Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

aloyisious · 22-05-2023 10:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623793#Comment_120623793

Tim Scott has declared his candidacy for the presidency, opening the door to negotiations and the chance that the Republicans will provide some-one to take up the torch brought by Obama and the Democrats to US politics.

pixelburp · 23-05-2023 07:41AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120629344#Comment_120629344

The question will be if all those performative evangelicals who like to talk about Trump as this "imperfect vessel" will jump ship for an actual, open Christian candidate. I mean, it won't - but it'll be interesting all the same to see if there's any division caused by this. Quite taken aback just how much Scott uses religion in his behaviour - though you'd imagine that brazen "godliness" would turn off voters not into that kind of thing.

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Quin_Dub · 23-05-2023 10:01AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120629898#Comment_120629898

If it were a thing in US Politics , Tim Scott will lose his deposit in this. If he breaks 2 or 3% I'd be shocked.

The level of Influence that Religion has in US politics in general is quite disturbing.

If politicians here (or most other countries tbh) talked about religion and how it influences their decision making the way they do in the US , they'd be run out on a rail.

Rjd2 · 23-05-2023 02:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120629898#Comment_120629898

Its a complicated relationship the evangelicals have with Trump. People who did not know better always use to ask "why do they love a man who cheats on women and clearly loathes those with sincere beliefs" it was simple , they got judges from him who were ultimately able to roll back Roe v Wade which is something many other Republicans promised but had no interest in doing.

Its going to be interesting this time round where they go, Trump is all over the place with abortion, briefing to journos that six week abortion bans are to harsh but also taking credit for the roll back last year.

Then obviously Pence will enter soon and RDS has made a serious play for the social cons over the last few years with most notably signing a 6 week abortion ban.

Rjd2 · 23-05-2023 02:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120630300#Comment_120630300

He wont win obviously but he ay do best of the also rans, has plenty of money and the senate republicans like him a lot . Heck he is best mates with Sinema from the Dems.

pixelburp · 23-05-2023 02:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120630300#Comment_120630300

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120631450#Comment_120631450

One wrinkle that might set him apart: Scott appears to have quite the war-chest from his time running for senate. $22 million reads pretty well for a potential also-ran...? If he can gain any traction he might surprise.

Scott enters the race with a significant fundraising advantage over many of his primary opponents. After Scott won re-election to the Senate in November, his campaign committee still had $22m in cash on hand that can now be used to bolster his presidential candidacy. According to the FEC, Scott’s existing funds represent the largest sum of money that any US presidential candidate has ever had when launching a campaign.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/may/22/south-carolina-senator-tim-scott-2024-presidential-campaign

Rjd2 · 23-05-2023 05:22PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120631481#Comment_120631481

The war chest will be huge and he should get plenty of senators to stump for him, but he needs at least one of RDS or Trump or obviously both to implode to have a path. Highly unlikely.

aloyisious · 24-05-2023 08:49AM

I assume many of the probable candidates are versions of the floating voter - the floating candidate - and will in reality be totally uncommitted to anything which might deny him/her votes when challenged on a/any position by an opponent, reporter or a voter.

In relation to the temper of one of the presumed candidates, tomorrow might be explosive. According to MSN, RDS's political team have confirmed that he will be holding a discussion on twitter with Elon Musk during which he will announce he is seeking the Republican presidential nomination and that he will file a document with the FEC declaring his candidacy.

The question is: would Don walk off twitter or show upset causing a withdrawal of right to use the twitter platform kind of automatically arises when it comes to gaining/having an advantage in the political theatre. Is Elon Musk much of a Don Trump fan nowadays?

pixelburp · 24-05-2023 09:12AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120634040#Comment_120634040

I saw that discussion and have thought that whatever Musk might claim, deciding to chat with a politician not just showing performative hostility towards PoC & LGBT+ perspectives, but actively legislating against them, he's clearly happier to mix with the right-leaning spectrum of American society. Or indeed, the CoVid "sceptics" given DeSantis wasn't exactly all-in on the baseline protections asked of people during the pandemic (but IIRC Musk himself has "just asked questions" on CoVid so no surprises there). It's another topic altogether, but I think Musk's only going to further erode goodwill and belief he's as neutral a "free speech" advocate as he likes to claim. DeSantis, a man who had asylum seekers "kidnapped" and flown to Martha's Vineyard for the lols, isn't the kind of person you pick to play the Both Sides angle, being more than a petty bully - but one who'll act on that pettiness.

As to the end-result of the meeting, I don't think much will change. Trump has been throwing the mud & insults at DeSantis since the first mutterings the latter might run for President (the latest nickname being "DeSanctimonious"... yeah, it's not good even by Trump's low standards). This is why I suddenly saw Scott and went "... huh, maybe?". If the GOP are serious about taking the White House back there's an argument IMO that two sides of the same belligerent coin aren't going to persuade the floating voters. It's not like Scott doesn't share certain extreme views on topics like Abortion; his overt Christianity might be a hard pill to swallow for many. Yet the manner DeSantis so bullishly, gleefully talks of a hyper-conservative and punitive vision of American, as opposed to the lip-service Christian compassion of Scott, might torpedo DeSantis' chances very quickly.

Quin_Dub · 24-05-2023 09:48AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120634113#Comment_120634113

The eternal problem for a candidate that might be attractive to the "floating voter" in a National election is how to get past the Primary.

In the primary, except for a few "open vote" States there are no floating voters , they are all GOP voters and the MAGA fringe make up probably 30-40% of the GOP Primary voting base.

So if they try to appear "normal" they won't get through the primary , but if they pander to the MAGA's as they will have to , then the normal voter won't believe them if they then try to pivot for the actual Presidential race.

The GOP have painted themselves into a corner that they can't get out of.

aloyisious · 24-05-2023 11:01AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120634113#Comment_120634113

If DeSantis and Trump spend their time trying to outshout each other for the others voters, then it may backfire on both if the average GOP voter decides NOT to waste the ballot on either and give it instead to a middle-grounder and the electorate college then decides to make the best of the standard vote result and go for the middle-grounder, there may be a very slim chance that both Trump and DeSantis campaigns will flounder and die off.

Ref both campaigns where it comes to showmanship; Trump being televisual and DeSantis being populist [or the other way round] which is likely to be more successful to garnering ownership of the electoral college vote over a middle-ground candidate? I am assuming the campaigns interest in controlling the EC result and the make-up of the committees at state level is still as strong as ever, what with the Georgia state issue still unresolved at court level.

Will Musk's control of twitter and its online platform access to all kinds of media screens come under FCC monitoring when the election-proper kicks into action? Is there an FCC embargo put in place on the media [except for the usual news reportage] to prevent the campaigns from using the media as platforms to swing the election from: say 48 hours prior to start of voting until end of voting?

Has Musk, by taking ownership of the platform, chosen to grip a tiger by the tail which might yet take him to pieces?

Nody · 24-05-2023 11:31AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120634256#Comment_120634256

There's no reason to vote a for a MAGA candidate if the MAGA President (Trump) is running; this is the part that appears to be completly lost on some candidates. Why vote for the light version when you can get the full blown deal (beyond the fact the base also believes the vote was stolen etc. so naturally it should be Trump to "get back att those stealing his actual election"). This is the part, and I admitt not being close to the average American voter in mindset, I'd like to see a Republican having the cohones to actually go for an actual republican platform with actual ideas rather than a "bash the woke left". Yes; you can have some MAGA In there for the base but have an actual base beyond it to stand on and promote as the reason to vote for them instead of "I'm as outraged as Trump about the stolen election so vote for me".

aloyisious · 25-05-2023 05:25PM

Today's Indo has an article on RDS run for the presidency and how he has a different more resident-friendly attitude to established home-owning law abiding Florida residents, distinct from the one he has for those from out of the states and temporarily resident in Florida, with his wife being a strong supporting partner. The moving of a group of those temporary residents by him from Florida to Massachusetts got a mention in the article. His attitude to voters is apparently more caring then that of Trump, with a religious aspect that Trumps past lifestyle does not seem to have and marks the difference between those two GOP candidates. As to whether that will be a line in the sand and be to Trumps loss will only be seen if and when the religious influencers in the US take up support roles for one or the other.

aloyisious · 26-05-2023 11:25PM

This, on the face of it, is not directly related to the latest Trump campaign to sit as a republican in the Oval Office but might be a sign of the wind changing in Republican Party circles at State level. Ken Paxton, Texas State AG, is facing an impeachment trial in Texas recommended by a Republican-led House committee investigating him on charges of bribery, unfitness for office and abuse of public trust. Paxton called for his supporters to come aand protest at the capitol building [in Texas]. Paxton has called the republicans bringing the charges RINO's. He was also a supporter of Trump, calling the Biden election result fake.

Anyone know if the answer to my question is: yes, there is a wind of change coming in the Republican Party against bluffers and maligned persons in republican positions of power.

Quin_Dub · 29-05-2023 09:04AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120645666#Comment_120645666

Sadly, not really.

The Texas GOP are ditching Paxton because he has become a liability to them, not because they are concerned about the optics of having a venal, corrupt, election denying racist and mysoginist as AG.

They couldn't care less, unless and until it damages them and their election chances.

Remember that everything they are impeaching him for occurred before he stood for re-election.

Impeaching him now is convenient, not conscientious.

Brussels Sprout · 29-05-2023 02:36PM

I lasted 24 seconds before I had to turn this off through sheer second hand cringe

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1662966473550176256

pixelburp · 29-05-2023 02:42PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120654130#Comment_120654130

To paraphrase Eamon Dunphy after watching a particularly sycophantic post-match interview - the subjects of which I can't recall - that's the first time I've seen two men engage in oral sex on live(?) TV. "Fawning" doesn't come close to describe that kind of obsequiousness and in many respects, cuts to the quick when it comes to the issue of Donald Trump & the Cult of Personality that is now rooted into right-leaning & conservative politics in the US.

Brussels Sprout · 29-05-2023 02:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120654167#Comment_120654167

This was the top comment

aloyisious · 29-05-2023 04:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120652672#Comment_120652672

Thanks for that info. It made me check the internet to see when charges were laid against him. It seems the investigation began 7 years ago and the DOJ has taken the case away from the US attorneys office in Texas from Feb 17 last, approx 3 months ago, recusing Federal Prosecutors from Texas who had long handled the federal case according to FoxNews back then. I love the words "who had long handled the case" [as they are from Fox News] as if they were code for a particular way of handling a criminal investigation into the activities of that states chief law enforcement officer.

aloyisious · 29-05-2023 05:05PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120654130#Comment_120654130

The Monty Python Spanish Inquisition "comfy chair" interrogation sketch comes to mind.

pixelburp · 31-05-2023 10:49PM

So I'm reading reports Mike Pence is gonna throw his hat into the ring; well that's a surprise. Not sure why or how he thinks he offers anything, being the "straight man" to Trump's chaotic reign. And presumably he won't get the MAGA vote, what with their cheerful chants for his hanging during the Jan 6th insurrection.

VinLieger · 31-05-2023 11:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120664288#Comment_120664288

It'sr really starting to feel like the top of the party are more and more certain Trump won't be in a place to legally be a candidate when the election comes around

Nody · 01-06-2023 07:24AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120664373#Comment_120664373

I think that's an optimistic view of the world if I'm honest; I think it's more a case of throwing up an more reasonable candidate and hope against all facts that the candidate will prevail.

pixelburp · 01-06-2023 11:52AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120664373#Comment_120664373

Naw, I wouldn't be sure. Trump's poll ratings show a 30 point lead over DeSantis and the GOP aren't that sober to ignore those fanatical figures. The cult of personality remains strong and unbending.

Remember Trump's snark that he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and his numbers would go up? I think that's still 100% true: the only acts that might arrest the devotion might be ... I dunno, paedophilia (and not the marginal, teenage or marry-your-cousin version the GOP has pretended not to notice), or one of Trump's affairs had an abortion. Beyond that? The "imperfect vessel" moniker remains.

Sam Russell · 01-06-2023 12:14PM

I think a jail sentence might dampen his electability.

If it is long enough, it might actually prevent it.

pixelburp · 01-06-2023 12:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120665716#Comment_120665716

I'm very much on the fence as to whether Trump getting a jail sentence would be a good or bad thing, in the long run: even if suspended, commuted or whatnot, if he's jailed you basically create a behemoth-size Martyr that simply won't go away, and might actively create another Insurrectionist movement. Better to hammer him with civil suits & dry his bank account so he can sink into penury.

ancapailldorcha · 01-06-2023 12:29PM

I'd say he'd disappear fairly quickly if he can't produce his regular dumps on Twitter and Truth Social in prison. He'll always remain the martyr for a sizeable portion of the American right but the rest of them will move on towards some sort of continuity candidate who is hopefully a little bit grounded.

pixelburp · 01-06-2023 12:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120665777#Comment_120665777

Undoubtedly; the problems lies with the fact that those who might consider him a martyr, even heading into a jail term, would be heavily armed and emotionally invested enough in the Deep State Conspiracy to retry what was attempted on Jan 6th (though if they weren't on a Watchlist before that date, I'd imagine they sure are now!). Another weekend warrior coup could be tragic.

It's not that I wouldn't delight in seeing Trump thrown in Jail - even if it was inevitably Rich Person's Jail - I just also speculate there are genuine political calculations going on here. Trump himself likes to talk about how his legal peril is politically fuelled: I suspect he's right, but not in the manner he speaks of. That instead the political interference is to ensure his troubles are mitigated or stalled, not accelerated. Obviously I have no proof of this.

ancapailldorcha · 01-06-2023 01:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120665821#Comment_120665821

I feel like they've already pushed the martyr narrative to its limit though. There's not much more than can really be done to rev up the MAGA base. If anything, I'd be surprised if it weren't beginning to decline at this point. Trump simply won't be able to win in 2024 and I think they all know it. I take your point but if the US can't imprison an ex-president for what Trump has done then effectively the holder of the office is above the law.

aloyisious · 01-06-2023 11:09PM

Trump may be getting desperate about his future and his popular vote turnout. He's rerunning a promise from his successful 2016 campaign, that he will end the citizenship birthright of people born in the US if their parents are illegal aliens in the US by executive order if he's re-elected. He claims he will expel the parents of the US born birth-righted. Presumably he thinks the parents will take the birth-righted children away with them when he expels them.

As history relates, he had the opportunity to do that when elected back in 2016 and fulfil his campaign promise but did not do so. The snag for him is an amendment to the constitution creating the birthright in the 1880's stands in his path and an executive order cant be used to overturn the amendment. He won't tell his voters that, though he probably wish-thinks if he to make loud noises about the "issue" some-one in certain high legal circles might give him a little assist in helping him win enough votes to get back into office.

Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

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