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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I don't think those who survive WW3 (with nukes) would really care who started it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,395 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Worries about weapon tech being lost and backward engineered to find countermeasures.

    This isn't modern technology.

    Depletion of own stocks.

    Give Ukraine 100 out of 4,000. Let them hit the Kerch bridge, and opportunistically attack naval targets and air bases in Crimea. Give them another 100 if the first batch doesn't do the job after 3 months. Then another 100 after 3 months. etc.

    The denigration of potential weapon sales to other parties.

    Ukraine will use them all. The very few unexploded duds will have limited use.

    sending them expensive weapons systems is engaging in a "sunken cost fallacy"

    We are not in sunk cost territory. I think Ukraine has the ability to reclaim the pre-2022 border if they get the help they need.

    The brake is on this effort though. Yes, I said it. America is the only country that has the capability for Ukraine to reclaim the 2022 border and as of right now they are holding it back.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,223 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    I think publicly these counties act like they're terrified of Russia but behind closed doors they're not. Especially America. They conveniently use this narrative as an excuse why they're afraid to support publicly.

    But in reality I suspect they drip feed the weapons for two reasons. The main one it prolongs the war. They sacrifice Ukraine to inflict maximum damage on Russia. Cripple them as a threat for decades to come. Maybe even cause a break up of the union although unlikely.

    The second is the slower they deliver weapons the longer they have to ramp up production again and train Ukrainians on the equipment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 480 ✭✭Ramasun


    It's a good time to invest in military related industries, their order books will be full for the next few years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,692 ✭✭✭swiwi_




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I don't think he's insane: I think he misread the stranglehold he had on European economies and decided it was Now Or Never to get Ukraine absorbed back into the USSR he missed so dearly.

    A dice was rolled that the West would look the other way as a Kremlin stooge was installed in Kyiv, the EU kept passive with Nord Stream and that France/Germany would shush Poland et al once they got anxious.

    We can either put that down to bad intelligence, or good intelligence ignored by a man who wrote a literal treatise on why Ukraine and others should be part of "Historical Russia". The problem now is, you got a stubborn, bullish man who knows weakness will be punished with sudden defenestration: but he's now stuck in a war that in theory could be won eventually - but a pyrrhic victory for sure, one that'd destroy the Russian economy and deplete its military strength to critical levels (with no path to recover it, such is the severity of the sanctions).

    All that said, I don't know what circumstances could transpire that Russia would be happy to accept - retreat is not in their nature, and a death sentence for Putin.

    Post edited by pixelburp on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭Seanmadradubh


    "It is vitally important to convince Putin that his regime will not be able to outlast Ukraine and all of its supporters"

    The importance of this can't be overstated. Every time someone calls for negotiations, or says it's time for Ukraine to start thinking about trading land for peace, no matter their intentions or their saying they fully support Ukraine, what they are really doing is helping to prolong the war and giving succour to Putin and Russia.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,965 ✭✭✭rogber


    Like you say, America has the weapons Ukraine needs to progress much faster in the war. It won't give them. The question is why. Hard to escape the conclusion that the US is not against the war dragging on as it stops Russia making trouble elsewhere and keeps weakening the country. What can Ukraine do? Not much, as without American help it's in serious trouble anyway



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    America are the ones keeping Ukraine in the game.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Let's be doubly blunt here. There's also a part of the "peace at any cost" crowd not factored in enough, and only highlighted to me of late elsewhere on Boards: outright racism. Within the seed of anti West contrarianism there's also a subset of what reads like blatant racism that dismisses Ukrainian concerns, hand waving away swathes of Ukraine cos "they all look and sound russian anyway"; lamenting the involvement of "white Europeans" in the conflict presumably seen as a kerfuffle between a bunch of Russian Slavs.

    It's also noteworthy how in all the "peace at any cost" narratives espoused by people, Ukrainian self determination never, ever figures in the spitball. It's about giving Russia what it wants, giving Putin what he lays claim to - Ukraine just non existent in terms of the end result. They don't count, they're not allowed any agency; again, a by product of dismissively viewing Ukrainians as cosplaying Russians. An affectation of concern for the ordinary people caught on all this -bnut not enough concern to give them any ability to dictate their own destiny.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,185 ✭✭✭Polar101


    The people who ignore Ukrainian self determination also believe NATO expanded to Russia's borders, while the fact is instead that everyone who joined since the '90s did so willingly and independently.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    Yes and when confronted with that fact they go dumb. Like it’s unbelievable Finland and Sweden have been in the news applying to join for the last year and it had to be approved by all members with much difficulty . Yet these guys say NATO is aggressively expanding. How is it possible for them to have that take??? Unbelievable



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭20silkcut




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,852 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,303 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Short interesting piece on a Ukrainian M777 gun crew




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭Caquas


    A month later and I say the CIA/MI6 still don't know what's going on in Russia.

    Last week, Bill Burns and Richard Moore both gave their assessments of the "March on Moscow" and it's obvious that neither of them know what happened on 25 June, most importantly why Putin and Prigozhin reached a deal and what that deal entails. At least Moore recognises that it was a humiliation for Putin. Burns' comment about Putin wanting revenge as a "dish best served cold" is just cover for "I don't know where this is going". (Please don't say that they only pretend that they don't know in order to protect their sources. If they knew what is going on, they would have spared us their rambling open-source speculations, and without exposing any agent.)

    How apt that Moore was speaking in Prague before the 55th. anniversary of the 1968 invasion. The West was caught completely off-guard back then even though the Kremlin had been preparing it for months. Was that the worst failure of Western intelligence during the Cold War? Perhaps, but they had no excuse for missing the even more consequential invasion of Afghanistan (ultimately, that invasion opened the door to one of the CIA's most effective actions but, then again, that opened the door to the Taliban😱).

    At least the Americans, unlike the Europeans, saw the invasion of Ukraine coming but that was probably sigint and geoint, not humint. No wonder the CIA/MI6 are pleading with Russian citizens to come forward, but would any senior Russian military commander risk their lives with either the CIA or M16? Can they even promise safety in the West after Salisbury etc.?

    In fairness, I'm not sure the Chinese know what's going on either. Xi Jinping can't have been pleased by the confusing media messaging following the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister's unannounced visit to Beijing on 25 June. Hats off to whichever Western intelligence agency can find the Chinese Foreign Minister and ask him about that meeting. 🎖️😏



    https://www.npr.org/2023/07/21/1189450185/cia-director-william-burns-putin-is-the-apostle-of-payback



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,745 ✭✭✭seenitall


    The majority of Russians and Ukrainians I’ve met so far are in general more white of skin tone and more blue of eyes than many other “white European” people I’ve met. So I’d suggest the anti-western contrarian “racism” you’re talking about is in fact a VERY western elitism, born out of a superior sense of having done so much better in the last 100 years than a place like the USSR/Russia, with all its vastness of land and resources but which managed to fcuk everything up for itself time and again. Plus the further away the trouble is, the less we care about it.

    There is no more “racism” toward the Ukrainians than there is toward Russians; it’s those poor incompetent stupid nations in the east who fcuk everything up from the revolutions and the gulags to Chernobyl and the infighting, and can’t get a handle on themselves at all. Those Slavs, eh.

    It is easy to sit in scornful judgment and not bother to distinguish one nation from another, when all the suffering brought on by brutal imperialism is far enough away, and has been thus for decades. The west has been too comfortable for too long, and all these anti-west contrarian types who I’ve been meeting lately, frankly don’t know they are born, and are just a very annoying by-product of the west’s indulgence and imperviousness.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Francie, go live there for a while, and you will understand why its not called a terrorist state for nothing. Before they terrorized other states, they terrorized their own people first.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Nope, not yet anyway,,,,,,,Its possible that if Prigozhin had continued on and took the Kremlin, that might have been the trigger, give the reception he got when he was leaving Rostov, crowds were cheering an clapping him, quite the opposite of what the police ( yes, they bailed out too! ) got when they returned, bottles stones catcalls and insult's. It was a very big fence sitting moment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,745 ✭✭✭seenitall


    You’re not just barking up the wrong tree with addressing that post to me, you’re somewhere in a Siberian forest at the moment 😄



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Strictly for home consumption. He's trying to justify the war especially when his usual " Russia is under attack, and only I can save you" spiel is wearing thin. He's in trouble on all fronts now, Ukraine the World and internally in Russia itself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,745 ✭✭✭seenitall


    No, no theories, the answer to your question is well known and well worn on this thread, not least by yourself. I touched on it in my post just there as well.

    Next question? Or are you going to address anything from my actual post?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,965 ✭✭✭rogber


    I never disputed that. The point is about endgame versus keeping the game going.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    It could be argued that he had already lost it when he made the decision to invade in Feb 2022. But ever since his "Election?? " he has shown a murderous disposition.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Nope, I doubt it very much that he wants to get NATO involved, its the one thing that he has ( so far) avoided, same as the west has avoided giving him an excuse to use "The Bomb".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,965 ✭✭✭rogber


    As usual you revert to personal insults. Am I a bit cynical about American motives? Yes. But I'd call it realistic. America, like every country, serves its own interests first. In this case they happen to tally with Ukrainian self preservation, and that's a good thing. But anyone who thinks America's sole or even primary interest here is in promoting freedom and democracy is very naive.


    Apathetic? No. Brainwashed by Russian propaganda? No. Believes there is no alternative to Putin? No. I've said time and again the only lasting hope is to overthrow the monster. Why do you keep repeating lies?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    I think that Xi Jinping has warned him strongly against going Nuclear in any shape or form... he made it quite clear that he was not amused even at the frequency Mr. Putin was introducing it into the conversation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,745 ✭✭✭seenitall


    No need for apologies, I know myself I can be a contrarian poster, which comes from having all kinds of different experiences in life……… but I’ll never be on any other side than that of any nation’s freedom and self-determination. One of those! :D



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Its not so much the serfs that bother him (although they will be a factor) its the other power blocks in the Kremlin....Silovicki, Oligarch's. FSB, GEU, etc. the Et Tu Brutus moment.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    That was always Putin's excuse and justification for his invasion. If NATO had never existed, he would have found other excuses. He wants Ukraine back under his control, and that's it. End of Story.



This discussion has been closed.
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