Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

ApeEvolved

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120610228#Comment_120610228

Property prices move slowly but obviously that is a big drop. Dont mind the uneducated opinions.

You have to remember prices were rising consistently until recently.

ApeEvolved

This is what happens when politicians( elected leaders ) literally tell people to not leave their homes if they are evicted.

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/dublin/dublin-news/gardai-called-to-violent-scenes-during-eviction-at-dublin-home/a270331450.html

You couldnt make it up. Simon Harris, keeping the peace with logical suggestions. Should be fired.

ApeEvolved

Any logical landlord will be fleeing in the face of recession.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120610595#Comment_120610595

There won’t be a recession. and if there is, the money taps will come on again…..

Ozark707

There seems to have been an increase (albeit from a low base) in the number of Price Reductions on myhome (Dublin only I am monitoring) in recent days. What struck me is that some of the drops are chunkier than what I previously perceived. I know of someone selling ATM. Looks to have gone SA now at asking, but far less than what the EA advised they would get.

Browney7

The new vs existing properties is continuing to look interesting. Likely that new houses that are executing now were price agreed 12 months prior and so will continue to drive upward growth in the index as the houses that were "agreed" in the past quarter get delivered at year end. https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexmarch2023/newandexistingdwellings/

The government secret sauce of the 50k "vacant" grant and 70k "derelict" grant will also come through in the next few months. I'm far from a property "bull" but I find it difficult to envisage any significant declines between now and year end (<5% on existing property). That said, if the banks stop keeping fixed rates "low" and actually start to bleed in the interest rate rises that could change things more.

TLDR - who knows!

FernandoTorres

Can't see the vacant/derelict property grants having much effect. As It's just tinkering around the edges, is difficult to qualify for and as usual sellers and builders are jacking up their prices accordingly. Current price declines are low but consistent. Property rarely drops a lot at the start but can be hard to stop once it gets going. Think we're definitely at the limits of affordability now for new buyers with current/predicted interest rates.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120610437#Comment_120610437

I struggle to believe you did any sort of research if you're still trying to maintain Ireland is a uniquely high tax country, and still making more verifiably statistically false claims. The evidence is all over the internet, but heres a very easily digestible chart to sum it up for you in one image I guess if thats whats required:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_in_Europe#/media/File:Payroll_and_income_tax_by_country.png

And heres an equally easy to digest map of the top marginal tax rates in Europe for you, since that was your initial talking point:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_in_Europe#/media/File:Top_Marginal_Tax_Rates_In_Europe.webp

You stated "Ireland is already bleeding high income earners for everything" not "’Ireland is bleeding high income earners dry" as you're now claiming. These are two completely different statements. Trying to say they're the same really shows the dishonesty of your argument when you're caught out on another factually incorrect claim.

You might claim its an extreme ideology, but I can guarantee you we'll have hugely increased property taxes, with carve outs for lower earners, in Ireland within 10 years. Its already being discussed favourably in both FF & FG internal policy discussions as being an easy, politically popular, revenue raiser. That also has hugely beneficial effects on things like reducing foreign investors squeezing Irish buyers out of the housing market.

Royale with Cheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120611408#Comment_120611408

I'm bidding on a probate sale, it was last lived in November 2022 so nowhere near the two years required to qualify for that grant. The majority of what's for sale at my price point in the areas I'm looking in are new builds or probate sales and I would say hardly any of those probate sales have been vacant for 2+ years. I can't see that grant having a major effect on prices either.

manniot2

I viewed a house yesterday and asked the estate agent how long its vacant. He asked the vendor and he said two years with the exception of a hand full of nights where a relative stayed there. Rang the council and they said that disqualifies it from the grant. Some joke.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120611562#Comment_120611562

Honestly hard to work out if you’re just low IQ or so ideologically driven that you’ll present information in whatever form suits your narrative. Either way there’s no point engaging beyond this but to show how absurd you are.

Chart 1 shows Ireland collects very little income tax…because we have such a progressive tax system where low earners pay close to nothing. Something you want to exacerbate by removing 90% of households from property tax. Genius. This chart actually supports my point and demonstrates the absurdity of your idea. Cheers.

Map shows highest marginal rates. Nothing to do with effective rates on 300k we were discussing. For reference

Ireland - top rate kicks in at €70k

Some of the other highest you’re showing

Austria - €1m

France - €1m

Spain - €300k

Apples with apples alright…

Given FG and FF just this year slashed property taxes massively down to a mere 0.10% im fairly confident they’re unlikely to increase it by a factor of 30 anytime soon, making them by far the highest in the world. If they do I’ll personally call in a give mine to you.

techman1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120608368#Comment_120608368

I noticed that but I thought he was a bit silly to be going very public with the sale. He said now is the time to be putting them up for sale now that the hotel sector is at the top of the cycle.

However if he is saying this surely a potential buyer will be put off because Francis brennan thinks its at the top of the cycle or at least will be driving a hard bargain to reduce the purchase price.

He also admitted to getting into financial difficulties after the 2008 crash and lost alot of money , he had to sell a shareholding in the hotels to the Glen dimplex chief

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612060#Comment_120612060

A bit of lateral thinking on your part, and it may have qualified.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612060#Comment_120612060

Why in God's name did you tell the council that?

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120610326#Comment_120610326

Maybe so it flies in the face of the narrative of our ravenous demand and p1ss poor supply, god knows how much they would of dropped if we had adequate supply

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612257#Comment_120612257

Does it?

Surely, given interest rate rises, the fact that prices are dropping at relatively insignificant levels is an indicator that demand remains substantial?

Since about 2016 we've been hearing on here that this time next year, houses will be worth 20/30/40/75% less than they are now, and the argument against this has always been high demand will put the brakes on, if not prevent drops. Surely, what we are seeing is evidence of this.

I mean, you literally said it yourself, prices would drop more substantially if we had adequate supply, i.e. demand is putting the brakes on drops.

Maybe the drops will speed up if demand drops further, the next 3/4 months of data will be interesting to look at, particularly as we head to the point where YoY negative may become a reality.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612419#Comment_120612419

Its not insignificant (it may be at a small amounts at the moment) not in the face of our well documented shortage of housing supply. Dublin has seen 6 months of prices drops. At no time in the last decade has there been a period of 6 consecutive months of price drops in the most desirable county to live in within Ireland. You can bury your head all you want and I called this , this time last year I stated prices would start dropping due to access to cheap credit no longer being available. It may of been you and a few others who said no way prices will just continue to rise. So we have seen 3% drop in prices in Dublin over the last 6 months where will be this time next year with at least 2 more interest rate increases coming down the pipeline before July

newmember2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612470#Comment_120612470

"It may of been you and a few others who said no way..."

Just as an aside, what does 'of been' even mean?

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612124#Comment_120612124

losing a lot of money in 2008 crash is precisely why he is getting out now .. more than likely doesn't want to get burned again this time out 15 years later

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612641#Comment_120612641

It may of been this poster as in I am not sure if was this poster or not.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612838#Comment_120612838

I think it was you who had referenced modular homes a few times?

Is an idea that you think has merit r have you seen it specifically discussed somewhere eg government, lobbyists, media etc?

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120613006#Comment_120613006

I did mention that in the context of trying to alleviate the current housing issue I suggested that the building modular homes should be ramped up they are cheaper and quicker to get on stream and would bring some stability to supply.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120613022#Comment_120613022

I agree, was just curious if it being actively considered/promoted anywhere.

JohnnyChimpo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612641#Comment_120612641

I think most of us know that the correct grammar is "have been", but you're not winning any rhetorical points here by being an arsey pedant

manniot2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612195#Comment_120612195

I obviously didn’t give details of the specific property. They did say an affidavit would need to be signed by the vendor as well as proof including esb bills.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120613029#Comment_120613029

I hear the odd rumbling about it but it has not taken off yet hopefully we will see more being built over the next 12 months

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612097#Comment_120612097

You stated Ireland is a "high income tax country". Chart number one shows how little income tax is collected in Ireland vs most other developed countries. Factcheck #1

You stated "A person earning 300k in Ireland will pay massively more income tax than in the UK and Germany". I posted both figures that showed effective tax rates for €300k are within 3% of Ireland at that income. Factcheck #2

You stated "A person earning 300k in Ireland will pay more income tax than in almost any non-Scandinavian country in Europe" - which is completely wrong, as proven by the figures for France[53%], Belgium[58%], the Netherlands [47]% etc vs Ireland's 47%. Factcheck #3

You stated "Ireland is already bleeding high income earners", when Ireland actually has significantly positive net immigration for people earning over €100k. Factcheck #4

You stated higher property taxes would "discourage downsizing", which is just wildly incorrect in the real world. Factcheck #5

You suggested as an alternative "you could increase stamp duty massively which would deter foreign money". The UK has tried this (8% stamp duty for non-residents) and it hasn't worked. Its been shown to not work as well as property taxes in the real world. Factcheck #6

I understand that you're clearly quite emotional/angry at the prospect of paying a lot more tax in future, but the least you could do is make yourself aware of relevant statistics before throwing out arguments. Its probably good if you actually are bowing at this stage, as 6 completely factually incorrect statements in a handful of posts is a very high noise:signal ratio.

To end on a helpful note I'd suggest you could at the very least start with wikipedia topics on the subject like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_in_Europe - they're very accessible for someone with no economics education and they'll improve your knowledge on the topic substantially.

On the plus side, and to drag this vaguely back on topic, these much discussed property taxes will at least help reduce foreign investment in the market and encourage downsizing, which will help reduce prices somewhat. We're just probably going to have to wait until the current corporate tax bonanza ends and the state needs to find new revenue streams for them to be implemented.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120613130#Comment_120613130

None of those fact checks are things I said or prove what you think they prove, but anyway I digress.

I’ll skip the economics lecture from the guy hoping taxes on others go high enough to get himself a free/cheap 4eva home. I’m doing just fine on my own thanks.

Who knows though, maybe if you keep praying enough money will trickle down to get you sorted. Best of luck with that! You could always try Cuba, no big mean high earners to take all the houses there on you.

ApeEvolved

I usually wouldn't listen to a word on such websites but once you see media narrative start to shift, the pace of drops can be expected to pick up.

A lot of silliness seen last year was driven by fear.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-prices-to-keep-falling-this-year-after-cso-figures-show-decline-for-three-months-in-a-row/a1331893511.html

newmember2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120613067#Comment_120613067

It's not grammar, it's fairly basic English, and I was pointing it out thinking the poster wasn't aware what they were doing.

Arsey? Good grief