but then would face a depleted Western front.

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Mech1


    It's time for all of Europe including ourselves to up productivity of everything that Ukraine needs and what we need ourselves.

    The whole defensive situation has been ground down since the fall of the wall in Germany.

    Everyone seems to have taken the eye off the ball since.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,552 ✭✭✭Virgil°


    I think people underestimate just how much can change and how quickly. At the beginning nobody thought Ukraine would hold for more than a few weeks. Then they did. Everyone thought the Russian Navy was dominant in the black sea then the Moskova was sunk. Now the whole Black Sea fleet is cowering from speedboats jerry rigged with explosives. Last year we'd never have thought that the Russians would be wholesale routed from Kharkiv and booted out of Northern Kherson, then they were. Not to mention the Kersch bridge, which I've no doubt will be turned into and underwater scuba diving attraction eventually. Russia are complaining near daily that the sanctions both aren't working and need to be removed. The ruble is absolutely falling apart. How loyal will a hungry dog remain?

    It was only a month or so ago we were on the cusp of a full blown mutiny come civil war. Now we're looking at a really tough slog. The Ukrainians haven't been given enough by the west to Ride of the Valkyrie their way to the coast. And undoubtedly they're losing lots of equipment and soldiers in this offensive. But if there's one thing that Russia have proven is just how brittle they are, something that the Ukrainians are not. These things tend to happen slowly and then all at once.

    The offensive isn't over yet. It hopefully has months more before the ground becomes too difficult and the GLSDB and Abrams haven't shown up yet.

    Who knows what tomorrow will bring.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,363 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Any example of that (from today)?

    I don't think it is that the "West" (which is the US in recent discussions on thread, let us stop using euphamism) "has failed to deliver" (e.g. by not giving promised weapons etc.)

    Just some people (incl. non expert me watching the news) would think more should/could have been done and a few more risks taken, and Ukraine would be in a better position if that had happened.

    ------------

    My own 2p or 2c is that I think we were at limit of what the Biden admin. really wants to do & to risk as regards helping Ukraine (they may yet step up and do more to help Ukraine "counter" Russia if they think it becomes needed e.g. Russian military is making progress again, or Ukraine is weakening. I think US/NATO has been pretty reactive with aid most of the time...Russia changes strategy, they counter it).

    There is just not as much at stake for the Americans in the outcome of this war as there is for Europeans. Speculating here but they might rate the risk of either a Russian collapse or Putin/Russia cracking under the pressure and doing something stupid + (even more) insane higher.

    The war dragging on for a few years will not harm/affect the US too much, provided Ukraine doesn't collapse/lose (I will stress, I don't think any US cynicism is involved here though). However it's a disaster for Ukraine and terrible for Europe. The US definitely don't want Ukraine to "lose", but if it happened, the US and its alliances will be damaged and weakened, and the US humbled, but it is a catastrophe for us here IMO (a wound for "them"...vs perhaps having a leg blown off for "us").

    Also majority (quite narrow I think going on polls?) of the "right" side of the US political divide is unconvinced of merits of assistance for Ukraine, and parts of it are pro-Russia and pro-Putin. That probably has to colour Biden's thinking heading into election, given easy and lazy attacks they can make on him ("wasting the taxpayers money on Ukraine", "concentrating on far away wars among foreigners, instead of the US homeland") to inflame US isolationism.

    Unfortunately for us in Europe the reality is we (and Ukraine) are dependent on them. The (now flaky, very very divided and distracted...) US is in charge here and it decides the strategy to follow + the USA is the one with the fully stocked gun/ammo cabinet on hand on hand to actually help Ukraine [to win] now, rather than (perhaps) a few years hence.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,516 ✭✭✭zv2


    Biden is talking about a serious escalation in shell production. I wish Turkey would go all in.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    Any example of that (from today)?

    I do

    An expert has said he is "tired" of hearing opinions on why Ukraine's counteroffensive is going slowly.


    "Bottom line, the West didn't deliver what they promised and more importantly didn't deliver even a fraction of what is needed in Ukraine," said John Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute.


    No other military has had to breach "such extensive mined defensive lines" since the Second World War, he wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.


    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,167 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,068 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    We are not far off of 2 years of war there.


    Still talking about is not much good though.

    Russia will take that as an encouraging sign, talk and only talk of normal production levels, not serious effort. March 22 should have been the cut off date for the talk and decision making.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,041 ✭✭✭jmreire


    That may be what you think, but its not true. Not in my personal experience anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,229 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Getting a bit browned off with the pernicious tarring of 'the left' in this thread, to be honest. I think that universal healthcare, fair wages, social security, workers rights, human rights, animal rights etc are good things and ideals to strive towards if not already implemented. Also think that climate change is certainly not some big hoax and that immigration is a net positive. By most metrics, I skew 'left'. However, I also think that Putin is a craven monster and that Russia needs putting back in its box post haste. Probably a bit more depth and geopolitical/economic complexity to Brazil's attitude regarding Russia than lefty likey Ruskie. BRICS, for example, has been a thing well before Russia (officially) invaded Ukraine. Shock horror - all these countries have been mighty slow to condemn Russia's conduct.

    Fair enough you get the people over here who are so far left that the horseshow theory comes very much into play, but that should be recognised as far left, i.e. contrarians who have to be on the bleeding edge of every hot take going. Back toward the centre there's a bit more nuance and reason going on. Most ordinary people on either side of the political spectrum in the West can agree that Russia are in the wrong, to put it comically mildly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 604 ✭✭✭mike_cork




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,068 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    They talked a good game though, that must have had a serious impact though.


    Putin is going to look at America, regardless of who is President Congress will have a majority of both sides keeping aid incoming but the focus will move to the election and Ukraine will drop away from the news cycle.


    Most of Europe seem to think it is all happening in some shi7 hole in Africa and not on the Eastern fringe of the continent, and involving a man who Views himself as in an existential struggle against Europe and the West.


    He has f all to worry about from most of Europe



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 804 ✭✭✭technocrat


    Then why no anti Putin/war protests by Russian expats in Berlin, Amsterdam or London.

    Yet we see same Russians flying Z flags and moaning about Ukrainian refugees.



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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,568 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    The thing is though, if people lose interest in news stories about Ukraine, but are happy for their governments to continue to sanction Russia and send aid to Ukraine, isnt that the worst outcome for Putin?

    Western aid continues unabated. Meanwhile, Russian propaganda has less of an impact because people dont want to hear it either way!

    This tends to suggest that Western support for Ukraine can continue for the medium term at least, and possibly indefinitely. That isnt good news for Putin at all



This discussion has been closed.
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