Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120664288#Comment_120664288

It'sr really starting to feel like the top of the party are more and more certain Trump won't be in a place to legally be a candidate when the election comes around

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120664373#Comment_120664373

I think that's an optimistic view of the world if I'm honest; I think it's more a case of throwing up an more reasonable candidate and hope against all facts that the candidate will prevail.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120664373#Comment_120664373

Naw, I wouldn't be sure. Trump's poll ratings show a 30 point lead over DeSantis and the GOP aren't that sober to ignore those fanatical figures. The cult of personality remains strong and unbending.

Remember Trump's snark that he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and his numbers would go up? I think that's still 100% true: the only acts that might arrest the devotion might be ... I dunno, paedophilia (and not the marginal, teenage or marry-your-cousin version the GOP has pretended not to notice), or one of Trump's affairs had an abortion. Beyond that? The "imperfect vessel" moniker remains.

Sam Russell

I think a jail sentence might dampen his electability.

If it is long enough, it might actually prevent it.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120665716#Comment_120665716

I'm very much on the fence as to whether Trump getting a jail sentence would be a good or bad thing, in the long run: even if suspended, commuted or whatnot, if he's jailed you basically create a behemoth-size Martyr that simply won't go away, and might actively create another Insurrectionist movement. Better to hammer him with civil suits & dry his bank account so he can sink into penury.

ancapailldorcha

I'd say he'd disappear fairly quickly if he can't produce his regular dumps on Twitter and Truth Social in prison. He'll always remain the martyr for a sizeable portion of the American right but the rest of them will move on towards some sort of continuity candidate who is hopefully a little bit grounded.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120665777#Comment_120665777

Undoubtedly; the problems lies with the fact that those who might consider him a martyr, even heading into a jail term, would be heavily armed and emotionally invested enough in the Deep State Conspiracy to retry what was attempted on Jan 6th (though if they weren't on a Watchlist before that date, I'd imagine they sure are now!). Another weekend warrior coup could be tragic.

It's not that I wouldn't delight in seeing Trump thrown in Jail - even if it was inevitably Rich Person's Jail - I just also speculate there are genuine political calculations going on here. Trump himself likes to talk about how his legal peril is politically fuelled: I suspect he's right, but not in the manner he speaks of. That instead the political interference is to ensure his troubles are mitigated or stalled, not accelerated. Obviously I have no proof of this.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120665821#Comment_120665821

I feel like they've already pushed the martyr narrative to its limit though. There's not much more than can really be done to rev up the MAGA base. If anything, I'd be surprised if it weren't beginning to decline at this point. Trump simply won't be able to win in 2024 and I think they all know it. I take your point but if the US can't imprison an ex-president for what Trump has done then effectively the holder of the office is above the law.

aloyisious

Trump may be getting desperate about his future and his popular vote turnout. He's rerunning a promise from his successful 2016 campaign, that he will end the citizenship birthright of people born in the US if their parents are illegal aliens in the US by executive order if he's re-elected. He claims he will expel the parents of the US born birth-righted. Presumably he thinks the parents will take the birth-righted children away with them when he expels them.

As history relates, he had the opportunity to do that when elected back in 2016 and fulfil his campaign promise but did not do so. The snag for him is an amendment to the constitution creating the birthright in the 1880's stands in his path and an executive order cant be used to overturn the amendment. He won't tell his voters that, though he probably wish-thinks if he to make loud noises about the "issue" some-one in certain high legal circles might give him a little assist in helping him win enough votes to get back into office.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120664288#Comment_120664288

Iowa first in the GOP primary which has a solid base of evangelicals who is a base he has worked a long time to please. Cruz won it in 2016.

I suppose the logic is DeSantis is a soft 2nd fav and if he can win a state he should do well in then is somewhat in the game.

Its a longshot as while Trump is weakish in that state he could win it due to a crowded field.

aloyisious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120668580#Comment_120668580

Can Pence turn the evangelical pastors and their congregations into a voting critical mass across several states early on in GOP party politics to ensure it [the GOP] understands that he can carry a large swing vote that Trump cannot hope to get on his side this time around? From what I understand, the evangelicals have an ability and wealth to fund people and ventures they like and as long as donating to Pence stays within the laws governing funding candidates and campaigns, he might be able to tap into it in a way Trump cant. How do DeSantis and Johnson stand in this regard?

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120678101#Comment_120678101

The short answer is no.

The MAGA faithful see him as a traitor and everyone else sees him as Trumps lackey with the personality of the weird uncle that no ones invites to family gatherings.

He's irrelevant.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120678101#Comment_120678101

I can't imagine that there's much untapped voting potential in the evangelical Christian pool to be honest. Same for their money.

As Quin_Dub says, Pence is either a traitor or a lackey. He's not got any real advantage over Trump or DeSantis.

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120678593#Comment_120678593

I’m actually shocked he’s running. It’s pointless. The only time he had a spine, on the 6th of January ‘21, cost him his political career. The only time he ever did anything worth respecting, lost him any chance of becoming POTUS. Mad carry on.

pixelburp

What even is the estimate of floating voters these days anyway? America is disproportionately skewed by its media being so partisan, so dictated by factions and culture wars I realise I have no context or perspective on (say) those unmoved by pronouns or whatnot.

There's no question: Trump attracted folks jaded by the establishment that presumed Clinton was heir apparent ("it's her turn" was a nauseating mantra at the time). Hubris always killed the Democrats' chances while Trump represented an alluring, pseudo-anarchic candidate. It was, in many respects, the ultimate protest vote. But what odds are those floating voters giving Trump another shot? If Biden wasn't so ... so-so there'd surely not even be a contest.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120665821#Comment_120665821

Coup me once, shame on you. Coup me twice, shame on me.

Wannabe insurrectionists would be unable to stage anything like they did on January 6th to any greater degree of success, where you have a president who's actually interested in stopping them and would direct forces accordingly.

It is quite possible, however, that wannabe insurrectionists know this and would instead resort to tactics which would seek to render red states ungovernable from Washington, via the targeting of state officials, takeover of police stations, local legislatures and the like, and fight on a more defensive footing if and when Federal task forces come in to restore law and order.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120679377#Comment_120679377

Biden is probably better than a Democrat alternative if we're honest; no real strong candidates sticking out for a center choice that I can think of and Trump could shudder run on the "I've done this before" ticket as well. Biden is not an exciting candidate for sure; but I don't think they NEED an exciting candidate against Trump which is part of Biden's benefit. He's a known quantity; he's not going to start a war or tank the economy or do any drastic changes; in essence it's someone who's not going to pull out a small R voter to protest vote. If it somehow become someone else than Trump then we'd talk a different ball park but the other top candidates today are variations of Trump without his base and I think Biden would beat that as well (because parts of Trump base would simply refuse to vote for any other candidate short of Trump becoming ineligible as that could trigger a protest vote).

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120678101#Comment_120678101

Unlikely even if he were to win Iowa. RDS signed in the six week abortion ban to placate them and is running on social conservative issues. Trump has the most surreal relationship with them, he has put it out their that the GOP focus on harsh abortion bans is toxic politically which is correct but has also take credit for the Roe v Wade ban.

Its a transactional relationship, yes they knew from day one he loathed them, but they got judges and ultimately without Trump Roe v Wade would not have been overturned.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120679416#Comment_120679416

The Dems have a pretty weak bench when it comes to 2024. Biden's approval numbers are abysmal but Trump fatigue is real so assuming its that rematch Biden should win.

Polling can be hit and miss, so we only have the midterms to really go off and ultimately the Trump candidates lost nearly all their swing states.

Its feasible Trump could win, but I don't know what swing states he wins in 2024 that he didn't in 2020 with his current approach.

Looking at how he is running, its a mess, yes he is talking about the economy and immigration which is important, but he is still crying about 2020 and bar deadenders who cares about that? His previous message of "they are trying to screw you only I can stop them " reasonated,,,the current "they are out to get me MAGA" not so much.

Leroy42

One area that Trump has lost that nobody seems to talk about is Ivanka.

While she wasn't hugely involved in 2019 she was still part of the overall and certainly in 2015 played a massive role in securing the more moderate and female voters.

She has completely removed herself from Trump politically and it is amazing that no journalist (certainly CNN townhall should have brought it up) has asked Trump about it.

But regardless of why, it is a loss to his campaign and his appeal.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120679642#Comment_120679642

This is true about her public presence. There was a hot minute when the chatter - as is the want of American politics - tried to fashion some dynastic potential with Ivanka being nepo'ed into the top tiers off the back of Daddy El Presidente. US Politics loves anything tangential to a royal family (see the Clinton's, Kennedy's etc) and the Ivanka talk lasted quite a while before, if nothing else, her husband's utter lack of charisma and nous sunk those intiial murmerings of the next great white hope.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120679416#Comment_120679416

The fact that Biden doesn't generate hatred is a key factor for his electability.

Despite huge ongoing efforts by the GOP , Biden just isn't "hated" in the way that Hilary Clinton was/is or indeed the way Trump himself is.

People may not like his policies etc. but few beyond the MAGA fringes actively hate him.

And as you say , because of that Biden isn't going to make a significant group of people say "I'm going to make 100% certain that I vote to get rid of that guy , I despise him!"

Trump however, absolutely will engender that response from any Democrat leaning registered voters and a few moderate Republicans as well.

Ron DeSantis is doing great work in building that level of reflexive response as well from Moderate voters as well should he get to be the candidate.

Sam Russell

It is a bit worrying that Biden has fallen/tripped over a few times recently in the full view of the TV cameras.

Sort of adds to the view that he is too old to be POTUS.

But Rupert Murdoch, at 92, is still very much in control of his media empire at the moment, and was still seeking another marriage partner - or at least he announced an engagement and then announced it was off. So he thinks he still has it.

Biden at least managed to get the USA debt ceiling raised - which was a significant achievement.

aloyisious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120681181#Comment_120681181

Does Joe still have friends at the GOP Senator and House levels which he can use to his advantage in the upcoming election [should he not suffer some event putting him out of the running] where political revenge can be taken on Trump by them choosing the better candidate for the job? How many enemies does Trump have in the GOP set who might silently choose another GOP candidate in the sure and certain knowledge they won't be caught in the act?

aloyisious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120679405#Comment_120679405

Going after another state governor with the intent of kidnap could rebound on any idiot if State forces, and not federal, were used/seen as being the rescuer of the official. Ditto for the seizure of state property and police stations, with the ensuing increase in loss of regard for idiotic actions and the criminalizing of perpetrators by locals. Supporting your local official might come back in vogue.

amandstu

Seems the so called ex President has been indicted on at least 7 charges related to the classified documents issue(which he calls the "Boxes Hoax")

See you in court hopefully a-hole.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65852062

BorneTobyWilde

Does this mean Biden will be charged too, or is it one rule for Trump, and a different one for Biden.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120693043#Comment_120693043

Tldr

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120693043#Comment_120693043

Biden is still under investigation and will be charged if any wrong doing is found.

You really could work harder when preparing your “what about” arguments. A little leg work might save you some embarrassment.

Brian?

This looks very bad for Trump. Pence has been investigated and won’t be charged and Biden still under investigation.

I can’t believe McCarthy is working the “political witch hunt” angle.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/08/donald-trump-charged-retention-classified-documents?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other