Russia - threadbanned users in OP

There is absolutely no way Lukashenko negotiated for Prigozhin to be allowed to move to Belarus, only to let him rebuild a private army. There won’t be a “Wagner II: Electric Belarus”

In negotiating the deal, Lukashenko finally has something he can hold over Putin to put the brakes on Russia completely consuming Belarus: He saved Putin from an increasingly embarrassing situation, and he now holds the keys for the guy who did the damage in the first place. Lukashenko would have to be a really special class of idiot to throw that win away and let Prigozhin amass an army from his own people that could put him out of power, given how tenuously he’s been hanging on for the past few years already.

You Russians have no idea of the power of the Irish people. We'd defeat you with rocks at the the end of our hurls no problem. We also have the best snipers on the planet. Just sayin

Lukashenko can't fully rely on his own forces.

If pushed too hard they might turn on him.

It probably is in his interest to have Prigozhin replace Putin, Putin is determined to restore the Soviet Socialist Union. Lukashenko not interested.

Prigozhin doesn't have much political ambition beyond power and control.

Give it a go, shur they are planning to kill us anyways is probably the guiding philosophy in the regions politics

He may be, but some think he is not at all… Very Interesting if it proves to be true but I haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere else.

Lushashenko has all but surrendered Belarus to Putin ,he's already signed into law the permanent garrisoning of Russian military forces and nuclear weapons and guess who sponsored the bills to allow this Putin himself, lushashenko is nothing more than a puppet for the Kremlin, while he plays the role of both a hard man and peacemaker he's neither, putin decides what, where and who In Belarus,

I can't see prigozhin just sitting there sipping cocktails and enjoying the minsk night life ,the question now will be will lusha have the balls to take care of prigozhin before putin tells prigozhin to take Belarus,or will he keep bowing to his Kremlin master

Not so wild at all…

The Union State was actually mostly Lukashenko’s idea at the beginning, as it was to his advantage to piggyback on Russia’s stronger economy. He negotiated the various treaties with Yeltsin, and had plans to succeed him as ruler of the combined Russia-Belarus state.

His mistake was that he didn’t count on Putin coming in the scene with his imperialist ambitions, and has been trying to fend him off while staying on his good side ever since. This indeed has resulted in him becoming a pathetic puppet of Putin. The only thing keeping him in power is the delicate balancing act he’s been performing. If he pisses of his own people too much, they’ll revolt against him. If he pisses off the Russian too much, they’ll replace him.

Having made the mistake once, he’s hardly going to foster the creation of another puppet master within his borders, especially one that’s already shown such a clear penchant for fearlessness and violent unpredictability.

Shoigu in Ukraine via Russian state TV.

Guessing this is deliberate to squash the rumour that he's getting replaced.

Has there been any update on what the Wagner forces in the field are doing? Returning to their bases, what does that mean in practical terms?

Have to imagine the rank and file would be feeling rather vulnerable right now. I haven't read anything about them transferring to Belarus with Prigoyzin, and it's hard to believe that they would be trusted if brought under MoD control.

Kremlin say criminal case into Prigozhin is still active and they are backing Shoigu........so will it be the bullet or the cage for Prigozhin ?

It's a risk he has to take. If he does not get rid of Prigozhin it will embolden others to try. I don't think Putin is going to survive the fall out from this war in the end, I think once the Russian public see the war has been lost, elites close to Putin will turn on him.

Marvellous!. Directly contradicts what was said by the Kremlin less than 48 hours ago. Just goes to show once again that they are a totally untrustworthy pack of liars.

He had such an opportunity. That he stopped on account of not receiving support sounds like a weak decision. Easy to give support to the current tyrant from the safety of your desk. They weren't hitting massive resistance. That should have been enough to embolden him and his men. I just don't see how he figured a safe way out for himself without taking Moscow. Wagner is not disbanded yet and I assume he won't disband them until he's secure. Are they holding some facilities as security? The march may have stopped but there's more to play out.

We really don't need Prigozhin to be in charge of some nukes. He's a crazy lunatic with money being the thing he's after. If he's in charge of nukes then he'll use that to his advantage somewhere in the world to pillage someone somewhere of their resources. And when he's done he'd happily sell it on to some other crazy loon somewhere in the world.