Of course. Great tune too.
I think the pentagon leaks said America have high level spies in the Russian MOD and the Wagner group.
it’s also actually a Saab model, but I think dolly has the right context here
Is that not Rick Stein maybe they’re opening a fish restaurant in Moscow
Also to be so adamant that the invasion was coming in the face of disagreement from almost everyone in Europe and Ukraine themselves and to publish it so openly they must have been incredibly sure of their intel. Whether that is someone in the MOD or 5 photocopiers doesn't really matter.
I don't know what in that story makes anyone think the recapture of hostomel airport was so essential though. It was certainly helpful, but also somewhat inevitable because like much of the rest of the invasion it was a terribly planned op that was never likely to succeed in the long term.
It's likely the US and other foreign countries have multiple sources and taps in the Kremlin. How high and how deep they go we don't know. Also, they don't necessarily need someone right beside Putin, a picture can be built from having intel from levels within the FSB, Rosgvardia, Kremlin staffers, GRU, etc. On top of that, if they had strong intel it's unlikely they would put it at risk for column inches in papers, only for very serious threats to national security.
Neither you nor I nor anyone else knows what is going on behind the scenes with Putin, lukashenko and Wagner. The whole thing is bizarre and only time will tell what everyone's purpose is.
If you can read that article and still believe that the recapture of Hostomel airport was not essential for the defence of Kyiv then I would be wasting everyone’s time trying to convince you otherwise.
How many times must I repeat my original point - that the Americans, alone among the Western powers, warned Kyiv of the impending invasion? But nothing I’ve seen suggests that the Americans had a top level source in the Russian MoD, the point I have been trying to make. US advice about protecting Hostomel can be explained simply as sound military analysis - protect all your capital’s airports- and required no special knowledge of the enemy’s plans.
But if you think the Americans have a source in the Russian MoD who is telling them what what went on in the Kremlin last weekend, you are blind to the obvious befuddlement in Washington and in the Western media.
I’ll leave it there.
Yes it is.
Perun talks about this exact thing in his latest video. I have it lined up to begin at the relevant section below
I think within the next few weeks we will see a rapid advance like we saw in Kherson a while back. The Ukranians are probing for weakness and have kept troops in reserve for when a significant breach is made. Already we have seen a Donbas village that was in Russian hands since 2014 being retaken according to the British MOD. Even if i am wrong about a rapid advance, Ukraine are going to win this war in time simply because if Russia achieves any kind of victory it will upset the international order and give a green light to others who want to invade their neighbours. A Russian victory would likely see the Dollar plummet in value due to America's authority being weakened. The fact Putin did not realise all this shows his hubris overrode his ability to think clearly. Sergei ,his security chief, likely knew it, but as we see in that video I posted earlier he was afraid to tell his boss what he really thought. Which just about sums Putin's regime up and why he is on the road to ruin or maybe the Hague eventually!
If the west had gone all in Ukraine could have achieved this victory sooner and lost less men, but in the main the west have always been reactive rather than pro active.
Timeline: 06-July 1944
Report: the amount of territory the allies have captured since their amphibious landings on the Normandy coast is miniscule. The German forces have foiled multiple British and Canadian assaults on Caen. The American forces are stuck in the bocage and are taking large casualties. There seems little possibility of a breakout and supply lines are strained.
(6 weeks later they were in Paris. 2 weeks after that they were in Brussels and the end of the war was in sight)
First slow, then quick. 😉
I've read it. I'm not sure how you think it supports your point.
A) The US knew of and warned Ukraine of the upcoming invasion but Ukraine did not believe them. There is nothing the US can do about that.
B) It says nothing about if the Russians had held Hostomel the city would have fallen. Its a fanciful idea. A single runway simply is not that important. Russia could not have brought in enough troops to storm the city from there under the circumstances.
Russians took the airport because Ukraine did not trust US intel and didn't expect the attack. They had, however, made preparations all the same so that the attack on hostomel was not as big a blow as it might have been. The lines of tanks happened because the Russian advance was terribly planned and relied on limited resistance. The recapturing of Hostomel was not the cause of that - you don't invade or circle a city from one airstrip. As for the attack on the presidential palace, the info is sparse but it seems a fairly cock-a-hoop attempt that was never likely to succeed.
Since we are discussing WaPo articles however, here is another one explaining that the US did in fact know everything that was about to happen
Hoping Ukraine can do the same kind of thing along this southern front. It begs the question what kind of fortifications the Russians had in place to slow Ukraine's advance in that region. Was it of a similar level to what Ukraine is facing now? If so, what tactics did Ukraine employ to overcome them and could they be used in their current offensive?
Does anyone know if the rail line through Tokmak is still operating freely? Given the importance of rail lines to Russian logistics, I assume that it is worthy of repeated HIMARs strikes on bridges, if not the general track?
How far behind the front lines would the M777s and other artillery be placed? Robotyne, recently retaken, is 25km for that rail line. Orikhiv is 15km further back and the rail line would be within range of a Caesar operating from there.
True, but to be fair you could also phrase it in this way: the amount of territory the Russians captured in their Winter offensive was miniscule in relation to their ambition. The amount of territory which Ukraine has captured in its Summer offensive is similarly miniscule, although less so.
Ukraine need something to breach Russian lines and really put them in disarray.
I just worry that Russia have had too long to dig in. Everybody has been focused on big (or interesting) events like Bakhmut, the dam, now this Prigozhin thing, meanwhile the Russians have been creating the most extensive defensive works in Europe since WWII.
The trenches etc can be seen on satellite. Minefields can't, but you have to assume they have mined the place just as extensively. That's certainly what it seems from videos these last few weeks.
It's frustrating that this was allowed to happen. I know Ukraine had to be trained and armed etc but it all happened way too slowly.
German commanders said that a Red Army bridgehead had to be counterattacked and destroyed quickly because once the Soviets were dug in, they would be a nightmare to dig out.
Firstly, NATO is looking at more effective weapons to help Ukraine speed up the process of retaking the country. Not as fast as most would like, but training on the F-16s looks to be happening.
Secondly, it appears that NATO strategy is not to chase Russia out of Ukraine in a quick manner but to wear Russia down until the Putin regime falls and Russia withdraws or comes to the table with a much more modest set of proposals. Is this a cynical way to go about things when people are getting blown up by mines and dying in all sorts of other horrible ways? One could make that argument, but we're dealing with a large power in Russia under Putin who is incredibly spiteful and ruthless. I think they would blow that power plant if they found themselves on the end of an imminent rout along the southern front, for example. They may not go with nuclear weapons, but will happily commit every massacre and create every ecological disaster they can if they think they're about to lose the small hold they do have on the territory of Ukraine.
Thirdly, I think we should take a moment to appreciate that the West has given Ukraine a massive amount of military aid so far, such that it's pretty much the main reason (apart from the Ukrainian soldiers' tenacity) why Zelenskyy isn't currently sitting in a Russian jail cell (optimistic, here, to think they wouldn't kill him without trial) and a puppet government hasn't been running the country for the last year.
It's often been said he manifests the dark triad. Narcissism, Machiavellianism and psychopathy. I doubt he suffers much anxiety at all compared to normal people. Russia seems to let people like him rise to the top much like corporate CEOs.
Also worth noting is people who have been identified as internet trolls show similar traits. It would explain the mutual attraction.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/ie/blog/out-the-darkness/202203/the-danger-dark-triad-leaders
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/20563051211021382
It's not an action movie, the lines aren't going to suddenly break en masse, it's massive defense in depth. The minefields are a huge problem. The more kit they have the better, but in a best case scenario it's still going to take Ukraine a long time. Could go on for years. Or the Russian military could start to collapse from the pressure, we've already seen plenty of cracks.
Also keep in mind Ukraine has liberated over 250 square km in several weeks with bad weather and not committing the bulk of it's offensive forces, far more than Russia took in 6 months.
Nine to Five. Workin' for The Man. The daily grind.
etc
Would it not be the case that the ‘slow start ‘ is explained as follows :-
(1) go slow at the beginning to find out what’s ahead rather than going head first/ headlong into the offensive
(2) maybe it’s strategic - to go in ‘ first gear ‘ at the beginning and suddenly to go inti ‘third/ fourth gear and catch the Russians flatfooted
(3) the pace is bound to be slow at the beginning because that’s where the most difficult ‘stumbling blocks’ are re decagons teeth, trenches, mines, etc, but once these have been ‘ neutralised the pace of advance should significantly increase.
In summary, I expect the UKr army has all this worked out re applying different arnaments , attack strategies at the appropriate times
Sorry what's a 95?
The Russians have a challenge to retreat and the Ukrainians don’t exactly want to sacrifice any body so without air support movement forward movement is going to be hard won. After D day the feeling was the war was won and people didn’t want to take a bullet it reduced forward momentum making it more difficult to move forward that otherwise may have been the case.
During WW2 the British deliberately witheld intelligence about upcoming attacks from some of their own ships in order to cover the fact they'd cracked Enigma. I can't imagine any intelligence agency (western or otherwise) would be stupid enough to reveal a high ranking spy in the Kremlin for no other purpose than to keep the public informed. If Biden and his Chiefs of Staff knew what was going on because of a human asset, they were never going to discuss it outside of the the Situation Room. Same for any other government...
I hope that all this silliness with Prigozhin isn't distracting from what's really important here. The Ukraine counter-offensive needs more help.
Things were never going to be easy but it's clear more needs to be done to crack the Russian lines of defence. People mocked the slow pace of the Wagner offensive at Bakhmut, but in reality Ukraine's is going at about the same speed. We've seen fighting for three and a half weeks with Ukraine advancing about 1km a week. You can't extrapolate that progress (cities may take long to take, resistance may weaken after Ukraine breach the first few lines), but at the current rate, Ukraine will be at Melitopol for Christmas 2024.
Surely it's time for NATO to look at providing something to break the deadlock here. Trading limbs and Bradley's for mines isn't going to cut it.
To me it could suggest two things: the west don't have a top level spy in Wagner. Neither does the Russian MOD. If the west do have a top level spy in the Russian MOD,they would prefer the public perception to be they are clueless in this instance, because they will want to protect the source. Secondly to admit they knew about what was going on would be a propaganda coup for Putin. Putin is desperate to blame the west for this to get the Russian public behind him. You could well be right that there is no high ranking spy, but it would not be a shock if there was- afterall look what went on in that world during the Cold War.
Don't believe me. Try this -
He (Blinken) would deny having advance knowledge even if they had, as it implies they had a hand in it. With this in mind Putin will be keen to put it out that the West was behind it to get the Russian public behind him. As for the Battle of Kyiv,no doubt the Ukranians fought fiercely but they were aided by the west in terms of Intelligence and weaponry to achieve it. The Spetnatz had their reputation destroyed in that battle. You never hear of the SAS being decimated in a battle. I still think there was a deal with Prigozhin, why else have the charges been dropped against Prigozhin and an amnesty given to Wagner fighters who sign contracts with the Russian MOD. That sounds very much like a deal to me. I agree Putin has to renege on the deal or else others will be emboldened to try and unseat Putin.
All the riches in the world would not be worth it. I often think the same about criminals such as the Kinahans.
No thanks, give me 9-5, attainment of comfortable wealth over time and a few pints the weekend any day over that level of paranoia.
He's as much a prisoner as Navalny.
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