Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Isn't this you doing the opposite of what you claim Russian propaganda intendeds to do? Ukraine has already won, is something you don't even believe, and if you do it's an absurd thing to believe, yet you do so to keep the spirt of victory alive, even if you don't truly believe it. This isn't a Marvel movie, the "good guy" don't always win.

@firemansam4

No 'might' about it. The original objective was to topple the Zelenskyy government and prevent the country from leaving Russia's sphere of influence. To that end, Russia undertook a lightning invasion on three fronts. Or, well, it was supposed to be a lightning invasion but was hamstrung by a combination of really bad intel and endemic incompetence/corruption within the ranks of the Russian military. What has ensued is a bloody, brutal war of attrition which is exactly what Putin was looking to avoid with the original plan, but he cannot quit it as he seems to believe that to do so would be the end of Russia or, rather, the end of him, and he likely fears that more.

The complete surrender of Ukraine remains the thing Putin wants to achieve, but he never can, now. To shift the goalposts to, say, taking the Donbass is clearly what it is - a downward revision of the original objective in order to retain some domestic political standing.

I wonder if when Putin hears the words "Let's negotiate...", does he really hear, "I'm weak and vulnerable."?

It's curious how the same lines of argument, with similar phraseology pops up. Just co-incidence I guess.

I believe the Migs they have are updated with western weapons.

I don’t think so myself. In my opinion The main reason is that Europe is not in war economy mode and does not want to switch war economy mode. Therefore the stock of weapons to give away to another country is very finite.

The music from Swan Lake more than likely????

Your last paragraph is stated as fact when at the moment it's pure fantasy. For Russia to handover top politicians and generals for war crimes trials, and pay massive reparations, a lot will have to change within the country. There is no guarantee any of that can happen, it's just a wild hope

Simple I dont think Ukraine can win with what they have been given.

The west and particularly the US have helped and are helping with many weapons, but I think a lot more and faster can be done. Why keep delaying f16 training? Why is long range weapons off the agenda for the US?

I dont want to see any of this help stop, I want to see Ukraine get much more, and maybe enough to give them a chance.

But I also dont just blindly believe Ukraine will win and take back Crimea and although very unpalatable, I believe they may have to contend with negotiations of some form in the future.

I hope im proved wrong on this, ill gladly take people bringing up my posts in the future to rub it in.

The antics of Wagner PMC

Something of a clandestine operation is going on between Putin/Wagner (IMO). According to Denys a convoy of heavy armour is now heading to the Wagner camp in Belarus.

I think in the next week or so we will possibly see Wagner, and maybe the Belarusian army, push down the western border of Ukraine towards Lviv to disrupt the supply of western weapons. They could go direct to Kyiv but I think the push towards Lviv makes more sense for Putin.

The Russian military machine is really ramping up and production of weapons like the new Lancet2 are going to make a big difference, it appears the west has no answer to the Lancet (see my previous post on the Lancet). 

The western ramp up of arms production is going a lot slower than the Russians, and I think the window of opportunity for the western arms to make a difference is rapidly closing. Russia can get all the technology supplies they need via China and Iran, unless Putin is overthrown or the army rebels against Putin I cant see anything positive for Ukraine in the future.

With no active negotiations going on, the west has really reduced Putin's options, Biden really needs to change direction fast or risk dragging the west into a much bigger conflict. 

I really hope and pray that Russia is evicted from Ukrainian land, but I just can't see it happening with current strategies.

I see a German Intelligence assessment of the Ukranian Counteroffensive was leaked to De Bild. Regarding the Lancet, if what you say is true, militaries adapt and a solution will be found. There was a stage where everyone thought Russia's Hypersonic missile was unstoppable, we soon found out that it can be neutralised. The Russians have also done the same during the course of the war

I really can't see Belarus getting involved directly in the war. Lukashenko is happy to stay on the sidelines. Belarus entering the war could be the end for him. Putin for all his bluster won't risk a direct confrontation with the west. Which is what such a move could bring about.

That's why his bluff should also be called on the blockade of Ships heading to and from Ukranian ports.

I called it the Lancet 2 which is wrong, I believe its referred to as Izdelie-53. I think its abilities surprised everyone, including the Russians, it has well over 100 confirmed hits on all types of hardware.

Hopefully it has a weakness, but I have yet to see it counter effectively.

Lukashenko has just finished a 3 day meeting with Putin (extended by 2 days), I wonder what they were talking about, surely at a time like this Putins main focus must be winning the war ?

I agree the blockade should be tested.

My German ain't great but that looks daycent!

What's more, a number of LNG terminals that were just beginning construction this time last year have since become operational, even in Germany, where the authorities were dragging their heels so hard that they nearly formed a new valley. Germany alone has opened Terminals in Wilhelmshaven, Lubmin and Brunsbüttel, with another terminal to start operating near Stade, incidentally where I spent my childhood, this winter. What's more, additional terminals at Wilhelmshaven are also supposed to go online later this year. So even if we end up with a really harsh winter, which I doubt, given how the global climate seems to be going off the rails this year, there's plenty of additional import capacity even in that one country alone.