It likely won't be especially once claims get to Europen courts ,
Might be the strike on Odessa last night?
His big insight is that war fatigue means there is a ticking clock on the war. However, for Western voters, war fatigue doesnt mean "we are sick of hearing about Ukraine so stop sending them money", it means "we are sick of hearing about Ukraine just keep sending it to then and stop going on about it".
The suggestion that people once entusiastic about the war are losing momentum does however apply to one group - the pro Russian "peace" protesters we saw last year. The moneys dried up, and we no longer see useful idiots protesting for an end to the war and cheap gas for all!
The EU have given committments of support for Ukraine for the next few years. Thats baked into the pie. Trump has largely moved on from Ukraine because its not as big of a vote winner as he hoped. Ukraine will be supported for the next few years. I think we have passed an inflection point with Russian mutinies etc and now time is not on Russias side. I wonder how long the Russian people will tolerate how awful their country has become!
Oh, and by the way, just so you know how it works here and in the UK etc, we have freedom of speech and freedom of the press. This means that writers and editors can express their views freely and what is published is up to the publication and not the government. Thats how it works here, unlike how it is in Russia. Just FYI
Absolutely not. The Telegraph is the mouthpiece of the Tory party.
The British government, like others, marched their populations up a hill and now need to condition public opinion for the climbdown. The counter-offensive that was intentionally built up through a media campaign has failed, they spent all this money and you can be absolutely sure a media campaign is underway to guide the public to accepting what is all but inevitable.
No-one wants to be left holding the baton.
This is not new. It's how the media has always operated.
Reminds me of this classic Yes Minister quote:
I know exactly who reads the papers. The Daily Mirror is read by people who think they run the country; The Guardian is read by people who think they ought to run the country; The Times is read by the people who actually do run the country; the Daily Mail is read by the wives of the people who run the country; the Financial Times is read by people who own the country; the Morning Star is read by people who think the country ought to be run by another country, and the Daily Telegraph is read by people who think it is.
Sir Humphrey: Prime Minister, what about the people who read The Sun?
Bernard: Sun readers don't care who runs the country, as long as she's got big tits
I think your maths is wrong.
If 40k sqkms is 17% then 160k sqkms is nearly 70%
EU plans €20B fund to stock Ukraine’s military for the next four years.
The price tag would be a major commitment for the EU, potentially increasing by nearly five times the €4 billion the bloc has allocated thus far for similar efforts over the last year-plus.
The proposal would not involve the EU directly paying for Ukraine’s weapons. Instead, Brussels would help countries cover their own costs of purchasing and donating items such as ammunition, missiles and tanks. It also would help pay to train Ukrainian soldiers.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-20-billion-fund-stock-ukraine-military-russia-war/
Blame Google
Before 2022, Russia occupied 42,000 km2 (16,000 sq mi) of Ukrainian territory (Crimea, and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk), and occupied an additional 119,000 km2 (46,000 sq mi) after its full-scale invasion by March 2022, a total of 161,000 km2 (62,000 sq mi) or almost 27% of Ukraine's territory.
If they haven't been able to increase what they are already given what makes you think this will pass ,
But it does make it look like Europe is planning for a 5 year war ,
@johnnyskeleton
I wonder how long the Russian people will tolerate how awful their country has become!
I hope it won't be for much longer, but I fear it'll be a while yet. It appears that Putin's strategy of maintaining support, if not apathy, is to shield urban Russians from the war as much as he can, while sending off the rural poor, and poor rural Russians seem to have an abiding fetish for misery anyway.
Not that this strategy is novel. You could even say it's the standard method of staffing an army, or at least the ranks of its infantry. If Putin is not stopped somehow, he'll be looking to prosecute this war until Ukraine is subjugated or until the war causes some kind of internal crisis like a demographic collapse that attentions must be urgently diverted homeward.
Here's the first two paragraphs from that Daily Telegraph article:
"Since Putin’s tanks crossed into Ukrainian territory last year, three options have been on the table for how this war would end: victory for one side or the other, a frozen conflict or a negotiated settlement. The public comments made this week by Oleksiy Arestovych, a former advisor to Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, appear to indicate the last may be more likely than previously thought.
Arestovych raised the prospect of Ukraine making territorial concessions in return for the rest of the country receiving the most cast-iron security guarantee there is: Nato membership. These comments have proved highly controversial. Not only would such an outcome be unpalatable to many in Kyiv and other European capitals, raising it as a possibility highlights a growing uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of the war – particularly amongst Ukraine’s western backers."
Must say that Arestovychs proposal could have destabilising consequences for Ukraines current strategy if the West gets war fatigue. A smaller Ukraine, but one that gets into NATO. Would it be pushed on Zelenskyy as a possible solution? The precedent would be Finland in 1940 where it kept its independence but lost about 9% of its territory.
Biggest problem with that is there is no iron clad guarantee that they would get into NATO with significant part of their own borders occupied by Russian forces,this is why they are getting nowhere with their demands to be made NATO members before meeting any of the criteria set in a stone for membership .
But the an agreement could only happen if Ukraine has no realistic expectations of removing the Russians occupiers
Guys according to Deep state map Russia occupies the following of Ukraine
Before Feb ‘22 44k = 7.2%
After Feb ‘22 66k = 10.7%
For a total of or 108.9k = 18%
Explain the 1500 +km front line
No need. Click this link.
https://archive.ph/3r6GK.
Alright so I looked at this guys previous 'commentary'
cached/free: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:l89erkF22PcJ:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/01/battle-kyiv-will-utter-tragedy/&cd=9&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
It will shock us, but we must remain resolute in our support for Ukraine’s right to exist and increasingly support them with military hardware.
As for https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/18/ukraine-and-the-west-are-facing-a-devastating-defeat/
This gruelling endeavour was always going to take longer than the occasionally impatient
international audience was prepared to wait for. It is a military effort of immense
proportions, where mass, manpower, morale, equipment, stocks, logistics, grit and luck all
play vital roles. So far, the Ukrainians are displaying all of these military qualities.
The variable that isn’t on their side is time. In war, time is perhaps the cruellest factor one
cannot change. We saw this in NATO’s operation in Afghanistan, where the Taliban took
great delight in the retelling of a famous Afghan proverb; ”you may have the watches, but we
have the time”.
Summer will soon begin to roll into autumn. Indeed, we are already half-way through the
season. The fighting will begin to grind to a cold halt as the freezing winter saps troops’
ability to conduct high-intensity warfare. This will only give Russia more time to further
build up its defences, as it did last winter.
I'd say how easy this was to get around the paywall but I don't wanna give them a free patch idea.
Which, argument isn't terribly analogous, the Russians aren't a non-state terror group of people within their own sovereignty, they're a nuclear power invading a sovereign state. The only similarity will be 'defenses' in the form of human shielding IMHO, and use of deadlier weapons.
The source of all the consternation of the article is a disgraced former presidential advisor who tried to help Putin blame residential casualties on Ukrainian action, saying in his subsequent resignation that his comments were both erroneous and premature:
Who is described as a "Media trickster":
Oleksiy Arestovych is an archetypal fluid and unpredictable “trickster”: his biography is a patchwork of acting, intelligence work, esoteric and theological studies, political blogging, and radical politicking. (In 2005–2009, he was a member of the right-wing Brotherhood party, created by another political “trickster,” Dmytro Korchynsky.) Arestovych excelled at cultivating a protean and effervescent public image, making good on the propagandist credentials that ultimately led him to Ukrainian high politics.
I'd treat what he says and does, or any reporting or 'commentary' based on taking his commentary seriously, with a healthy spoon of salt.
What do you mean?
I don't think the length of the front line is really related to the amount of territory captured.
The last paragraph in that article is why the west won't allow Putin to claim victory in this war. Which is what Putin will do if there is a negotiated settlement that allows Russia to hold on to Ukranian territory. Also as well as emboldening China, it may encourage Putin to try again if Ukraine does not have NATO protection. The West has to stop pussy footing around and give Ukraine all it needs to kick Russia out.
The west seems to be playing there own game here,in ways it looks like they are playing the Ukrainians at the same time, Here's a few tanks and IFV, here's a few patriots,here's a few months training,were with you until the end , which means what exactly,
Defeat of Russia ? Maybe
Retaking all occupied territories from donesk and Luhansk to Crimea? Maybe
Till you can't physically retake anymore territory? Maybe
Till the next US president gets sworn in ? maybe.
We want you to win but ,we will only give you equipment in dribs and drabs but do your best were rooting for you,
Is there something else the west are looking at China ?
Reports Odessa is under attack from dones, missiles and aircraft...
A speculative opinion piece based on a hypothetical by an ex advisor, a view which isn't supported by Zelensky or leading officials.
I dont know what the rest of the article is, but going on that, it comes off as clickbait
Up to 70 years old..
I think that the economics of the war played its part in Russia's withdrawal from Afghanistan too.
Well for one thing, the costs of a failed invasion will no longer have to be met from an ever decreasing exchequer. So that's one positive aspect anyway from the Russian viewpoint.
Is the drip feed of weapons, not the wanted position but the reality of it where the collective who are sending the weapons are trying to produce it as fast. Here's 2 patriots because they've just built two. I'd imagine all the countries are keeping a close eye on their stock levels and although arming Ukraine to the hilt is the way to go, practically it's not possible. Yet anyway. I know the west (I **** hate this "the west" name) can out produce but it isn't in that mindset yet by the looks of things
Hitting Odessa seems like a big FU to anyone hoping the grain deal could be restarted. Seems like they would try damage the port to make it useless for grain transport
I don't think there's a single war in history whose prosector withstood the pressures of a crippled economy caused by said conflict. If anything, wars traditionally aid the home economy - due to all the armaments and general uptick in industry caused by the need to supply weapons, uniforms, rations, and an overall volume of "stuff"; Russia's economy - and presumably its poorer demographics - are fúcked, and if this continues you'd have to start wondering about the frontlines and what's stopping soldiers from simply giving up?
They wont last long in trench life, escpeically come winter.
They weren't going to last much longer back home in Russia either.
The West aren't just going to stop supporting Ukraine, it's just not going to happen. I can understand why the Russians thought it would happen pre-war, but when the Ukrainians didn't fall at the first hurdle the West was always going to back it strongly. The economic impact on the West hasn't been as severe as the Russians would have hoped, and the war crimes at Bucha and Irpin quickly showed it would be immoral to just cut off Ukraine.
So the big question now is, how long can Russia keep up its own war effort? A coup had to be negotiated out of just a few weeks ago, despite the widespread censorship and propaganda many Russians now know this is an unnecessary clusterfck.
Russia March 2022
Russian occupation present
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