Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

manniot2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120613878#Comment_120613878

I don’t disagree but just to add my own experience, every viewing I’ve been to is rammed and most houses going over asking considerably. I don’t know what to think at this stage

newmember2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120614108#Comment_120614108

Yes, I'm seeing no drops, and looks like increases if anything in Dublin. Demand is still huge.

The Student

While it would appear prices will drop as a result of interest rate hikes these self same interest rate hikes will be felt by developers further squeezing profit and by extension leading to a decrease in new supply.

With the way the market is incentives maybe needed for developers to build.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120613628#Comment_120613628

They all have literal direct quotes from your posts in them...

I guess we can add your claim you were done posting - "Either way there’s no point engaging beyond this" as Factcheck #7 eh?

I'd be quite willing to bet I've earnt more, and paid significantly more tax in my lifetime than you :) I understand its frustrating being proven repeatedly factually incorrect, but I really would suggest you educate yourself on economics a little more, even if only just to a wikipedia level. It'll help you understand the Irish property market far better.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120614172#Comment_120614172

In the US the prices of new builds are coming down faster than 2nd hands. Builders over there need to get cashflow running again so have no option. With a few more IR rises it will be interesting to see what happens to the demand side

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120614401#Comment_120614401

Factcheck this is a property thread…. Maybe look it up on Wikipedia and educate yourself……On a serious note give it a rest with your factcheck and stick to property

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120614158#Comment_120614158

There was a small soft patch towards the end of last year+ jan&feb where some houses sold for bargain prices when looking at it today.

last 3months was bidding wars and I’d expect house prices to rise again in 2-3m time when these transactions hit the land register. Based on offr live bidding website I’m starting to see some pockets in the market that have no bidders again (red bricks ber exempt, apartments in Dublin fringes or without gfch, 60/70s houses in places like templeogue needing work), but ask prices are generally higher.

But then some transactions on there are bonkers like the tramyard exchnage apartment 30% above ask, mount st annes milltown 2bed apartments selling +10% vs march land reg entries etc

https://offr.io/property/8-tramyard-exchange-27-carmans-hall-dublin-8/6656

theboringfox

Irish residential property prices on clear downward trend. That is based on facts across prices from whole market rather than individual examples or anecdotal stories. The rationale is obvious and seeing impact of rising interest rates. There is no sign yet of crash and that too makes sense given demand is strong and economy is going very well. It is a good thing for property market to return to more normal low single digit inflation. Market in Cork City has cooled. Properties being relisted after sale agreed, agents doing lot more work to get it sold. But it is still holding up fairly well and good houses in good locations will always have strong demand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615057#Comment_120615057

That looks bizarre? That's the area and property type I was looking at/purchasing 2 years ago and 565k for a 2 bed apartment in that area is just wild..

I never saw anything above 400

MacronvFrugals

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120614172#Comment_120614172

According to Makhlouf the increasing of LTI was in part to address the negative consequences of IR rises on supply.

Below scheme also bridges apartment "construction viability gap".

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/housing-planning/2022/05/10/state-subsidy-for-apartments-to-reach-144000-each-1.4874691/

Royale with Cheese

What price point are people seeing the bidding wars at? I'm bidding on a probate sale that will be up around a million by the time it's bought, renovated and extended. There is very little interest in it, I bid on a probate sale in the same area at the end of last summer which went mental. I'm wondering is it the 4x salary change having any effect, I don't think that change would make much difference at my price point.

MacronvFrugals

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615057#Comment_120615057

Inchicore has been complete boom town for the last while even as other places have cooled, i suspect it might be due to the new hospital opening up close by. Adding to that its seen by many as a better alternative to the other somewhat affordable south Dublin spots (Harold's Cross etc) but with some buzz.

Below is recent sale agreed properties in Inchicore:

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615346#Comment_120615346

Housing supply is not the central banks remit so rather odd that Makhlouf would make such a comment, one suspects political interference in central banks business again.

The apartment scheme is not going to work. FTB are at family formation age and are not going to buy an apartment. They have learned lessons from the last crash, government, on the other hand, no chance

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120614651#Comment_120614651

If New Builds are to start falling whilst construction costs are increasing, we need land values to fall substantially or else building will just stop.

My fear would be land owners will just sit rather than sell into a falling market which could then cripple supply. The zoned land tax is essential to stop this - I hope it is rigorously enforced but I have my doubts.

New housing starts were strong in Q1 after they previously looked to be weakening, which is very promising.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615370#Comment_120615370

It's worth pointing out that a lot of those old houses in Inchicore were built as housing for working class people in the 19th century. Oh how history can take us in strange directions :(

mayo londoner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615350#Comment_120615350

Was told by estate agent in Limerick that they are finding anything over 300k tough to shift. Viewed a house out in Ennis last week that was up for 199k, was about 60 people there within first 10mins of viewing, bidding was at 233k within 24hrs of viewing. Know of another property in city centre that was up for 250k and bidding was at 340k last week and still going upwards

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615507#Comment_120615507

A lot of construction costs are actually falling. What will happen is either construction companies re-align their profit margins to be a less profitable or with the current interest rates they may find their cash flow has dried up and they will hit the wall. There is gouging going on in every sector if Irish society its not just energy and food there are some old school cowboys out there building in this country. There really needs to be some regulation with regards to pricing I mean I put an extension job up and the variance in price for the same job between 6 companies was 35k how anyone can try and cream that on top of a profit margin is ridiculous. We are going to see another 2 Interest rate increases before July and there is no way property prices are going to go back up while Interest rates are taking supply away via affordability and the other knock on effects like people failing to meet the criteria for a mortgage when the banks stress tests are applied. There also needs to be a vacant site tax which is punitive and has a "use it or lose it" effect to the site owner and a ramping up of modular homes for people who cannot afford to buy their own home they should be allowed buy or rent one of these..

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615761#Comment_120615761

I really hope you’re right but I know a few people starting construction work at present and there is no softening of prices just yet. Builders are still out the door busy with people unable to even get responses to their tenders. I would have thought a general better availability of people would be the first sign of softening.

It looks like raw material prices have come down but it hasn’t translated yet. As someone hoping to do some work to the house over the next year or two, I hope they eventually do.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615806#Comment_120615806

Yeah its like energy its will take another 3/6 months to drop another 2 Rate increases before July and a real drive to get construction workers working in this country will open the market up. If you don't need the reno I would be waiting at least 12 months. I mean if property prices keep coming down surely the margin the construction companies make will have to come down also, if they don't build anything then they will find other companies will be robbing their dinner at a cheaper price point as the bills for all people and companies have to be paid.

FernandoTorres

You can see here differences between asking price and selling price: https://mynest.ie/priceregister/Dublin

Would be handy if it had some kind of filtering system.

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615968#Comment_120615968

How are they getting sale prices apparently within a week of the sale?

FernandoTorres

It's from the property price register so that date is the date it went in the register so likely sales was agreed a few months earlier.

Mav11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615968#Comment_120615968

Use Ctrl+f

d mc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615968#Comment_120615968

It's on my list of things to do - let me know if you have any specific requirements you'd like to add

d mc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615968#Comment_120615968

There is a search function here - but there's a bug with numbers & some words like the so if you're looking to search for `apt 11 the meadows donabate` seatch for `meadows donabate`

You can search the price register here

https://mynest.ie/searchpriceregister

FernandoTorres

Great! Was thinking it'd be good to have some kind of filter where for example I could search for properties in Dublin 6 listed between 600-800k or something. Even just an export to CSV option would work and then can be done in Excel.

Bakharwaldog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120616149#Comment_120616149

Love the website - Would love to see some trend data on properties for sale over time, sale price V asking price difference over time, etc.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615838#Comment_120615838

It’s not just raw materials there is also finance cost that increase with rate rises, labour costs that increase with increased cost of living. Building won’t get cheaper anytime soon I’m afraid.

Even on the raw materials you will have energy prices and increased labour costs feeding through to building products and materials.

With regards the 35k difference in quote’s your assuming each builder will do the work to the same standard and not take shortcuts that may be expensive in time.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120616535#Comment_120616535

Well I asked each to put a value to materials and each phase of the work so I could see what was what and the type/grade of material. The lad 35k over had windows/doors at 10k dearer and it was coming from the same supplier as another builder, he didnt like it when I questioned him about it or the other differentials it got quite uncomfortable for him as he knew I had him on gouging.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615370#Comment_120615370

The new hospital plays a part but having the Luas Red Line running through it is the biggie. Was Sale Agreed on a place there back in 2019.