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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,482 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 847 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    I follow several Americans from a military background that put out videos or articles every day and they were zipped up no comment until the lad was arrested and a general statement was given. No deviation they all just went dead. This tells me theres a proper propaganda war on that most of us aren't aware of.

    The Russians live and die by stuffing nonsense and lies down their own populaces throat but how do they handle a gift when it might not be a gift?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    The biggest issue with the counter offensive,it could well be a one shot gig ,if they get bogged down or don't make significant breakthroughs and regain significant territories,

    There could be a what now from International backers , especially lately,less equipment seems to be getting promised as everyone's stocks and supplies are not infinite and some countries have already said they need new equipment to replace what they already sent before they release more equipment to the effort,

    Bakhmut isn't going the way we all expect ed , certainly not 30,000 + dead Russians as hoped ,

    In February alone the figures suggested the Russians were losing 150 -750 a night which would bring it up to something like 27,000 dead for February alone ,which is wide of the mark when you look at the over all losses for the war at 35,000-40,000.

    I remember when we were using Kiev independent figures for 80,000 Russians killed before the new year,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,781 ✭✭✭Homelander


    Unless I'm mistaken when people talk about those high ratios they are talking about Bakhmut.

    I've never once heard someone claim that the overall war has a ratio anything close to what's happening there on a localised level.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 476 ✭✭Mullinabreena


    Could the US leak be a way to gather more support for Ukraine? If things aren't looking as good as we thought maybe the west needs to dig deeper in support of Ukraine. Or is that conspiracy nonsense?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,781 ✭✭✭macraignil


    I would think there has to have been a propaganda war going on related to this conflict for some time so have always been skeptical about what figures are being talked about and what events are being discussed more than others. The regular talk that Bakhmut is about to fall seems very likely to me to be a ploy to suck more moskovyte resources into that area and lessen the attacks on other areas and even lessen their ability to react when Ukraine makes its move to reclaim its territory. The way the moskovytes are so used to dealing with lies may make the effect of disinformation less effective on them but guess there is no harm trying anyway. It will be interesting to see who has been duped by the efforts to misinform some time in the future when independent sources look at the real evidence of the course of the conflict.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,444 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    If the leak was solely Ukraine intel you could possibly argue that, however there were more embarrassing documents leaked to do with other friendly countries. Also the fact they arrested someone kinda makes it a non mincemeat kinda operation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @Wolf359f So no 180k dead on both sides like you claimed earlier.


    "which suggests " is what I said based off dividing the figures ,


    Suggested not claimed



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,153 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Back around when Ukraine regained Kherson, a Ukrainian official reported that Orc to Ukrainian losses in some regions, such as Kherson, were running at 1:10

    A month or so ago, a commander in Bakhmut said Orc losses were ten times Ukraines, but the problem was there were just so many of them and they just kept being replaced.

    And here you have Danilov - Ukraine's Secretary of National Security - stating very clearly that the US estimates Gatling favours are bulldust: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/20/7394258/

    "I declare with full responsibility that we do not have 100,000 casualties among the military. It is impossible. This is confidential information during wartime, but 100,000 [killed – ed.] is completely untrue."More details: The exact number, as the secretary of the National Security and Defence Council noted, is known only to the Ukrainian military and the president.

    According to Danilov, the ratio of losses is currently 1 to 7, 1 to 8, and in some cases 1 to 10 in favour of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,490 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    I wonder is the leak causing a delay with the UKranian counter offensive.

    I know they are conducting probing attacks and retook some small villages more North East, but i thought we'd have seen something far more substantial by now.

    Possible they feel they do not have the ability to conduct this attack or know its a one shot chance so they need a perfect roll of the dice?

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,444 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    One thing about the recent intelligence leak's losses were at 375,000 killed and a similar number of injured and incapacitated, which suggests both sides are around 185,000 killed

    So where is the 375,000 killed? And please don't say in Ukraine.

    You like to jump on people quoting incorrect figures.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    I believe they are still waiting on the weather and other supplies to be in place first, there's another Rammstein conference due shortly where protecting the skies and forming an IronFist is the topic for discussion, forming an IronFist was mentioned at the last conference too

    In lot of areas they are still struggling with mud and boggy conditions ,. making vehicle menuvers difficult



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,153 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I doubt it, because the increased support Ukraine needs most is 4th gen Western fighters with really good radars so they can take on the Orc SU-35's and similar. And of course it's the US who could most easily supply those if it wished, which Biden at least doesn't want to, despite many who do.

    Australia has 40-45 spare F-18s that could be supplied to ukraine. If the US wanted that to happen it would just take a quick phone call - no nead for embarrasing leaks and such theatrics.

    So yes, it makes no sense as the US doesn't need to goad itself or others.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,153 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I'd say the leak has nothing to do with it. The slow rate of supply of weapons has ruled out an early offensive. Just today the last of the Canadian leopards were offloaded in Poland and Spain promised 6 after Easter, the first 2 being sent on 9/4 with the other 4 some time after that, presumably. And in news today, Denmark is sending leopard ones 'very soon'.

    After reaching an agreement with Germany, Denmark has decided to transfer a total of 100 Leopard-1 main battle tanks to Ukraine, acting Defense Minister of Denmark, Troels Lund Poulsen, said during a joint briefing with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov on April 10.

    “We will start deliveries of Leopard tanks to Ukraine by summer,”Poulsen said.

    And so on and so on.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,649 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    No. It hasn't.


    Maybe one or two "suggested" it in relation to Bakhmut.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,147 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,153 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Yes it has, because, I have made some of those posts, backed with links.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,153 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    What a shame.

    Cigarette packets need yet another warning; about not smoking near concentrations of ammunition.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,047 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Obviously if the 7:1 or 10:1 loss ratios were everywhere, Ukraine would be in Vladivostok by now and all Russian soldiers would be dead. Given that neither side is not really advancing, the losses must be more "even".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Not a Hope,

    I'm More Pro Ukrainian than any of the johnny come latelys in the last 12 months.

    See I live in the real world, where Ukrainians are dieing along with Russians and definitely not at odds of 10-1 or 7-1 ,

    If you apply the claimed on here 10-1 just in bakhmut the majority of Russian total loses happen In bakhmut in the last few months, which goes against everything we have seen .

    Some one took an opinion given in the media and hold on it like a life jacket in a cold bath



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,666 ✭✭✭charlie_says


    Interview with British soldier in Ukraine

    https://archive.is/xAvMU



  • Posts: 7,946 [Deleted User]


    Even that old contradiction in terms US military intelligence figures released through unofficial channels are only guesstimated.

    Same as the tank kills, these figures are only verified. Even with today’s technology it’s going to be difficult to accurately assess actual casualties.



  • Posts: 7,946 [Deleted User]


    Also, it’s very annoying to see the regular few posters on here constantly defending previous utterances or their long held positions like most of us give a flying Fuk. It’s tiresome, totally irrelevant and no, your personally held opinion doesn’t add up to a hill of beans.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,251 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I have always been sceptical of the pledges of serious military equipment. It's easy to promise delivery a year down the line to gain brownie points at home and some crumbs in between when they know deep down what way this is likely to end up. Those pledges will never have to be seriously delivered on.

    This conflict has been a foregone conclusion since the start. Yes the Ukrainians are fighting bravely, doing all they can and it's disgusting what is happening but we, in Europe, need to face the inevitable and think about our own security in the aftermath. Ukraine could just be the first victim of Russian expansionism.

    A counter offensive is clearly a one shot deal. Ukraine's last chance. It has to work. Imagine the planning and knowing that's it if it fails basically. It just has to go right.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,580 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    So this 21 year old (and obviously thousands of others) had access to all this top secret material, any chance that some of the material was meant to fall into the wrong hands, something smells here, they can't be that lax.



  • Posts: 7,946 [Deleted User]


    WRONG

    Russia is a Pariah state for years to come. It gambled on a quick win and lost. It’s a laughing stock among dictator states, practically a vassal state for China. They are a future large North Korea. In fairness it was probably heading this way anyway. Communism failed, and they couldn’t convert to capitalism without their mafia taking control. They are probably doomed to serf status or emigrating. Putin has just supercharged this. Russia has already lost.

    Ukraine don’t need NATO MBT’s, their Bradley’s will do just fine for the offensive. Yes, Russia has a shît ton of dumb munitions, but that won’t win them the war. I give you the US vs Vietnam as evidence of this.

    ”Ukraine’s last chance’ Your favourite phrase of late. This is simply propaganda, plain and simple.

    You will be proved wrong, as exposed as the muppet you are.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/20/ukraine-russia-war-tanks-leopard-ifv-infantry-fighting-vehicle-bradley/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,790 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    Oh they can. Have you seen the calibre of some of the newest members of the US Armed forces? Men and women. You wouldn't trust them with a job in Centra, nevermind entrusting them with either sensitive information or a sensitive job.

    There is a whole generation of young people entering the workforces and military positions around the world who do not understand cause and effect, respect to be rewarded for just taking part in something ( ie: showing up), have absolutely zero knowledge of the geography, politics nor history outside the US and are ultra-naive.

    This guy is one of those...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,759 ✭✭✭weisses


    And in the real world losses are 1-1 according to you ??

    Mad reality ur living in then



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,251 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Ukraine can commit roughly 160,000 max to a counter offensive of a 200,000 standing force and that's being depleted all the time. Believe me when I tell you it's not enough...this is over, Just a question of when. I would prefer, in order to save lives, Ukraine enter negotiations soon and give up the pretenses.


    Let's see how the counter offensive goes, I really hope I eat my words and Ukraine is victorious. I don't think it can be.



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  • Posts: 1,656 [Deleted User]


    Over 1 million people in the US have top secret clearance. It doesn't mean they all have access to these particular documents but it gives an idea of the sheer number people who have to be given top secret clearance in order to keep things ticking over. The man who fixes the photocopier needs Top Secret clearance.

    The reason more things are not leaked is because most people don't want to leak things - they're not ideologically inclined to do so or they don't fancy the consequences.



This discussion has been closed.
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