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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 480 ✭✭Ramasun


    Zelensky needs the World, especially China, to know Putin is playing with fire. God forbid Kim Jung Un got ideas on leveraging a nuclear disaster on the Korean peninsula.

    Putin is running out of credible threats to the West to stop the flow of ammunition and modern equipment. His bluff has been called on all his red lines from Himars to tanks and now F-16s are coming.

    A Nuclear disaster at Zaporizhizha, with unpredictable consequences, would be the end for Putin and anyone associated with him. Chernobyl was an accident and it brought down the Soviet Union.

    NATO conventional retaliatory strikes when radioactive dust starts falling on NATO countries. They've promised to take out the Black Sea fleet and other strategic infrastructure. Russia can't respond without triggering a planet killing nuclear exchange.

    If Putin was that mad he'd drop a nuke in the North Sea or off the coast of Donegal first as an opening gambit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 480 ✭✭Ramasun


    That would be an interesting conversation with a Nuclear plant technician.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 167 ✭✭Fastpud


    Add a much salt as you feel necessary but twitter igorsushko has posted


    ”Rumor: Ramzan 'TikTok' Kadyrov, Putin-appointed dictator and terrorizer of Chechnya is on his deathbed and can no longer speak.”



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I haven't seen the interview, but what did he mean 'we don't have the weapons in our inventory'?

    He means the arms shipments are not sustainable. Some countries which support Ukraine are coming under internal pressure to halt shipments because they're worried about depleting their own arsenal too much.

    For example Germany is reported to be down to 20,000 artillery shells. That's a joke, that would last a day or two in Ukraine.

    He's speaking figuratively. Of course there are some new systems which can be given. But to sustain a war you need a broad supply incl continuous re-supply of ammo for existing weapons.

    Russia are expending weapons and ammo at a high rate also, of course. But it's reasonable to assume the former Air Vice-Marshal has factored that into his assessment. For example the claim that Russia are running out of missiles featured heavily in Western press for the first year of the war. More recently many analysts started to walk back on that claim.

    it is unrealistic to expect Russia to ever “run out” of missiles. Despite sanctions and export controls, it appears likely that Russia will be able to produce or otherwise acquire the long-range strike capacity necessary to inflict significant damage upon Ukraine’s people, economy, and military.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,415 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I haven't seen any reports of internal pressure causing countries that support Ukraine from halting shipments.

    Some baltic countries have literally emptied their armories of artillery. There's been record arms packages announced from counties over the past few months. Since January there's been a massive increase in arms.

    The shell issue is still a serious issue though. Shell production should have been put on a war footing and just pump them out for Ukraine.

    The claim about Russia running out of missiles keeps getting dragged up. It's not like one day they will fire their last missile.

    Before the war, they had a stockpile, that's pretty much depleted and they rely on newly produced missiles. Hence the reason the mass missile attacks occur less often and with less missiles and needing Iranian drones to accompany them. Ukraine literally use to post a monthly chart of the estimated number of Russian missiles in stock, the number produced each month and how many have been used by Russia. Hard to believe analysts didn't know that.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,085 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Yeah sub continent India 1946 led to massive ethnic cleansing due to the brits (Cyril Radcliffe and lord mountbatten) drawing lines on maps.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,046 ✭✭✭✭briany


    If there's one thing we should have learned from following this conflict the last nearly year and a half, it's that we don't know what either side truly has in reserve or what their logistical situation looks like. You know, it's almost as if that information is quite sensitive and that it's very much in the interest of the participants to obfuscate the hell out of it. With respect to that, the only way we ordinary people are going to get a really accurate picture of what the state of the forces actually looks like on this day will probably be in a history book.

    Why would Sean Bell or any representative of the British armed forces, a noted ally of Ukraine, go on television and try to give an accurate picture of Ukrainian supply if that picture was a pessimistic one? What would there be to gain? All it would do is boost Russian morale and lower that of Ukraine's. It would also have major, major implications for Europe in general, essentially telling Russia (perhaps as part of a military alliance with China) that they could simply attrition warfare their way across eastern Europe - the West has not the supply to keep up. This would be a big no-no.

    "Appear strong when you are weak, and weak when you are strong"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 480 ✭✭Ramasun


    Britain was straight out the gates in supporting Ukraine. Which has been great for Ukraine as it piled pressure on other countries.

    However, knowing what we know about their political situation, it was primarily for show.

    Initially for Boris Johnson it was a 'go to' diversion when one of his scandals hit the news and the Def. Sec Ben Wallace has been building a political future off it. Rishi Sunak is using the platform a bit less but you don't spend that much on two aircraft carriers with no support fleet if you're not going to double down on conventional capabilities you don't really have.

    Britain has donated a lot of kit, but it's one off Daily Mail photo opp. stuff. It's offloading equipment they no longer have to maintain but they're not increasing their orders for replacement stocks.

    The rest of Europe is tooling up quietly but in a serious way. Bulgaria has an established munitions industry and they are now opening up production lines for Ukraine.

    Britain's material input will diminish but their intelligence contribution is worth a lot more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Yesterday I heard an academic who I had never heard of before, Stephen Kotkin speaking on the Ezra Klein podcast. I found him very insightful. One of those people who's talking about things that I've already heard seen and read about a bunch of times and yet he's able to impart new wisdom about them. I'd recommend giving it a listen:





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,629 ✭✭✭denismc




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,782 ✭✭✭yagan


    Just google "Putin/Bush, Crawford Ranch" and you'll be getting a hell of a back story about how they championed Putin as an ally in their war on Terror.

    Putin no doubt saw the Iraq invasion as justification to invade anywhere and anytime he wanted without fear of the US.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 843 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    In total, about 3,000 Hurricanes were sent to the USSR between 1941 and 1944 to support the Soviet war effort. Most were either destroyed in combat or dismantled later for parts.

    But some Hurricanes were deliberately broken up and buried after the war so the Soviets did not have to pay back the United States. Under the Lend-Lease legislation, the USSR was required to pay for any donated military equipment that remained intact after hostilities ended.

    Ungrateful bastards. Man I wish the allies just let them get steam rolled by Germany.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 480 ✭✭Ramasun




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,616 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Is he saying for the West to continue supplies at the rate needed they would need to move their economies to a war footing? This is what Putin had been gambling on all along. If the west had gone all in this warning would not have needed to be sounded at all. In any case I think he is wrong, I still believe Ukraine will achieve a sudden breakthrough at some stage and the Russian resistance will collapse. If they had air supremacy the breach would happen far sooner. As a poster said a few days ago look what happened at Normandy, in the earlier stages progress was glacial then suddenly there was rapid advancements.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    The invasion of Iraq was a monumental geo-political own goal with ripples to this day on how the USA is seen in this world. I sometimes wonder what percentage of tankies would be of a different persuasion had that reckless invasion not happened.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,767 ✭✭✭Asdfgh2020


    What relevance has this fact to anything that is happening today….it’s hardly like the Ukraine or Russians can ‘fire them up’ and use them..🤔



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,782 ✭✭✭yagan


    I think it actually revealed the US's post cold war attitude to the world in that it never believed in an international order and they started losing interest in Iraq once the Mission Accomplished banner was unfurled on that aircraft carrier.

    Iraq wasn't reckless or an own goal if the intention was to reestablish its sense of being able to go where it liked when it liked. Bush Jr gave tacit approval to Putin to do the same in Russia's backyard. The response to Crimea should have happened when Russia bombed Georgia in 08, but the US was still keeping Putin on side as a regional ally.

    Post edited by yagan on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,015 ✭✭✭jmreire


    You don't even have to go as far as India......even the Iron Lady, Margaret Thatcher admitted that Churchill made a major blunder when he partitioned Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 843 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    The thread isn't exclusively about the Ukraine war ya know



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 843 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    Russia 1985–1999: TraumaZone: What It Felt Like to Live Through The Collapse of Communism and Democracy

    Since the late 1980s, BBC news crews have filmed all across the Soviet Union and Russia, but only a tiny portion of their footage was ever used for news reports. The rest was left unseen on tapes in Moscow. Filmmaker Adam Curtis obtains these tapes and uses them to chronicle the collapse of the Soviet Union, the rise of capitalist Russia and its oligarchs, and the effects of this on Russian people of all levels of society, leading to the rise to power of Vladimir Putin, and today’s invasions of Ukraine. The films take you from inside the Kremlin, to the frozen mining cities in the Arctic circle, to tiny villages of the vast steppes of Russia, and the strange wars fought in the mountains and forests of the Caucasus.

    I haven't watched it yet but anything by Adam Curtis is brilliant



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,690 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Untitled Image

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,534 ✭✭✭Virgil°


    I like Michael Clarkes analysis. He seems to be fairly unbiased to either side and knowledgeable.

    Sean Bell however. In my armchair general opinion is an absolute fool. Since the very start of the war he's been banging on about how Russia won't be beaten and Ukraine can only lose slowly. He was on Sky calling for peace talks as Russia was flattening Sieverodonetsk. He's constantly harping on about how Russia should be let keep the Donbas and Crimea and the land its stolen for the sake of negotiating with Putin. An absolutely abhorrent proposition unless we want to end up in WW3 in a few years. And one the Ukranians would never go for.

    He's constantly been pessimistic about Ukraines potential to achieve anything at all. It may be true that the offensive won't achieve as much as some hoped as quickly as hoped. But I'm relatively confident Sean is talking out his arse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,015 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Gives a fairly good idea of how and why Russia got to be the way it is today..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    I watched that when it came out. It's excellent. Really gives you a sense for the absolute chaos of the 1990s and the absolute pillaging of the country by the oligarchs that emerged. Their greed was rapacious and entirely at the expense of the common people. The American's really dropped the ball too. They effectively allowed libertarian economists to advise "shock therapy" to try and move the country from communist to capitalist. It was a failed experiment and paved the way for Putin to crush the nascent free press and opposition in the name of "stability".

    The other thing I took from it was the rise of Boris Yeltsin. Nowadays he's mostly seen as the doddering drunk making a show of himself at formal occasions. Before all that though he was a deft political operator who ran rings around Gorbachev. He also laid the path for Putin though, in that he essentially took power away from parliament and placed it in the hands of the President after a constitutional crisis in 1993 where he literally sent the tanks in to fire on the parliament who were thwarting him and trying to impeach him.

    Beyond all that though are the many small stories showing regular people just living their lives and trying to get by. Since it's Russia, lots of them are odd and lots of them are heart-breaking.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Out of curiosity, is anyone else kind of sick of all the Windows and Tea jokes? They were funny in the beginning but after hearing them for the umpteenth time they've gotten a bit old.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 480 ✭✭Ramasun


    Ukraine can learn a lot from Western organisation and tactics but the Ukrainians are fighting a modern war against a larger entrenched force without air supremacy. How would these guys react if an enemy drone appeared over their command post?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,443 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Usually a reliable source. But he says himself..... skepticism

    But let's keep an eye

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,574 ✭✭✭rogber


    File alongside:

    Belarus is entering the war on Friday.

    Kiev will fall in 3 days.

    Putin has cancer and two months to live.

    Etc etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,509 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    It's better than listening to insufferable bores and hipster stooges droning on about macOS and Coffee.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Don't forget:

    • My secret source had to talk pilots out of dropping nuclear arms when they were in the air
    • Progozhin has seized a nuclear arms depot and I'm including a picture of the wrong place


    His problem is that he just repeats every rumour he hears and doesn't do any due diligence. Who knows maybe Kadyrov really is dying but I'll wait til I hear it from a more credible source before I believe there is any substance to it.



This discussion has been closed.
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