Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Sleepy · 17-07-2023 11:10AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862022#Comment_120862022

One possible, but massive, result of this has to be the degradation of Putin's grip on power. Would his generals obey an order to launch a nuclear strike in 2023? Or would a side-arm be produced and used? I believe the latter scenario to be more likely at this stage.

17-07-2023 11:25AM

I would think the most likely conclusion of the war is through the Moscow regime failing. It nearly happened just a few weeks ago.

With the army losing a senseless war and the economy under pressure, who's to say how long the current leadership can keep a hold of power. One of its problems is there is another option for Russians, a new leadership and a withdrawal from Ukraine can improve the population's lot significantly. But when it happens is still very uncertain.

Some people (possibly Russian bots) say the Ukrainians can't conceivably take back their territory. But its more accurate to say that it's going to be impossible for Russia to hold it in the long term.

nacho libre · 17-07-2023 11:33AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862159#Comment_120862159

It was always likely. Self preservation is a motivating tool. Any general that obeyed such a command might as well put a bullet to his head for the consequences of launching a nuke would probably lead to their demise in retaliation. As well as the complete destruction of the Russian military.

17-07-2023 11:35AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862144#Comment_120862144

Their chances of selling the business would have been significantly reduced if they stopped producing and fired their staff. This is basic stuff. Which would you prefer to buy: an operating company with 30% market share or a bunch of empty factories with no staff, no clients and 0% market share?

You are allowing emotions to cloud your judgement. If you wanted them out of the country - which is what you claim - then what they were doing had the best chance of that. They stopped selling Carlsberg in Russia, they stopped exporting from Russia, they stopped advertising in Russia, they kept operating Baltika Breweries for the sake of 8000 employees and to give them the best chance of selling the business.

It took them a year to find a buyer - which is not unusual given the scale - and from the timing of this announcement it seems that the Russian government didn't approve. The buyer is unknown so I can't even speculate the why. Early speculation was that it was a Turkish buyer.

Dohnjoe · 17-07-2023 11:37AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862159#Comment_120862159

The decision would likely be made by the core group (around a half dozen men who run Russia), no sidearms would be anywhere near Putin, he's one of the most protected men on the planet.

wildefalcon · 17-07-2023 11:43AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862273#Comment_120862273

And, hopefully, he'll remain one of the most protected men in the world. In the Hague, maximum security wing.....

pixelburp · 17-07-2023 11:50AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120861822#Comment_120861822

The inability of Russia's forces to change and pivot from both its supposed logistical dependency on rail networks, as well as its doctrine emphasising artillery saturation, is very curious and speaks ill of the army's flexibility in light of an enemy attacking those aspects. Not that it's easy just to completely change an entire army's thinking - but you'd also have to imagine all that military precision counts for something. Especially given Russia still has air supremacy.

@Manic Moran you seem to be the resident military expert of repute, so am curious what - if anything - you make of Russia's inability to evolve past these constraints? Assuming I'm not completely talking out of my hat.

Jinglejangle69 · 17-07-2023 11:57AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862119#Comment_120862119

But NATO!!!

Gatling · 17-07-2023 12:01PM

9 years today Flight MH 17 was shot down by Russian forces over Ukraine using a BUK anti aircraft missile killing all 298 passengers and crew onboard

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malaysia-airlines-mh17-crash-how-will-298-deaths-change-aviation-industry.gif

Furze99 · 17-07-2023 12:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862267#Comment_120862267

"They stopped selling Carlsberg in Russia, they stopped exporting from Russia, they stopped advertising in Russia, they kept operating Baltika Breweries for the sake of 8000 employees and to give them the best chance of selling the business."

So what were the 8000 employees doing the past year+? Producing product that they weren't selling? Twiddling their thumbs? Having a giant booze up?

We've all taken a financial hit due to this outrageous invasion by Russia of it's neighbour. Every single person through inflation, through loss of some sales in my case, through pension - graph of pension was steadily up till start of 2022 - then sharp drop off the cliff of €30K. Ukrainians are paying a massive personal cost.

No sympathy for any European business that invested in Russia and then failed to put the screws on them and take losses as they watched the horrors of this war. Russia needs to economically and financially bankrupted, down to the citizens themselves.

briany · 17-07-2023 12:21PM

Is there any practicality to providing a military escort for Ukrainian grain vessels? Calls were going up for it last year when the issue was first raised.

Supposing Ukrainian shipping could make the journey represented by the red arrowed line, from Odessa to the beginning of Romanian territorial waters (about 160 KM, as the crow flies), could a NATO naval escort take them all the way to the strait?

Obviously, if were as simple as what I'm outlining, it'd be done, and Russia would presumably try to make the red arrowed journey so problematic for Ukrainian grain vessels that it can't really be attempted, but if Russia truly do walk from the grain deal, then it must be some variation of this or else trying to go via land, which was rubbished already as not having anywhere near the capacity to efficiently transport Ukraine's grain output.

Gatling · 17-07-2023 12:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862457#Comment_120862457

There's nothing stopping it from happening other the the lack of wanting to do it by the international community,at one stage we had the french carrier de Gaul off the coast of Romania,that could have given air over for any shipping in the area ,they could easily set up a naval escort to protect all shipping coming from Ukraine,but there is no Will to actually get involved, we've been watching ships full of stolen grain sail from the black sea to the Mediterranean and offload the stolen grain to other vessels who in turn sail to Russian friendly ports ,and none of them get stopped or prevented from carrying stolen grain,but yet Russia Decides what and when grain is allowed to leave,

Makes zero sense

Podge_irl · 17-07-2023 12:56PM

It would mean directly engaging with Russian forces. Absent the grain deal, the ships are a pretty valid target. As things stand, absent a deal, you'll very much struggle to get anyone to actually do the shipping.

briany · 17-07-2023 01:14PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862676#Comment_120862676

The only place Russian ships could half-way justifiably attack Turkish ships would be at the point where they enter Russian/Russian-claimed territorial waters, or Ukrainian waters, but most of the waters on the western edge of the Black Sea are either Romanian, Bulgarian or Turkish, and the other part Ukrainian. Whatever intervention that Russia could make on Ukrainian shipping would have to be done by Russia in the red arrow length above. I don't think they have the balls to touch Ukrainian shipping anywhere else. Certainly not under the protection of military escort.

Markcheese · 17-07-2023 01:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862500#Comment_120862500

I dont think any aircraft carriers are allowed through the turkish strait , at the best of times

In General ,non black sea war ships are time limited, and at the moment the turkish straits are closed to combatants warships -

The turks have a considerable navy in the black sea , but i dont really see them unilaterally imposing their own black sea freedom of movement,

Not least because they're importing energy on the cheap , and Russian trade and tourism is a big deal in their faltering economy ..

thomil · 17-07-2023 01:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862785#Comment_120862785

Whilst I agree with you insofar as that the Russians wouldn't make any overt moves, I am concerned that they might attempt to use their submarines to go after the freighters. Modern wire-guided torpedoes have quite a large range and the sonar signatures of freighters and modern warships are different enough that any torpedoes should be able to distinguish between the two of them. They probably wouldn't have any difficulties in convincing their loyal followers abroad that these explosions that sank the freighters were actually caused by Ukrainian mines. It would be so obvious that even Stevie Wonder could see through it, but I can just see them being crazy enough to try that. Don't forget that Russian forces attacked neutral shipping in the black sea in the opening stages of the 2022 war.

Overheal · 17-07-2023 01:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862880#Comment_120862880

I am concerned that they might attempt to use their submarines to go after the freighters. Modern wire-guided torpedoes have quite a large range and the sonar signatures of freighters and modern warships are different enough that any torpedoes should be able to distinguish between the two of them.

Are there no NATO sub counterparts in the Black Sea to discourage any such thing

firemansam4 · 17-07-2023 01:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120861966#Comment_120861966

I'm not saying that the west should cut or stop sending arms to Ukraine. Im saying there needs to be an honest assessment of what arms the Ukranians can expect in a timely fashion, and discussions as to what looks likely, that there is not going to be nearly enough sent to enable Ukraine to drive Russians from their land including Crimea. So if this is the case then the question of negotiations has to be brought up as an option for the future.

What would I like to see happen?

I would like to see the gloves come off, and far more longer range precision weapons, drones, tanks ect. The question of training and supply of F16's should have been on the agenda well before now, and every effort should have been made to supply as much air power as possible. These announcements being made now smack of far too little too late.

I think the west has done enough in regards to helping Ukraine defend what they have been able to so far. But I do not believe they are, or will get enough support to take back all their territory. Thats my thinking on it, I would love to be proved wrong, but I just can't see it.

pixelburp · 17-07-2023 01:41PM

Presumably trying to blackmail the world over important grain deliveries isn't a ploy that has much legs? At best they can be belligerent, drag their feet and prolong the deliveries out of spite; but beyond that? If they started intentionally attacking ships and supplies then they'd be actively attacking the world's food infrastructure - and akin to dropping a nuclear bomb would doubtless(?) incur a heavy response from NATO, the US and maybe even bystanders like Turkey itself.

briany · 17-07-2023 01:47PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862880#Comment_120862880

How far can Russia go with the whole 'grey zone' thing, really? If they could hit a ship with a torpedo and say it wasn't them, despite whatever traces a torpedo leaves pointing to the contrary, then what's to stop them claiming anything and everything?

"We didn't strike that U.S. carrier. It was hit by a meteor. It was hit by a stray Ukrainian missile. It was faulty."

Russia can deny whatever it wants, but objective reality lives beyond the picture that their words try to paint. We can't live in a world where Russian culpability rests on Russia admitting to their culpability, because that's a game they're not going to play, and they've been laughing at the West for our impotent indignation while they commit outrages that they deny a hand in. Who'd have known it'd be that simple to get away with things, or just not face any big retaliation?

thomil · 17-07-2023 01:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862947#Comment_120862947

Oh, there are, the Turkish and Romanian Navies are at the top of my list for that. However, the conditions in the Black Sea actually favor submarines, especially diesel-electric subs such as the Russian Kilo or Lada classes. These boats are extremely quiet and hard to detect when operating on battery power and below 6-7 knots, turning into little more than a hole in the water. Add to that the swirling currents caused by the Black Sea "undersea river" and the numerous actual rivers emptying out into the sea, as well as significant shipping traffic and a sound deflecting thermal layer around 50-100 meters below the surface, and you have a pretty challenging environment for ASW operations.

Would it still be possible to detect them? Sure, active sonar is a thing, and carpeting the "free" parts of the Black Sea with sonobuoys pinging away should flush out, or at least scare away a potentially hostile sub, as well as giving every bit of marine life in the area tinnitus for the rest of their lives, but there's no guarantee that it will happen. And finally, there's the question of what would happen after a sub had been detected after launching a torpedo or sinking a merchant ship. Would whoever is tracking the sub, be it a frigate, an ASW helo launched from said frigate, or a maritime patrol aircraft, even have the authority to return fire and drop a torpedo on the Russian sub in return? That's the big question here and I'm not sure that the government in Ankara would be too comfortable in delegating that to the individual captains or COs of their Black Sea units.

thomil · 17-07-2023 02:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120863010#Comment_120863010

The thing with modern torpedoes is that they are nowhere near as obvious as a missile. This isn't World War 2 anymore, where you have a "fish" travel relatively close to the surface and leave a clear trail of bubbles that can allow you to get a visual fix on the launch point. Pretty much all modern submarine torpedoes are wire guided and can be remote-controlled from their parent submarine. In addition, from my understanding, a lot of these torpedoes don't need to be forced out of their tubes by pressurized air anymore. It still happens, but with modern torpedoes, it is also possible to just flood the tube, open the outer doors and then effectively "float" the torpedo out. It can then be manually steered into position at low speed, and only become active once it reaches its final attack position. By the time the submarine cuts the guidance wires and weapon goes active and accelerates to a speed where it's obvious on sonar, it might well be ten to fifteen kilometers away from its launch position, potentially even on a different bearing. Given the existence of systems such as the US Mk. 60 CAPTOR mine, which is basically a Mk. 46 Torpedo in a special underwater launch capsule, this would give Russia all the plausible deniability it needs to keep the countries in the developing world on their side and make the West/Ukraine look like the bad guys.

zv2 · 17-07-2023 02:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120863179#Comment_120863179

Following an attack on civilians recently Zelenskyy said they would retaliate in a way that will be 'noticable'. Hmmm...

Furze99 · 17-07-2023 02:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862955#Comment_120862955

Well that's a different way of putting it. Yes I think giving Ukraine a clear timetable for what military assistance they can rely on would be useful logically and help them to make the best calculations. Maybe that is happening behind the scenes but also it may suit all parties, both Ukraine and those states supplying munitions and equipment, if there's a fog of war on the exact nature of the practicalities. Russians have intelligence operands as well and keeping them confused and guessing is no bad thing.

Manic Moran · 17-07-2023 02:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120862337#Comment_120862337

For starters, they do not have air supremacy. They may have air superiority, but given the overall lack of aviation activity over the battlefield (Other than UASs, which are in their thousands every day from both sides), I'm not sure they even have that much.

I'm afraid that if anyone knows just what the Russians are going to do in order to change their procedures, they're not telling me. I will observe, however, that any organisational problem in an army can be dealt with in one of several ways. In the US, it's called "DOTMLPF", the solution could be new doctrine, a new thing, different organazation, improved training, or any number of other solutions. They have already pivoted their thinking once or twice, and this has been a long year of learning and adaptation, for both Russia and Ukraine. That the Russians will change again is inevitable. If it is successful, obviously, is another matter entirely.

With respect to companies leaving Russia, I'd observe that there is a third possibility in addition to selling or just shutting down, which my own employer carried out. We're in software, and three of our four major dev studios were in St Petersburg, Russia, Minsk, Belarus and Kiev, Ukraine (The last is Chicago, USA). Once the war started, obviously the Kiev office shut down immediately for a few months (Plus we relocated families out of Kiev), and serious decisions needed to be taken for the others. It took a couple of months to figure out just how to do it. We were already moving folks out of Minsk to Europe (Vilnius and Belgrade) because of the political situation there, so we could accelerate that, but what to do with the St Petersburg group? They were a valued part of the corporate family, we couldn't just close the office and put people on the street. What sort of employer does that?

The answer was brutally simple and worthy of King Solomon. We just split the company into two and cut the Russians (And remaining Minskians) loose to make their way on their own in the Russian market. The St Pete studio (which was independent before we acquired it) reverted to being independent, the studio head became CEO of the new company which reverted to its previous name. They had the use of the code as it existed at the time, and were free to use it to make money in Russia as best they could to keep themselves with income. Main company, HQ'd in Cyprus, continues to conduct operations in the rest of the world. The codes are deviating slightly now over time, and, of course, as separate companies, there is no longer any money entering or leaving Russia/Belarus.

Carlsberg can, in theory, do the same thing with Baltika. Just cut them loose, and write off the loss. The employees can continue to be employed, they can do business in the Russian economy (what's left of it), and Carlsberg leaves the Russian market. Simple. Expensive as hell, but it can be done.