Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I strongly believe that Russia will never deploy nuclear weapons as part of an offensive war. The only instance where it's really worthwhile to use them is if the integral territory of Russia is attacked in a grand strategic way and there is the real possibility of Russia succumbing as a sovereign state to a foreign invader. No other scenario makes their use worthwhile, not while there is at least one other power in the world with lots of nuclear weapons also.

I think it was Prof. Michael Clarke who outlined what America's response to a nuclear attack from Russia on Ukraine, which wasn't so much that America would hit Russia as America would hit Putin. As I've mentioned before, Putin is so scared of being killed, that he's not going to raise the likelihood to the level of a bunker bomb hitting the Kremlin to that level. Not if he can help it, anyway.

Russia will use nuclear weapons for threats and leverage, as we're seeing, but that's it. Forward deploying nukes in Belarus shows us that he wouldn't dare do the unthinkable, considering that the missiles bearing nuclear warheads can fly between continents. It is one hundred percent a peace of theatre.

Another attack?

It may be a good characterisation of whatever passes for the Russian urban middle class, i.e. the kind you're likely to meet on holiday in Thailand talking down to the wait staff. I don't know if it's typical of the peasants of the provinces, however. I've seen plenty of those old Bald and Bankrupt videos where he goes around those kinds of places and they seem friendly enough, and quite giving of what little they may have. In fairness, I don't expect that woman to say any different - if she says she doesn't want the car, she could get a window in exchange.

@briany " In fairness, I don't expect that woman to say any different - if she says she doesn't want the car, she could get a window in exchange."

Looks like a propaganda video to me.

On a lighter note and another example of Russia being behind the times, that pouf hairstyle which saw its peak here in the mid to late 2000s, appears to be alive and well in Russia.

Geo-location of Ukrainian forces in Novodarivka.

Western support for Ukraine did exist prior to 2022 in the form of things like Operation Orbital from the British, the purpose of which being to fend off the kind of incursion Russia had been practicing since 2014. It stepped up quite exponentially in the wake of the 2022 invasion, however, but it was this prior training and support which allowed Ukraine to stand an initial chance. Russia cite this buildup as one of the reasons for its invasion, despite the fact that they had already been invading which necessitated the military buildup.

Don't demonise Russian people.

That's how war crimes happen.

You seem to think Ukraine is going to steamroll to total victory once this counteroffensive gets going. I hope they do, but I think you're wrong. Which is why I don't see much point in making big claims before it even starts.

Time will tell

More Ukrainian probing, the density of which does seem to have stepped up in the last two days.

https://t.me/ASupersharij/20109

This according to Prigozhin, I am guessing that he is telling the truth in this instance.

Hmm hopefully not true, would be worrying if the weakest part of Russias defence was able to defend so easy.

Yes, I thought that 15 years ago.

Things definitely seem to be heating up in the past 24 hours. The fact that the Ukrainians are releasing videos saying that they won't be saying anything at all is a pretty good indicator. That's exactly what happened prior to the Kherson offensive last year. I remember during that offensive the Ukrainians stayed quiet and the movement of the lines had to be inferred based purely on Russian reporting. With the Russians claiming they thwarted an attack in Donetsk, which the Ukrainians aren't commenting specifically on, that phase may have already begun.