Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Maybe so it flies in the face of the narrative of our ravenous demand and p1ss poor supply, god knows how much they would of dropped if we had adequate supply

Its not insignificant (it may be at a small amounts at the moment) not in the face of our well documented shortage of housing supply. Dublin has seen 6 months of prices drops. At no time in the last decade has there been a period of 6 consecutive months of price drops in the most desirable county to live in within Ireland. You can bury your head all you want and I called this , this time last year I stated prices would start dropping due to access to cheap credit no longer being available. It may of been you and a few others who said no way prices will just continue to rise. So we have seen 3% drop in prices in Dublin over the last 6 months where will be this time next year with at least 2 more interest rate increases coming down the pipeline before July

losing a lot of money in 2008 crash is precisely why he is getting out now .. more than likely doesn't want to get burned again this time out 15 years later

I obviously didn’t give details of the specific property. They did say an affidavit would need to be signed by the vendor as well as proof including esb bills.

You stated Ireland is a "high income tax country". Chart number one shows how little income tax is collected in Ireland vs most other developed countries. Factcheck #1

You stated "A person earning 300k in Ireland will pay massively more income tax than in the UK and Germany". I posted both figures that showed effective tax rates for €300k are within 3% of Ireland at that income. Factcheck #2

You stated "A person earning 300k in Ireland will pay more income tax than in almost any non-Scandinavian country in Europe" - which is completely wrong, as proven by the figures for France[53%], Belgium[58%], the Netherlands [47]% etc vs Ireland's 47%. Factcheck #3

You stated "Ireland is already bleeding high income earners", when Ireland actually has significantly positive net immigration for people earning over €100k. Factcheck #4

You stated higher property taxes would "discourage downsizing", which is just wildly incorrect in the real world. Factcheck #5

You suggested as an alternative "you could increase stamp duty massively which would deter foreign money". The UK has tried this (8% stamp duty for non-residents) and it hasn't worked. Its been shown to not work as well as property taxes in the real world. Factcheck #6

I understand that you're clearly quite emotional/angry at the prospect of paying a lot more tax in future, but the least you could do is make yourself aware of relevant statistics before throwing out arguments. Its probably good if you actually are bowing at this stage, as 6 completely factually incorrect statements in a handful of posts is a very high noise:signal ratio.

To end on a helpful note I'd suggest you could at the very least start with wikipedia topics on the subject like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_in_Europe - they're very accessible for someone with no economics education and they'll improve your knowledge on the topic substantially.

On the plus side, and to drag this vaguely back on topic, these much discussed property taxes will at least help reduce foreign investment in the market and encourage downsizing, which will help reduce prices somewhat. We're just probably going to have to wait until the current corporate tax bonanza ends and the state needs to find new revenue streams for them to be implemented.

I usually wouldn't listen to a word on such websites but once you see media narrative start to shift, the pace of drops can be expected to pick up.

A lot of silliness seen last year was driven by fear.

I don’t disagree but just to add my own experience, every viewing I’ve been to is rammed and most houses going over asking considerably. I don’t know what to think at this stage

While it would appear prices will drop as a result of interest rate hikes these self same interest rate hikes will be felt by developers further squeezing profit and by extension leading to a decrease in new supply.

With the way the market is incentives maybe needed for developers to build.

In the US the prices of new builds are coming down faster than 2nd hands. Builders over there need to get cashflow running again so have no option. With a few more IR rises it will be interesting to see what happens to the demand side

There was a small soft patch towards the end of last year+ jan&feb where some houses sold for bargain prices when looking at it today.

last 3months was bidding wars and I’d expect house prices to rise again in 2-3m time when these transactions hit the land register. Based on offr live bidding website I’m starting to see some pockets in the market that have no bidders again (red bricks ber exempt, apartments in Dublin fringes or without gfch, 60/70s houses in places like templeogue needing work), but ask prices are generally higher.

But then some transactions on there are bonkers like the tramyard exchnage apartment 30% above ask, mount st annes milltown 2bed apartments selling +10% vs march land reg entries etc

https://offr.io/property/8-tramyard-exchange-27-carmans-hall-dublin-8/6656

That looks bizarre? That's the area and property type I was looking at/purchasing 2 years ago and 565k for a 2 bed apartment in that area is just wild..

I never saw anything above 400

What price point are people seeing the bidding wars at? I'm bidding on a probate sale that will be up around a million by the time it's bought, renovated and extended. There is very little interest in it, I bid on a probate sale in the same area at the end of last summer which went mental. I'm wondering is it the 4x salary change having any effect, I don't think that change would make much difference at my price point.

Housing supply is not the central banks remit so rather odd that Makhlouf would make such a comment, one suspects political interference in central banks business again.

The apartment scheme is not going to work. FTB are at family formation age and are not going to buy an apartment. They have learned lessons from the last crash, government, on the other hand, no chance