Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Hostomel airport was a primary target for the Russians who planned to fly troops and heavy equipment in there, just 20km north of the city centre. Hostomel was home to the world's largest transport plane so its runway was certainly capable of handling large aircraft. If the Russians had held the airport (and cleared its perimeter of Ukrainian forces) the traffic jam of tanks on the roads north of Kyiv would not have prevented the Russians bringing in the troops and equipment to take Kyiv or, at the very least, to clear Ukrainian forces from the roads north of Kyiv and thereby freeing up the northern route for the tanks.

So the Ukrainians snatched victory from the jaws of defeat but my point remains: the utter confusion in the West about developments in Russia indicates that the US do not have a top-level source in the Russian MoD or within Putin's inner circle. Obviously, western media were even more in the dark.

Putin sees Western conspiracies everywhere, even in Prigozhin's astonishing mutiny, but the reality is the Western powers were baffled bystanders last weekend. Putin's paranoia will reach new levels now that he knows the real threat comes from his own inner circle.

If China and the Central Asians begin to pull back from Putin, that might be the signal for a palace coup. The Kremlin sent a Deputy FM hotfoot off to Beijing and he claimed to have got China's backing (the media largely swallowed that line) but the Chinese response was very cool, just saying it was "an internal matter" for Russia. This whole episode has humiliated Putin in the eyes of Xi Jinping who would never tolerate a bunch of mercenaries like Wagner. Watch the Central Asians who were already getting uppity with Putin and moving closer to China. That may be the next shoe to drop.

I would imagine multiple meals are prepared for Putin, all of which are tested and one of which is chosen randomly to mitigate that risk. Also, I would strongly suspect that every person who works as part of Putin's entourage is told in no uncertain terms what fate awaits them, and their family, and their extended family and friends should they betray him in any way.

I would wager, on a domestic level (and due to his high level of paranoia), and the number of people he's had killed, he is probably one of the most guarded people in the planet. Apparently, according to insiders, this accelerated in 2020 due to the pandemic (hence the long table). Reportedly he now only receives "certain" news from select inner sources, and doesn't access outside or internet information any more.

Think I have read that the Soviets had an army of functionaries (a branch of KGB) for looking after needs of the Party Secretary and big cheeses (possibly down to having "grooms of the stool" to wipe backsides...only half joking) so I suppose Putin recreated (or retained/expanded?) this bubble of security, luxury + privilege for himself.

He (Blinken) would deny having advance knowledge even if they had, as it implies they had a hand in it. With this in mind Putin will be keen to put it out that the West was behind it to get the Russian public behind him. As for the Battle of Kyiv,no doubt the Ukranians fought fiercely but they were aided by the west in terms of Intelligence and weaponry to achieve it. The Spetnatz had their reputation destroyed in that battle. You never hear of the SAS being decimated in a battle. I still think there was a deal with Prigozhin, why else have the charges been dropped against Prigozhin and an amnesty given to Wagner fighters who sign contracts with the Russian MOD. That sounds very much like a deal to me. I agree Putin has to renege on the deal or else others will be emboldened to try and unseat Putin.

To me it could suggest two things: the west don't have a top level spy in Wagner. Neither does the Russian MOD. If the west do have a top level spy in the Russian MOD,they would prefer the public perception to be they are clueless in this instance, because they will want to protect the source. Secondly to admit they knew about what was going on would be a propaganda coup for Putin. Putin is desperate to blame the west for this to get the Russian public behind him. You could well be right that there is no high ranking spy, but it would not be a shock if there was- afterall look what went on in that world during the Cold War.

Sorry what's a 95?

Nine to Five. Workin' for The Man. The daily grind.

etc

I think within the next few weeks we will see a rapid advance like we saw in Kherson a while back. The Ukranians are probing for weakness and have kept troops in reserve for when a significant breach is made. Already we have seen a Donbas village that was in Russian hands since 2014 being retaken according to the British MOD. Even if i am wrong about a rapid advance, Ukraine are going to win this war in time simply because if Russia achieves any kind of victory it will upset the international order and give a green light to others who want to invade their neighbours. A Russian victory would likely see the Dollar plummet in value due to America's authority being weakened. The fact Putin did not realise all this shows his hubris overrode his ability to think clearly. Sergei ,his security chief, likely knew it, but as we see in that video I posted earlier he was afraid to tell his boss what he really thought. Which just about sums Putin's regime up and why he is on the road to ruin or maybe the Hague eventually!

If the west had gone all in Ukraine could have achieved this victory sooner and lost less men, but in the main the west have always been reactive rather than pro active.