Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Just go on google maps and see for yourself they are just like us in that in 91 they seized an opportunity to better their lives and be self determined. Their houses and neighbourhoods say a lot about them they dreamed the western dream and caught up rapidly. The rancidity above them got afraid of the idea of serfs becoming nothing more than a tit to be squeezed and invaded Ukraine. But if it weren't for the corrupt politicians in the EU and UK the russians would have had to just sit back and watch.

I have to laugh at the vox pops from Russia where the serfs say "We live well here - we are well looked after by the state and have everything we want", all the while living in a kip of a country and in what we would call poverty. Total brainwashing /gaslighting going on.

This is not true. There's no reason the quality of housing would be better in Ukraine. Ukraine is easily the poorest country in Europe, far poorer than Russia. Russian per-capita GDP was consistently 3 times that of Ukraine before the war. Since Putin invaded that disparity is much greater. Another common trope is that most Russians don't have internal toilets - another fallacy. In Russian cities, (where the vast majority of Russians live) almost all dwellings have toilets, as anyone who has visited there will attest to. Obviously, in terms of quality of housing, there's a huge rural-urban divide, with toilets less common in rural areas, but this divide exists in Ukraine too. 

I have far too many people I know who are VPs in big banks for it to be a high title.

I guess the point I'm making is that when people say that the standard of living is much better in Ukraine, it's because they're usually making a false comparison: they're comparing Rural Russia with Urban Ukraine. Urban standard of living is much better than Rural, in both Russia and Ukraine. 

Just a little something for anyone who still thinks Russia is a "Powerfull" country.

This is one of the best articles I've read in quite a while, this is the kind of stuff folks in governments should be reading and taking notice of. The clearer your view is, the better the decisions you make are.

By Philips O'Brien (no paywall)

That's the thing about lying it gets harder and harder to remember previous lies, so tripping yourself up is certain.

...

The counter-offensive into the south won't work unless Ukraine gets more help. There are just too many mines, too many anti-tank weapons, too much artillery, too many bodies, an aviation threat, and lines of logistics that Ukraine aren't able to target.

The above map indicates the range they can currently target with HIMARS. There are clearly vast swathes of occupied territory that are out of range where we know the Russians operate airfields, logistics centres, ammo dumps, army HQ's, etc.

People will say but what about Storm Shadow? These certainly have range, but based on their sparing use so far, my guess is the British have supplied only a small number of these, my guess is in the very low double digit numbers. Nowhere near enough to target everything the Ukrainians would like to hit.

If Ukraine are provided ATACMS AND in a decent number AND some time reasonably soon, I think it give a more realistic chance at the counter-offensive succeeding. Being able to target Saky airfield would seriously disrupt Russian aviation which is currently wreaking havoc with impunity on advancing Ukrainian armour. Having greater ability to hit supply depots just out of range of HIMARS will hit the Russian logistics. Forcing the Russian navy out of Sevastopol would impede their navy. There's of course the Kerch bridge too.

So as in Kherson, where HIMARS had a critical impact in forcing the Russians to abandon the right side of the bank, ATACMS could potentially do the same for the current counter-offensive.

Will Ukraine get in in time, and in the numbers they require?

The counteroffensive is more like attrition than the rout we were hoping for. I think the war will continue like this until the Russians are worn down. Ukraine needs lots of artillery for this, until the Russian line breaks.

It does make you wonder if the prolonged drip drip of weapons to Ukraine by the west was to slowly destroy the russian military and bankrupt the regime rather then out of abundance of fear of provoking Russia… either way the delay is costing Ukraine big time

Edit: Wrong thread

At least it would do for breakfast.

Very true. Just shows the difficulties when trying to negotiate with that miindset.

I was thinking the same thing. Static defenses are tough to break through, but if a breakthrough happens it needs to be countered with a flexible mobile reserve, otherwise all you have is a lot of units in static positions waiting to be rolled up or encircled. How many elite mobile formations do the Russians have to fill that role?