Unseasonable weather with warnings Fri 4th / Sat 5th Aug 2023

Seems that the Midlands are getting alot more rain than they normally would. Is this because there are better conditions for more convection to occur?

Update

Widely, totals of 20-30mm of rain are possible with the heaviest and most persistent rain expected in the south, and perhaps also east of the country, affecting parts of County Down and Belfast. Here 40-60mm is possible in some places with perhaps as much as 20-30mm of this falling in 3 or 4 hours. Meanwhile, 70mm may fall over parts of the Mourne Mountains. In the south, wet weather will be accompanied by quite windy conditions, gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible in some coastal parts of County Down during the morning.

The likelihood has been increased, just below orange level now.

I think M.E might upgrade some counties to Orange level for rainfall. I think this could cause more widespread flooding problems than we’ve seen so far this summer.

Some fairly strong winds showing across some of the main models now for the south east coast tomorrow morning. Strange because Met Eireann are not showing any gusts at this level on their hourly forecast for South Wicklow. GFS and AROME not playing ball though they have a much less significant event for this area.

Its not mentioned in their forecast so theres a good chance it could happen.

Rain just starting now in the south coast, bang on forecast

But it is mentioned ! 😎

Or donegal

Hello weather folks

Just wondering how accurate ventusky forecasts are. Predicting nearly 40mm of rain in South Dublin from 3am to 6am. Have a sporadic leak (waiting on roofers) and thinking I might need to stay up in case the drip catching bucket gets overwhelmed.

I'll be watching wind direction. Have a birch in the front that is well looked after, pretty dense leaves and branches. The willow is another matter, was too late in the year to get to it and it's got alot of beetle bore holes.

Same, I have 2 massive Beech trees and a chestnut that are all over 200 years old. They sit right above the public road, which is immediately south of the trees so winds from the North are definitely most risky. In the past 4 years I have had multiple arborists out to quote for trimming them and none of them will take the job because they are quite awkward to get at. Every single year I spend September to March worrying about them coming down in a storm. The only thing about northerly winds for me is that I'm sheltered from them by a hill. I only remember one northerly wind event, I think it was 2 years ago, and there was hardly a breath of wind at my house despite a wind warning in place. Hoping for the same outcome tomorrow.

Just looking at Meteologix most models have slightly downgraded the wind potential for the East (but still some looking potent). ECM & HARMONIE keeping the strongest winds offshore; AROME, GFS and surprisingly ICON that usually way overstates wind potential are downplaying things a bit, and then UKMO HD out on its own with near red-level gusts. Still a big spread in the models in terms of severity with this one.

Unfortunately the source of the leak isn't anything obvious. Roofer who installed it blames the semi-d flat roof adjoining neighbours and after 3 attempts to source the issue stopped answering calls.

Fingers crossed for yourself, hope you don't wake up to any surprises 👍️