Russia - threadbanned users in OP

zv2 · 30-05-2023 12:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120657389#Comment_120657389

I don't know much about him.

Virgil° · 30-05-2023 12:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120657381#Comment_120657381

I don't. Always quick to ask for sources never quick to supply them. Or when they do, the sources at best don't really backup what they claim or at worst outright contradict it. I've had him on ignore for a while and I remember why now.

Baba Yaga · 30-05-2023 12:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120657341#Comment_120657341

its the impossible task ive been given 😁 on that what better way to enter a city?or a heavily guarded compound?most cities have a network of tunnels...some are open to rivers/the sea...

WheelieKing · 30-05-2023 12:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120657376#Comment_120657376

I disagree. The majority of stuff on Twitter is pure rubbish. We live in a world where people want to be seen to be in the know and yeah occasionally they are but more often than not they aren't.

Seanmadradubh · 30-05-2023 01:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120657362#Comment_120657362

That's what you get for taking a headline as the story when the headline says the opposite of what the article says.

In the intellegence world "low confidence" means it didn't happen. (Or more accuratly, they just don't know)

timmyntc · 30-05-2023 01:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120657362#Comment_120657362

Any proof it was a false flag? No didnt think so.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-was-probably-behind-kremlin-drone-attack-nyt-quotes-us-officials-2023-05-25/

heres another from Reuters indicating the same thing: US believes Ukraine was behind it.

They have "low confidence" that a Ukrainian group was behind the incident - compared to what, ultra low confidence it was a false flag? The very fact that intelligence officials are stating that Ukraine may be behind it based on intercepted comms and not instead running with the Russian false flag angle speaks volumes.

Dohnjoe · 30-05-2023 01:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120657541#Comment_120657541

Not ruling anything out, but I would believe the Ukrainians are (of course) behind it.

Very smart move.

It's a "soft" escalation. Just something relatively small, not big enough to trigger a ridiculous response
As always, the Ukrainians have taken the very smart line of never confirming their missions, this creates ambiguity and always leaves the possibility for conspiracies to fill the void (Russian false flags, etc)
It puts Russian authorities under pressure to move resources to cover Russian cities.
Highlights Russian vulnerabilities.
Brings Ukraine another step closer to possibly systematically striking at logistical and military hubs operating within Russia itself.

Of course Putin will milk this for propaganda, but indeed it does make the country look a hell of a lot more vulnerable.

Dohnjoe · 30-05-2023 01:28PM

ATACMS to Ukraine apparently being discussed by the US. Range 300km and easier to launch (uses HIMARS).

Seanmadradubh · 30-05-2023 01:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120657541#Comment_120657541

Low confidence: Low confidence generally means questionable or implausible information was used, the information is too fragmented or poorly corroborated to make solid analytic inferences, or significant concerns or problems with sources existed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analytic_confidence

fly_agaric · 30-05-2023 01:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120657582#Comment_120657582

I wonder has tendency of US and other Western countries backing them to be queasy about that kind of action inside Russia been diminished somewhat by the behaviour of Russia/Putin over past +1 year of constant escalation?

Also, If Ukraine is doing this stuff I (edit: would not be) surprised - it would always get more likely to happen as war goes on, if they can develop these capabilites themselves. It must be in military/civilian leader's minds what Russia has been inflicting on them, and that will affect decisions. I wonder what would Kyiv (or some of the other big cities) be like right now if 50 % of all this shít the Russians have been flinging at them for months was finding the target instead of so much being shot down?

Sigma101 · 30-05-2023 01:42PM

I think reports about what US intelligence believes have, by definition, no value whatsoever. It's the nature of intelligence services that there's no way of knowing if what they believe is what they say they believe.

jmreire · 30-05-2023 02:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120656515#Comment_120656515

you can say with justification that it will make the Russians more skittish too.....one thing people getting bombed and killed in another Country, but its a different kettle of fish wen it stars to happen at home. Sure, Putin will milk it propaganda wise for all its worth, but also, it will cause a lot if unease amongst rank and file Russians. All is definitely not well in the Russian paradise.

Gatling · 30-05-2023 02:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120657582#Comment_120657582

For weeks various drones were filmed over Moscow and not the dji quad or multirotors either,

Would put it past the Russians, to go the false flag route ,if it's not a false flag it's a likely internal issue

pcardin · 30-05-2023 02:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120657827#Comment_120657827

This is ruSSian paradise

jmreire · 30-05-2023 02:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120656783#Comment_120656783

Do you mean Baba Vanga, the blind seer?

Virgil° · 30-05-2023 02:22PM

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-attack-moscow-kyiv/ukraine-denies-involvement-in-moscow-strike-predicts-more-attacks-idUKL8N37R1NP?utm_source=reddit.com

Paraphrase: "We didn't do it but i bet it'll happen again soon". 😘

Honestly I do think its possible the attack is Ukranian in origin. However I'd be reasonably confident that any civilian casualties would be as a result of their drones either being shot down/ GPS jammed/ or flight error. But this is war and if Moscow was worried about Muscovite civilian deaths they could stop all this nonsense by lunchtime today. Of course they won't.

It does however force Moscow to continuously redeploy their AA systems away from the frontlines. So even if all the drones are intercepted it should be a net win for Ukraine.

paul71 · 30-05-2023 02:28PM

I always wondered if Baba Yaga was sung about in Weile Weile Waile.

pcardin · 30-05-2023 02:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120657958#Comment_120657958

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baba_Yaga

no, baba Yaga

30-05-2023 03:13PM

Most likely the drone attack on Moscow was carried out by Ukraine, using a domestically produced drone made in an artisan workshop. This is the simplest explanation.

People have been envoking/predicting "false flags" constantly during this conflict. Have any come to pass?

If this is the case (that it was Ukraine) then it will be used again. It's unlikely that they would manufacture eight drones and then simply abandon the design. Ukraine's Western allies do not want Western weapons used to attack Russia but they have no problem with Ukrainian weapons doing so.

They most likely had military targets which they simply failed to reach. Ukraine are not stupid enough to believe that crashing drones into apartment blocks will achieve anything.

Retr0gamer · 30-05-2023 03:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120658286#Comment_120658286

Ask yourself what Ukraine would gain by attacking civilian apartments. Also ask yourself why they were hit with such small payloads. This isn't a drone type Ukraine has used before, seemed pretty simplistic to me with very slow speed and low flight path. Looks way less effective than the Shaheds.

Anyway this attack completely goes against the way ukraine has attacked. Russia have no qualms about terror attacks against civilians while Ukraine has been attack military facilities strategically. We have also seen false flag events in the zaporizhzhia power plant and in Donetsk City. We are also talking about Putin who has a history of false flags.

Would not be surprised if this is a pretext to a mass mobilisation effort by russia.

30-05-2023 03:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120658322#Comment_120658322

Ask yourself what Ukraine would gain by attacking civilian apartments.

Answered already.

This isn't a drone type Ukraine has used before, seemed pretty simplistic to me with very slow speed and low flight path. Looks way less effective than the Shaheds.

Answered already. This was likely a newly-designed drone, artisan-produced. Something similar to a hobby r/c plane. Most of the quadcopters used daily in Ukraine were made by lads with 3D printers, lads who in peacetime would be making r/c planes, racing drones etc. These drones will be similarly low-tech, albeit fixed wing and with a 2-stroke r/c engine. Ukraine have an official program for this, they give funding to maker-types who have ideas for low-cost weapons.

False flag attacks are used to whip up public support for military action, or as a pretext for an attack. Last I checked Russia already invaded Ukraine, already mobilized hundreds of thousands. They have no need for false flag attacks.

Sleepy · 30-05-2023 04:04PM

Russia still hasn't actually declared war or moved to a full mobilisation of the country. I don't think either would make a huge difference on the battlefield tbh but using a false flag as a pretext to do so could help Putin cling to power a little longer.

The war is already lost, Russia's going to be an economic and cultural wasteland and pariah state for decades and it was alredy in terminal population decline before the "special operation" began. Ekeing out a few more years of his life in his golden cage (bunker) is about as much as Putin can hope for at this stage.

Desperate men don't act rationally.

Sigma101 · 30-05-2023 04:22PM

I'm inclined to agree that these attacks in Moscow can be attributed to Ukraine although we'll probably never know for sure. Spreading chaos and uncertainty among the public by staging audacious attacks would be consistent with the modus operandi of Kyrylo Budanov and the Ukrainian intelligence services.

It's not clear what the target was, if there was any. As I Kill You Scum! said, it could have been military. It could also have been infrastructure or even the home of an individual recognised as an enemy of Ukraine. The drones were almost certainly not deliberately targeting random civilians. Regardless, hitting any target would have had no additional strategic value. The strategic goal was already achieved by their launch. The DIY nature of the drones would also be consistent with the reluctance of Ukraine to use NATO equipment on Russian soil.

I expect episodes like these to become more frequent.

IdHidden · 30-05-2023 04:34PM

https://twitter.com/timothydsnyder/status/1663538426128343044?s=46&t=164doiZBMwnNrFfsvLsvPA

Good thread on Russian war crimes.

Brussels Sprout · 30-05-2023 04:39PM

The weather is refusing to play ball

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1663534252565098498

Should be over soon though

IdHidden · 30-05-2023 04:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120658613#Comment_120658613

Redeployment of Russian AA assets before the counter offensive.
Shows the Czar isn’t in control and creates a sense of chaos.
Creates a political problem for the Russian leadership.
Makes Russia look weak in the eyes of the world.

Summer is coming Vatniks :)

RoyalCelt · 30-05-2023 05:21PM

That rain will take a week or so to dry up so even more delays. The later they start the more western equipment will be ready so it's not exactly a bad thing.

pcardin · 30-05-2023 05:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120658613#Comment_120658613

It was Prigozhin responsible for this attack. Elections are coming.

IdHidden · 30-05-2023 05:32PM

First they said he was dead now he is on a wanted list. What a joke Russian propaganda is, stupid Vatniks.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1663542777530167296?s=20

Dohnjoe · 30-05-2023 05:45PM

https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/7/7/542751.pdf

OCSE report

The Mission established that a large number of Ukrainian children have been, since 24 February 2022 and even prior to this date, displaced from the territory of Ukraine to the temporarily occupied territories and to the territory of the Russian Federation. While the exact numbers remain uncertain, the fact of a large-scale displacement of Ukrainian children is not disputed by either Ukraine and/or Russia. In this report, primary focus has been placed on orphans and on unaccompanied children, since those constitute the most vulnerable groups among displaced children. The Mission has established the three most commonly indicated grounds for the organized displacement of these children as: (1) the evacuation for security reasons, (2) the transfer for the purpose of adoption or foster care, and (3) temporary stays in so-called recreation camps. While in the temporarily occupied territories or in the Russian Federation, Ukrainian children are placed in institutions or in Russian families – the forms of the placement include adoption, which has been applied mainly to children from Crimea (at least since 2015) or custody, guardianship or foster families which seem more common for other Ukrainian children (mainly since 24 February 2022). Whatever the form of placement, Ukrainian children find themselves in an entirely Russian environment, including language, customs and religion and are exposed to pro-Russian information campaign often amounting to targeted re-education as well as being involved in military education. The Russian Federation does not take any steps to actively promote the return of Ukrainian children. Rather, it creates various obstacles for families seeking to get their children back.

Once again confirming that Russia bombs a Ukrainian city, then offers a "recreation center" for highly stressed parents to bring their children to in order to be protected, the Russians then pretty much take the children for trafficking and make it extremely difficult for parents to get their kids back.

Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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