Russia - threadbanned users in OP

The Ukrainian losses given in the leaked US Intel are sourced from Ukraine itself.

There is also a footnote that says the reliability of Ukrainian numbers about their own dead + wounded is considered unreliable.

So hardly surprising that it aligns with previous propaganda numbers they put out about losses.

Well, when this debacle is over, no doubt it will be fear of the consequences that will be the main deterrent.

I'm not sure I'd trust a 21 year old with the keys to open the office in the morning, nevermind classified documents that world security depends on. It's probably some test they use to separate the wheat from the weasels before deciding who might make a decent agent.

Kermit, why would we ever believe anything you say? You're forever promising snow and we get sun. If anything, I'm reassured of Ukrainian success purely because you don't believe it'll happen.

Ukraine can commit significantly more numbers than at the start of the invasion since it has been training volunteer forces for over a year now. Do you really think if it comes to it that brave young men and women won't pick up the gun to defend themselves if it comes to it, just because they aren't labelled "professional soldier"?

It's a thinly veiled "the EU is bad" rant but not based on any sort of reality. putin knows his plan is over it's just a matter of when and how the retreat occurs and what face-saving will occur with it. You'd expect this would deter users from making statements about russian victory, but not really, they have no issue being proven wrong on issue after issue and coming back with more in the hope of eventually being right (i.e. EU collapse).

The going in Bakhmut is savage for both sides, especially for the Red Army because they are attacking a dug in force in a city.

There losses are immense but the losses for the Ukrainian forces are going to be very big as well.

Russia can't beat Ukraine, it may well take the Donbas, at a cost that may eventually collapse it in years to come.

Taking back the occupied land means that it will be Ukrainian forces being the ones attacking in urban areas.

It could very easily see the Ukrainian forces burn out doing so.

Additional factors upsetting clear cut wins or losses.

Ukraine has about 10mn refugees abroad, if they stay abroad Ukraine is finished as a country, if there is family reunification then it is even a quicker end.

Several million more are under occupation, another million may be in Russia, often involuntary in Communist gulags. Another 10mn internal displaced.

A Russian loss may be holding what they have and their army no longer capable of offensive operations but they could see a win in that as well. Territory held, Ukraine with 25% of its population forced out and mostly women and children at that. It's economy in tatters and a permanent low level hot line of contact ensuring Ukraine is always a State at war.

Winning and losing are not clear cut.

From the earliest days I've wanted mass military support for Ukraine and thought that in the event of grain blockades, chemical attacks etc that NATO should be involved in the fight, regardless of consequences.

This conflict will in all probability be going well into next year and further. Both sides might be husks after that.

The refusal of most of Europe to be on a war footing is truly baffling.

Germany has solved the dilemma of its Socialist party going against Russia by refusing to replace any ammunition sent to Ukraine, the best way to stop guns to Ukraine is to denude the wehrmacht of basic supplies. This is replicated to a lesser degree across Europe where as the reality calls for immediate escalation of defense spending and arming up, ramping up military production as an existential issue.

Nope, the opposite for Europe.

The same leaked intelligence reports which claim they foresee Ukraine making only limited gains in a counter-offensive would be the same report which says that Russia are not forecast to take much ground either. Although Russia holding more Ukrainian territory than February 2022 would be called a victory by some, it would not be a victory relative to their opening war aims. It certainly wouldn't be a victory in Putin's mind. If he regards Ukraine as historically Russia and Ukrainians as basically Russian, he'll want the whole thing. Maybe a rump containing Lviv and the Carpathians to be tossed to the West. Putin cannot sit down to negotiate the ceding of territory Russia currently occupy because he knows the redrawn Ukraine will be fast-tracked into NATO and he'll be unable to return for another go. NATO membership has to be the only way Ukraine would agree to a peace settlement at this point, as it's the only thing which would give Ukraine any considerable protection going forward.

or just putinbots that moderate their pro putin propaganda to be a less laugh out loud funny as some of the complete loonbags who come on this thread claiming russia is winning.

May be a small problem statistically numbers -wise, but nothing small about its effects. Just imagine what the sentence in Russsia / China would be on conviction of such an offence. Death sentence more than likely.

Where did you get that nonsense figure from?

You were one of the main people claiming Russian losses were 7-10:1 compared to Ukrainian losses for months and attacked anyone who disagreed as pro Kremlin.

Am rather amazed at the change in tone

Many of us predicted this bloody stalemate as far back as last summer. I remember hearing a military guy on the Economist saying "neither side has the ability to win the war outright, but neither side can afford to lose, so it'll just drag on" and so far, notwithstanding temporary swings of fortune, I see little to suggest the prediction isn't right.

Though only a few weeks ago here there were posters confidently predicting Crimea will be back in Ukrainian hands by July.

I think your own proposal is not a bad solution: if necessary, give up a few areas in the east that are tragically not much more than rubble already but on the condition of fast track NATO membership to ensure this never happens again. Would still be a bitter pill to swallow and I understand Ukrainians who reject it, but is it worth sacrificing another 40-50k soldiers and civilians to keep going indefinitely?

Fair enough, really.