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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It's not a case if they have the equipment or not ,they have the men to go on the offensive,the biggest question will be If they do go on the offensive and take even more ground then what ?

    For all we know the Russians are happy to sit and watch watch the Ukrainians going through multiple meat grinders like bakmut,then make a move ,and then We will be back to breaking news f16s been discussed,a handful of f16s won't change the the current situation either



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,891 ✭✭✭Homelander


    100 thousand men and 900 tanks on a broad front isn't much of an offensive force.

    Could they take some ground? Sure. Could it be a war winning offensive? Not even close.

    What form would this offensive take? What equipment do they have? What are their logistics like?

    Russia is pretty spent as an effective invasion force in Ukraine and are really just trying to consolidate as best they can.

    The path to Ukrainian victory isn't total military victory, it's fighting Russia to a total standstill and making the invasion/occupation increasingly untenable until Russia has no choice but to accept defeat.

    They are doing a good job so far. I often see people say "but they control 25% of Ukrainian territory" as if to highlight some sliver of success on Russia's part. Putting aside the dismal performance of the Russian army, the vast majority of that territory was already held pre-invasion in Crimea and Donetsk/Luhansk.

    Their actual achievements and battlefield successes since the invasion in 2022 are pretty negligible in the overall scheme of things.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    And yet they hold large areas of Ukraine, areas Ukraine are absolutely struggling to make ground were heading into 2 months of this counter offensive and they are not much further than they started off , breaking news is single vehicles blown up is all well and good but if your in the same position as you were 12 months ago despite tens of billions in weapons and vehicles been delivered questions will start to be asked



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,054 ✭✭✭Sultan of Bling


    What % of Ukraine did the Russians hold pre February 22?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,072 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Not sure standstill will be enough. I think they really need a big victory this year. If they could take another massive chunk of territory like they did last year that could be a game changer and make the war unsustainable for Russia. If Ukraine can truly threaten Crimea then Russia may look for a fast way out.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    About 40,000 sq kms prefebuary equating to 17% give or take ,

    Now they occupy 161,000 km give or take which equates to about 27% give or take



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,521 ✭✭✭zv2


    It seems to me the way to win is attrition by artillery or economic collapse in Russia, or both. If Ukraine can hold out long enough Russia might implode economically.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Russia can't exist this economically crippled forever; it's a harder one to quantify but It can't be overstated just how bad the Russian economy is doing. And the reason why is clearcut: sooner or later the war in Ukraine will officially have cost too much.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,072 ✭✭✭jackboy


    But if they withdraw the economy won’t improve. The sanctions will still apply, the west may pursue reparations. What will actually improve for them?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,339 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Well if they genuinely withdraw they wont be funding the huge cost of carrying on the war and the conscripts can go back to working.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,521 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Sanctions could get lifted with cavats and there is money and profits to be made in Russia,this is where capitalism will raise it's head ,and there's always the IMF ,it will do nobody any good having broke Russia, Ukraine and Belarus being a drain on the global markets and economies .

    Broke can crippled Russia means Ukraine will be dependant on European tax payers to fund and rebuild their economy and country



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,299 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    When suddenly articles like these start appearing in conservative western media outlets it's most likely kite flying and to start maneuvering the public for an outcome.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,495 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I dunno, like the further right posters on here (you're deluding yourself if you think it's conservative), if the telegraph are saying it, the opposite is likely to happen.

    Their track record lately is so awful it's a laughing stock.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,072 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Paywalled, can you paste the full text of the article, ta.

    The NYT has started producing similar clickbaity titles like the above, but the content is usually the same as anywhere - the counteroffensive isn't going as fast as hoped, but still making progress.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,521 ✭✭✭zv2


    Russian oligarch's money is frozen and will be used to rebuild Ukraine. Also, Ukraine is potentially rich as they have recently discovered gas reserves - in the occupied territories.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,072 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Another US package should be announced in the next days, 1.3 billion, I see a lot of drone stuff being mentioned (Phoenix ghost's, Switchblades and jamming)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,521 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,068 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It's gist is that the offensive is being held back, Ukraine has lost a lot of equipment and men in the last few weeks, it's not the usual pro Russian leftwing stance at all, he points out that anything but a defeat for Russia is a win for China and Russia and a loss for the West.


    Give them everything they need,or the price will be much higher long term, it's a call to war.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It likely won't be especially once claims get to Europen courts ,



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 273 ✭✭pummice




  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,568 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    His big insight is that war fatigue means there is a ticking clock on the war. However, for Western voters, war fatigue doesnt mean "we are sick of hearing about Ukraine so stop sending them money", it means "we are sick of hearing about Ukraine just keep sending it to then and stop going on about it".

    The suggestion that people once entusiastic about the war are losing momentum does however apply to one group - the pro Russian "peace" protesters we saw last year. The moneys dried up, and we no longer see useful idiots protesting for an end to the war and cheap gas for all!

    The EU have given committments of support for Ukraine for the next few years. Thats baked into the pie. Trump has largely moved on from Ukraine because its not as big of a vote winner as he hoped. Ukraine will be supported for the next few years. I think we have passed an inflection point with Russian mutinies etc and now time is not on Russias side. I wonder how long the Russian people will tolerate how awful their country has become!

    Oh, and by the way, just so you know how it works here and in the UK etc, we have freedom of speech and freedom of the press. This means that writers and editors can express their views freely and what is published is up to the publication and not the government. Thats how it works here, unlike how it is in Russia. Just FYI



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,299 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Absolutely not. The Telegraph is the mouthpiece of the Tory party.

    The British government, like others, marched their populations up a hill and now need to condition public opinion for the climbdown. The counter-offensive that was intentionally built up through a media campaign has failed, they spent all this money and you can be absolutely sure a media campaign is underway to guide the public to accepting what is all but inevitable.

    No-one wants to be left holding the baton.

    This is not new. It's how the media has always operated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Reminds me of this classic Yes Minister quote:

     I know exactly who reads the papers. The Daily Mirror is read by people who think they run the country; The Guardian is read by people who think they ought to run the country; The Times is read by the people who actually do run the country; the Daily Mail is read by the wives of the people who run the country; the Financial Times is read by people who own the country; the Morning Star is read by people who think the country ought to be run by another country, and the Daily Telegraph is read by people who think it is.

    Sir Humphrey: Prime Minister, what about the people who read The Sun?

    Bernard: Sun readers don't care who runs the country, as long as she's got big tits



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,621 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    I think your maths is wrong.

    If 40k sqkms is 17% then 160k sqkms is nearly 70%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 110 ✭✭doyle55


    EU plans €20B fund to stock Ukraine’s military for the next four years.

    The price tag would be a major commitment for the EU, potentially increasing by nearly five times the €4 billion the bloc has allocated thus far for similar efforts over the last year-plus.

    The proposal would not involve the EU directly paying for Ukraine’s weapons. Instead, Brussels would help countries cover their own costs of purchasing and donating items such as ammunition, missiles and tanks. It also would help pay to train Ukrainian soldiers.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-20-billion-fund-stock-ukraine-military-russia-war/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Blame Google

    Before 2022, Russia occupied 42,000 km2 (16,000 sq mi) of Ukrainian territory (Crimea, and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk), and occupied an additional 119,000 km2 (46,000 sq mi) after its full-scale invasion by March 2022, a total of 161,000 km2 (62,000 sq mi) or almost 27% of Ukraine's territory.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    If they haven't been able to increase what they are already given what makes you think this will pass ,

    But it does make it look like Europe is planning for a 5 year war ,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,270 ✭✭✭✭briany


    @johnnyskeleton

    I wonder how long the Russian people will tolerate how awful their country has become!

    I hope it won't be for much longer, but I fear it'll be a while yet. It appears that Putin's strategy of maintaining support, if not apathy, is to shield urban Russians from the war as much as he can, while sending off the rural poor, and poor rural Russians seem to have an abiding fetish for misery anyway.

    Not that this strategy is novel. You could even say it's the standard method of staffing an army, or at least the ranks of its infantry. If Putin is not stopped somehow, he'll be looking to prosecute this war until Ukraine is subjugated or until the war causes some kind of internal crisis like a demographic collapse that attentions must be urgently diverted homeward.



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  • Posts: 1,264 ✭✭✭ Willow Fat Neckerchief


    Here's the first two paragraphs from that Daily Telegraph article:

    "Since Putin’s tanks crossed into Ukrainian territory last year, three options have been on the table for how this war would end: victory for one side or the other, a frozen conflict or a negotiated settlement. The public comments made this week by Oleksiy Arestovych, a former advisor to Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, appear to indicate the last may be more likely than previously thought.

    Arestovych raised the prospect of Ukraine making territorial concessions in return for the rest of the country receiving the most cast-iron security guarantee there is: Nato membership. These comments have proved highly controversial. Not only would such an outcome be unpalatable to many in Kyiv and other European capitals, raising it as a possibility highlights a growing uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of the war – particularly amongst Ukraine’s western backers."

    Must say that Arestovychs proposal could have destabilising consequences for Ukraines current strategy if the West gets war fatigue. A smaller Ukraine, but one that gets into NATO. Would it be pushed on Zelenskyy as a possible solution? The precedent would be Finland in 1940 where it kept its independence but lost about 9% of its territory.



This discussion has been closed.
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