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Unseasonable weather with warnings Fri 4th / Sat 5th Aug 2023

  • 02-08-2023 8:19pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,227 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    Thinking that the weather system later Fri 4th into Sat 5th is noteworthy enough to have it's own thread to keep an eye on it and later for reports for future reference. A deepening small Lp system as it transits Ireland getting down to a modest 995mb but travelling at fair speed being propelled by a fast jet. Quick moving overland but given that it is in the height of summer it is bound to cause damage with trees in full leaf. Could be hazardous to camping sites and caravan parks or to temporary summer structures related to festivals / trading etc.

    Sat morning could see a lot of branches and trees down from the strong winds and given that soils might be saturated in places. Currently looks like producing wind gusts of up to 90 to 100km/h overland ( strong enough in Winter but very strong for Summer ) in the early hours of Sat morning. Highest wind track currently mainly through Munster, parts of Connaught and S Leinster but this is subject to change as the models tweak this over the next couple of days. Rainfall totals look a factor also with high totals in places in a relatively short time, some places potentially getting 40 to 50mm and a wide enough area getting between 25 and 35mm in 12- 14 hrs going by the current charts. The models have being upping the wind speeds over the last few runs. There is time for the models to moderate of course but seems to be good cross model agreement for a sharp short wind and rain event.









    Post edited by Meteorite58 on


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Galway Bay could see some decent swells in that run.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭Niall145


    Best summer ever



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,276 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    My trampoline!! What a **** summer!!



  • Registered Users Posts: 592 ✭✭✭aisling86


    Looks like we’ve at least 1 caravan awning to take down Friday morning. We have season pitches in eagle point & my parents are very exposed to the west & north. My own caravan is more sheltered so I’ll see it any warnings come before dismantling mine. We escaped the freak winds that came through the campsite a few weeks ago which toppled 1 caravan and there was at least 20 awnings damaged. The joys of being so exposed on the south coast.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,964 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Summer 2023 just keeps on giving eh!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,729 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    What direction will the wind be blowing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,434 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    It is quite windy tonight even, although the weekend might be on a different level.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,964 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Seems to be from the N/NW direction looking at Met Eireann forecast which is also somewhat unusual. Last time we had a strong wind event from the north I was mostly sheltered from it, I'm at the base of a hill to my north whose peak is about 150m above my house so be interesting to see if I get the same wind break effect.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,253 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Looks about 25mm to 35mm most places in that middle third though that area could shift slightly North. Most of rain overnight in the West so probably a repeat of last night here with higher totals. So we may be at 50mm for August by the 1st weekend of August.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,335 ✭✭✭ongarite


    Yet another music festival facing possible cancellation or stage shutdowns due to this terrible summer.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,729 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Thanks, that was what I think the charts were implying.


    I live in fear of due south wind's,



  • Registered Users Posts: 698 ✭✭✭TedBundysDriver


    My friends family decided they'd do a staycation this summer for the first time and have been away since last Friday camping in Kerry and where moving onto Connemara today for next week. They've tried their best but have had a miserable time and are just going to call it a day and head home today instead given the frankly ridiculous forecast for the next few days piled on top of the constant rain for the last week.

    The wife in particular feels awful about the whole experience as she let the husband talk the family into doing it instead of a sun break abroad and it's been a disaster. I'm frankly amazed they lasted this long as they had to move the tent twice due to flooding in the space of 2 days.

    Personally i'd never take the chance of a staycation especially with kids as without good weather Ireland has very little to offer in terms of relaxation unless you pay big money for luxury hotels/activities etc... Thankfully we got away for 2 weeks to Lanzarote in July because it must be the worst summer i can ever remember bar 2 good weeks in June.

    Amnesty International’s new investigation shows that Israel imposes a system of oppression and domination against Palestinians across all areas under its control: in Israel and the OPT, and against Palestinian refugees, in order to benefit Jewish Israelis. This amounts to apartheid as prohibited in international law.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,964 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Some models backing off the strongest winds now except maybe for Cork, Waterford and Wexford.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,728 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    We've 'staycationed' every year since our children were born. 14 summers, mostly in tents and a caravan,and have had plenty of really good times with plenty to do even when the sun wasn't shining

    Your friends got unlucky this year with the bad weather



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,234 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Yellow - Rain Warning for Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry

    Unseasonably wet and windy conditions may lead to some disruption on Saturday morning.

    Widely, totals of 20-30mm are possible, however the heaviest and most persistent rain is more likely in the south and perhaps also east of the country, affecting parts of County Down and Belfast. Here, there is a small chance of 40-60mm, with perhaps as much as 20-30mm of this falling in just a couple of hours. This will be coupled with some strong winds, widely gusts of 30-35mph are likely, with the risk in some areas, especially exposed coasts in the east, of gusts up to 45-50mph, perhaps bringing some coastal impacts in places. The persistent rain will pull away east into the afternoon, however it will remain generally windy, with a mix of sunshine and blustery showers following.

    Valid: 00:00 Saturday 05/08/2023 to 12:00 Saturday 05/08/2023



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,252 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Rain warning for Connacht, Cavan

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Spells of heavy rain from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning.

    • Possible impacts:
    • Spot flooding,
    • Poor visibility,
    • Difficult travelling conditions
    • Valid: 14:00 Friday 04/08/2023 to 09:00 Saturday 05/08/2023

    Status Yellow - Rain warning for Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Meath, Offaly, Westmeath, Wicklow, Monaghan

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Spells of heavy rain from Friday evening to Saturday afternoon.

    • Possible impacts:
    • Spot flooding,
    • Poor visibility,
    • Difficult travelling conditions
    • Valid: 18:00 Friday 04/08/2023 to 13:00 Saturday 05/08/2023

    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Cork, Kerry, Waterford

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Overnight Friday and Saturday Morning

    • Very strong north to northwest winds with gusts of up to 110 km/hr

    • Possible impacts:
    • Falling branches.
    • Damage to temporary structures
    • Difficult travelling conditions
    • Valid: 01:00 Saturday 05/08/2023 to 12:00 Saturday 05/08/2023
    • Issued: 15:53 Thursday 03/08/2023




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,253 ✭✭✭pauldry


    We seem to get yellow rain every weekend and the see-through variety during the week.

    Yellow rain is pi££ing rain



  • Registered Users Posts: 939 ✭✭✭alentejo


    ME according to their ap don't have substantial rain reaching Dublin till around 9pm on Friday. Would value any thoughts how likely this is?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,252 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Yes ,it will be well into the evening/early night before rain reaches the east. Nice day tomorrow, Friday,for most.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,234 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    An unseasonably wet and windy start to the August Bank Holiday weekend




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 826 ✭✭✭gandalfio


    Could this possibly cancel All Together Now festival until the Saturday given the warning mentions danger of falling branches and damage to temporary structures?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,941 ✭✭✭acequion


    This 1000 per cent!

    I've never understood the mentality of a staycation, except maybe during the pandemic when needs must. While flights abroad in summer can be expensive, bargains can be found by planning well ahead. And once abroad there's much better value to be had. So my point is that anybody or any family who can afford a staycation in this exorbitantly priced country can afford to go away if they plan it carefully.

    Also fully agree that there's little to give relaxation to the tired worker if weather is shyte. Some hardy souls might be happy to don the rain gear and get stuck into to rainy outdoors activities, but many nowadays are burned out from their jobs and need half way decent weather at a minimum, or like you say, fork out for a luxury resort in Ireland and how many can do that!

    Irish tourism and businesses won't thank me for this kind of post, but there is no denying the advantages of flying out of this country for your well earned break. I would feel sorry for that family and all those who will have to endure a bad bank holiday weekend if the weather warnings pan out as forecast.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,123 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Is any thread safe from discussions of holidays? Absolutely sick of listening to people going on about how much better the weather is country x. Nobody cares.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭Barnaboy


    In fairness this is peak summer with kids off school. Most people get 2 weeks off for well earned breaks. Not everyone can afford to get away. This summer is the worst I ever remember for weather here. I'm someone who enjoys getting into the garden in the evenings and weekends. Having barbeques. Can't even remember the last time it came out. It's bloody depressing weather for the time of year. It's only natural people are peeved.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,233 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    So it looks like the strongest winds will just be in Munster now. Going off topic a bit, It seems Deer in Kerry are very friendly by the way. Perhaps they could be coaxed into playing for the county:)

    I saw a class picture on Facebook of people right up close to a Deer in Killarney. Now back to the weather again, there could be a bit of warmth around for a couple of days during the second week of August.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,941 ✭✭✭acequion


    Nobody??? By nobody I take it you mean you. As in just one person. A great many people care, actually.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,317 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Mod Note: Can we please stay on topic.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    I'd love a good storm. That's how jaded I am with this "summer". Can ye blame me?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,233 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Well, with a strong El Nino due more wind storms are likely this Autumn and Winter.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,227 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    All the models have this system less deep than previous shown not getting below 1000mb in general and on a more Southerly track, strongest winds through SW, S and perhaps the SE coastal counties, current models showing getting gusts up to around 80 or 90 km/h, maybe a bit higher on the Kerry coast, Wexford could be brought into the yellow wind warning, could get very windy along the Wexford coast for a short time tomorrow late morning / early afternoon.

    High rainfall totals in a fairly short timeframe.

    ICON-EU about average, in the middle, between the models showing the strongest and less strong winds atm. it's track is slightly more North of some of the other models but very like the ECM.

    Will see if there is much of a change in tomorrows model output. Not a particularly strong system but just it being summer there is some added risks especially Southern coasts and more exposed or elevated ground.

    It looks like the triple point in the system transits the counties highlighted in the charts below to get the most rainfall, hard to predict, might see changes upwards in accumulation predictions tomorrow in the models, will see if there is much of a change.







    Post edited by Meteorite58 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 265 ✭✭iancairns


    Same for us.

    staycation every year with 2 kids for last 5 years. Usually 2 weeks in July. We did first two weeks this year. It was strong westerly’s and we were on Renvyle peninsula. In Connemara there’s always a beach within an hour drive that can find decent shelter and diff conditions. Obviously yellow warning your goosed. These 2 weeks seem to have been the worst of it. But early July with the wind. Rain blew thru and once you get a couple hours day on beach you’re sorted. Had some incredible summers where I think we have the best sea and beaches going so I’ll always take the risk. Feel bad for the campers. This year has been by far worst ever. Way worse than 2009. The worst weather has been every weekend. Ridiculous stuff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,714 ✭✭✭✭fits


    We holidayed at home every year for six years until this year and had a great time. Camped the last two summers for a few weekends. Tent hasn’t been out yet this year as we couldn’t get away in June. Plan to go camping next weekend though so fingers crossed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 472 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    There's a few music festivals under or close to wind warnings this weekend. If they don't get a lucky dodge there will be tents flying every which way in my opinion. Especially as the camp-sites are relatively open and unsheltered at one in particular



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,227 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON good model for rainfall suggestion getting close Orange warning territory for rainfall accumulations.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,693 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Has been named Storm Antoni by the UK Met Office. Did anybody have the "first" named storm of 2022-23 occurring in August on their bingo card?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 704 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Seems that the Midlands are getting alot more rain than they normally would. Is this because there are better conditions for more convection to occur?



  • Registered Users Posts: 452 ✭✭Robwindstorm


    Fair play to you Meteorite for flagging this system so early. I am in North Meath and all northern areas and across the Midlands could well be flooded with this intense rainfall and then add in the wind further south. Storm Antoni could definitely leave it's mark considering it's a bank holiday weekend with loads of outdoor events. What a shambles of a summer 😒



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,234 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Update

    Widely, totals of 20-30mm of rain are possible with the heaviest and most persistent rain expected in the south, and perhaps also east of the country, affecting parts of County Down and Belfast. Here 40-60mm is possible in some places with perhaps as much as 20-30mm of this falling in 3 or 4 hours. Meanwhile, 70mm may fall over parts of the Mourne Mountains. In the south, wet weather will be accompanied by quite windy conditions, gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible in some coastal parts of County Down during the morning.

    The likelihood has been increased, just below orange level now.

    I think M.E might upgrade some counties to Orange level for rainfall. I think this could cause more widespread flooding problems than we’ve seen so far this summer.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,227 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod note: pleases stay on topic, off topic posts will be removed. Plenty of threads available re met eireann, climate, general summer discussion etc.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,964 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Some fairly strong winds showing across some of the main models now for the south east coast tomorrow morning. Strange because Met Eireann are not showing any gusts at this level on their hourly forecast for South Wicklow. GFS and AROME not playing ball though they have a much less significant event for this area.




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Hope the campers in ATN have deep pegs for their tents with those winds forecast tomorrow morning.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,401 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    I move we ban Meteorite and MTC from the weather forum. They've done nothing but tell us it will rain and be windy all summer.

    If they're gone, the sun will shine... guaranteed 😀

    Had planned on going going to Gougane Barra tomorrow but that's now cancelled.,😡😭



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    Met Eireann forcasting risk of thunder overnight in north Dublin. Is this likely??



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Its not mentioned in their forecast so theres a good chance it could happen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    heavy rain and thunder forecast from 8pm to 1 am here in the west .



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,696 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Rain just starting now in the south coast, bang on forecast



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭sparrowcar




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka




  • Registered Users Posts: 250 ✭✭xii


    Quick everyone into Limerick



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭vickers209




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