Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Agree. I think alot of the Eastern / Baltic countries (and Finland?) have already restricted their access as much as they can, without something collective at EU (I suppose Schengen) level.

Some countries still seem to accept the (IMO) bad/faulty arguments often put forward earlier in the war on this thread e.g. Russians should not be collectively punished this way, it is a benefit to us to let them flee Russia/Putin etc...and then you also have Putin's catspaw in the EU (Hungary)....

edit: I am a bit curious now about how many visas we are handing out to them + the trends...I am cynical and expect the worst there.

I think some in the west are happy to see a weakened Russia on the world stage, but at the same time they do not want a failed state on their hands with all the chaos that could bring about. It maybe that some in the west wanted a frozen conflict to develop all along instead of an outright victory for Ukraine. Their calculation could be Putin will come to the table and that an eventual deal with Putin is the least worst option than the risk of a civil war in a nuclear armed state if a total defeat is inflicted on Russia

If this is the calculation its a dangerous one, unless Putin comes to see an eventual deal as the only way of ensuring his own survival. If not he could see compromise as a sign of weakness and a green light to try again.

Yes, that's more like it. Soldiers are fair game, whether they want to be there or not, that is war.

The Russian people beyond that aren't though, any thinking outside of that is genocidal, fit for tyrants and scumbags like Putin. Nothing worse than seeing people drop as low as that.

Victory is relative. Ukraine have already pushed Russia back from their capital, all the way to about 18% of the country. Many expect a point will be reached when neither side can make progress and out of that negotiation talks will likely start (overtly or behind the scenes), most likely through a third party, e.g. Turkey.

Some are speculating this winter, but I don't know.

From the widely held view of "Putin will never back down", yeah but isn't the 3 day operation he thought it'd be. Any inch of territory he holds of Ukraine he considers himself "up", and there is likely a cash out point where it's just not worth the strain on the military and economy.

I don't think any of the corruption purges in recent months would be happening but for US pressure. Zelensky has little choice but to deal with it.

@rogber "Ukraine as a country is in absolute bits already,"

Most of Ukraine, outside the war zone, is intact and functioning. Seized money from the oligarchs will be used to restore much of the damage. Some towns/cities may be lost forever but investment after the war will fix a lot of the physical damage and much of it is being fixed even as the war goes on.

As time goes by I am more inclined to think the majority of Russians support Putin and his illegal invasion of Ukraine.

There at best indifferent and at worst blood thirsty war mongers.

Mainstream news reporting the same opinion today. What has the west failed to deliver, genuine question as I'm dipping in and out of this so honestly not sure.

South America hardly swayed the game here though. I'm more so on about the big game changer shipments from NATO talked about a few months ago, have they not come to fruition?

That sounds frightening, let's hope that isn't the case.

If Ukraine are faltering with the support it has received, I'd hate to think Russia not only wins here as the guy on Twitter mentioned but then would face a depleted Western front.

I think people underestimate just how much can change and how quickly. At the beginning nobody thought Ukraine would hold for more than a few weeks. Then they did. Everyone thought the Russian Navy was dominant in the black sea then the Moskova was sunk. Now the whole Black Sea fleet is cowering from speedboats jerry rigged with explosives. Last year we'd never have thought that the Russians would be wholesale routed from Kharkiv and booted out of Northern Kherson, then they were. Not to mention the Kersch bridge, which I've no doubt will be turned into and underwater scuba diving attraction eventually. Russia are complaining near daily that the sanctions both aren't working and need to be removed. The ruble is absolutely falling apart. How loyal will a hungry dog remain?

It was only a month or so ago we were on the cusp of a full blown mutiny come civil war. Now we're looking at a really tough slog. The Ukrainians haven't been given enough by the west to Ride of the Valkyrie their way to the coast. And undoubtedly they're losing lots of equipment and soldiers in this offensive. But if there's one thing that Russia have proven is just how brittle they are, something that the Ukrainians are not. These things tend to happen slowly and then all at once.

The offensive isn't over yet. It hopefully has months more before the ground becomes too difficult and the GLSDB and Abrams haven't shown up yet.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring.