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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    I think they hit the bridge for the propaganda victory and to take away from the lack of gains from the faultering counteroffensive,they will get some uplift from it ,but the questions about the counter offensive will be still be asked next weeks and months down the line ,the other day it's was big video about how they took an island on the dniper which only had 10 Russians on it ,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭rogber


    Exactly. The bridge is a good hit from PR point of view but changes little in the bigger picture.

    Here's a sober assessment of how the counteroffensive is going from someone who actually knows what they're talking about. I think it's fair to say he sounds neither overly upbeat nor hopeless:




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,935 ✭✭✭zv2


    I assume the force of the explosion would be trapped by the water and go upwards.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,196 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Yeah, but isn't Russia the largest grain exporter? They'll just sell at a discount, and suddenly the rest of the world likes them again.



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 5,591 Mod ✭✭✭✭Rawr


    There may certainly be an element of that, but there is also a massive strategic edge to making the Kerch bridge unreliable to the Russians. Beyond attacks on the bridge, this is probably the safest route for them to supply their forces in Southern Ukraine. Right up to the Sea of Azov, their “land bridge” is within range for attack. Events like the past days might throw an already threadbare Russian logistics system into chaos.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,727 ✭✭✭Virgil°


    Just to highlight the importance of not overreacting to catchy negative headlines:


    “It wasn’t yesterday that 100,000 appeared. This number has existed for a long time, it can be a little more, a little less.”

    Despite its size, the group is not well prepared and motivated, Cherevatyi stressed.

    “Yes, it’s large and it’s necessary to take into account its size,” he said.

    “However, this number is not an indicator of a threat or cause for fear.”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,168 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    So they flooded the northern front with 100k mobiks and soldier's after Ukraines kharkiv breakthrough. Makes sense. Won't be easy making any gains there and could in fact be Russia who makes gain's over the next year.

    I'm on the verge of a site ban. Please don't rage bait me, I'm easily triggered especially late at night!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Citing an Ukrainian outlet there is nothing to see here there is no threat,

    When there's a clear and obvious threat,but remember before the invasion last year the Ukrainians themselves downplayed the idea of a Russian invasion and went to the point of blaming the US for ramping it up ,

    Then came the invasion that wasn't going to happen



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,196 ✭✭✭Polar101


    The way it was portrayed as yesterday was that Russia has moved in 100,000 fresh troops with a thousand tanks and artillery and that it was going to be a turning point in the war.

    It's not exactly a secret that Russia has troops on the frontlines.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    But it's been openly discussed for ages that the Russians were planning an attack in the area, which seems to be getting down played, while people have been telling us all about the collapse of Russian lines and forces for months this goes completely against that notion,if they do go on the offensive this could well cause major issues for the Ukrainians



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,196 ✭✭✭Polar101


    It could. Just like the grand offensive last summer which didn't move a lot, and now they have even less equipment and manpower.

    If Russia has the capability to go on the offensive, what have they been waiting for?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It's not a case if they have the equipment or not ,they have the men to go on the offensive,the biggest question will be If they do go on the offensive and take even more ground then what ?

    For all we know the Russians are happy to sit and watch watch the Ukrainians going through multiple meat grinders like bakmut,then make a move ,and then We will be back to breaking news f16s been discussed,a handful of f16s won't change the the current situation either



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,166 ✭✭✭Homelander


    100 thousand men and 900 tanks on a broad front isn't much of an offensive force.

    Could they take some ground? Sure. Could it be a war winning offensive? Not even close.

    What form would this offensive take? What equipment do they have? What are their logistics like?

    Russia is pretty spent as an effective invasion force in Ukraine and are really just trying to consolidate as best they can.

    The path to Ukrainian victory isn't total military victory, it's fighting Russia to a total standstill and making the invasion/occupation increasingly untenable until Russia has no choice but to accept defeat.

    They are doing a good job so far. I often see people say "but they control 25% of Ukrainian territory" as if to highlight some sliver of success on Russia's part. Putting aside the dismal performance of the Russian army, the vast majority of that territory was already held pre-invasion in Crimea and Donetsk/Luhansk.

    Their actual achievements and battlefield successes since the invasion in 2022 are pretty negligible in the overall scheme of things.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    And yet they hold large areas of Ukraine, areas Ukraine are absolutely struggling to make ground were heading into 2 months of this counter offensive and they are not much further than they started off , breaking news is single vehicles blown up is all well and good but if your in the same position as you were 12 months ago despite tens of billions in weapons and vehicles been delivered questions will start to be asked



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,239 ✭✭✭Sultan of Bling


    What % of Ukraine did the Russians hold pre February 22?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,316 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Not sure standstill will be enough. I think they really need a big victory this year. If they could take another massive chunk of territory like they did last year that could be a game changer and make the war unsustainable for Russia. If Ukraine can truly threaten Crimea then Russia may look for a fast way out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    About 40,000 sq kms prefebuary equating to 17% give or take ,

    Now they occupy 161,000 km give or take which equates to about 27% give or take



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,935 ✭✭✭zv2


    It seems to me the way to win is attrition by artillery or economic collapse in Russia, or both. If Ukraine can hold out long enough Russia might implode economically.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Russia can't exist this economically crippled forever; it's a harder one to quantify but It can't be overstated just how bad the Russian economy is doing. And the reason why is clearcut: sooner or later the war in Ukraine will officially have cost too much.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,316 ✭✭✭jackboy


    But if they withdraw the economy won’t improve. The sanctions will still apply, the west may pursue reparations. What will actually improve for them?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,630 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Well if they genuinely withdraw they wont be funding the huge cost of carrying on the war and the conscripts can go back to working.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,935 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Sanctions could get lifted with cavats and there is money and profits to be made in Russia,this is where capitalism will raise it's head ,and there's always the IMF ,it will do nobody any good having broke Russia, Ukraine and Belarus being a drain on the global markets and economies .

    Broke can crippled Russia means Ukraine will be dependant on European tax payers to fund and rebuild their economy and country



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,356 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    When suddenly articles like these start appearing in conservative western media outlets it's most likely kite flying and to start maneuvering the public for an outcome.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,070 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I dunno, like the further right posters on here (you're deluding yourself if you think it's conservative), if the telegraph are saying it, the opposite is likely to happen.

    Their track record lately is so awful it's a laughing stock.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,362 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Paywalled, can you paste the full text of the article, ta.

    The NYT has started producing similar clickbaity titles like the above, but the content is usually the same as anywhere - the counteroffensive isn't going as fast as hoped, but still making progress.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,935 ✭✭✭zv2


    Russian oligarch's money is frozen and will be used to rebuild Ukraine. Also, Ukraine is potentially rich as they have recently discovered gas reserves - in the occupied territories.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,362 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Another US package should be announced in the next days, 1.3 billion, I see a lot of drone stuff being mentioned (Phoenix ghost's, Switchblades and jamming)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,935 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It's gist is that the offensive is being held back, Ukraine has lost a lot of equipment and men in the last few weeks, it's not the usual pro Russian leftwing stance at all, he points out that anything but a defeat for Russia is a win for China and Russia and a loss for the West.


    Give them everything they need,or the price will be much higher long term, it's a call to war.



This discussion has been closed.
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