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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    I know people who work in private sector, who got no pay increases in March.... Who work in the real estate sector.

    So don't presume everyone is getting pay increases.

    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Affordable rental @ 27% of income at the qualifying limits




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭DataDude


    I don’t disagree with you. But what we want to happen doesn’t make it so.

    This government with more money it knows what to do with, struggling for popularity will not endure public sector strikes on the way up to an election under the guise of

    ’you need to reduce your living standards so we don’t fuel inflation’.

    That would be a hard message in long term interests, and why would the government do that, save money in a rainy day fund for SF to blow on random crap when instead they can give the pay rises to try to stay in power. It’s inevitable, and people should be aware of it when thinking about the future of the property market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭DataDude


    I never said everybody is. I said lots of people are. All of the public sector and vast sectors of the private sector.

    Unfortunately if you’re not getting pay rises, you’re just falling behind - but the property market will move with the masses.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 613 ✭✭✭BoxcarWilliam99


    You could very well be right and truthfully I am coming from a position of bias as I got no such raise in March either.

    It would really say something if government pulled such a stroke. If they want to spend an ocean of cash put it into housing and infrastructure . Something that benefits everyone and future generations. Don't just give it away to public servants who are only a section of the total population.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭DataDude


    100% agree.

    But what’s the choice -

    Money to ‘the people’ (public servants) right now to avoid painful strikes and talk of teachers unable to beat their homes. Secure some votes.

    or

    Be fiscally prudent. Use the surplus to either build a reserve fund, deliver housing and other infrastructure that Sinn Fein get to claim credit for when it finally delivers many years from now?

    I’m obviously only guessing but I think the government will take the easy way out. It’s a natural consequence of elections every 5 years. Sure they couldn’t even follow through on the pension age increase because it upset the wealthiest cohort of people in the history of Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    I did get the pay increase you mentioned in March but others didn't get it.

    So a mix bag.

    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 414 ✭✭ingo1984


    Not a prayer the government are rolling out double digit public sector pay increases in a time of high inflation. Totally negates any effort of trying to control inflation. If you don't like your current salary, move job. Simple as that. People do it everyday.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Eligible tenants must have a net household income of below €53,000 a year.

    and

    Applicants must not be in receipt of any social housing supports, including rent supplement or HAP



    I'm a bit confused 🤔



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,586 ✭✭✭newmember2


    If you qualify for HAP you qualify for social housing according to your income not exceeding the threshold. Cost-rental are for those whose income exceed the HAP/social housing threshold but is still less than 53k.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 277 ✭✭Guildenstern


    Isn't the cost rentals an attempt to meet the needs of the squeezed middle? No doubt like all the few other cost rental schemes so far, they'll be heavily oversubscribed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,991 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    I would call it more a half-arsed attempt to buy their votes but otherwise yes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,551 ✭✭✭amacca


    Your first sentence is inaccurate there, do a little more research.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    The 2011 Social Housing Assessment regulations, as amended, grouped LAs together according to the estimated average cost of sourcing accommodation in the private rental sector. The nine authorities with the highest average rents were placed in a group with a baseline income eligibility threshold of €35,000 per annum (Band 1). A second bracket consisting of seven authorities with more moderate average rents were assigned a baseline income threshold €5,000 per year lower than the Band 1 cut-off point (Band 2). Finally, the 15 authorities with the lowest average prices were grouped into a third band. The baseline income eligibility threshold for this band was set at €25,000 per annum (Band 3). A local authority may set the income threshold lower than the maximum amount applied to the band to which they are assigned; however, to date, no local authority has exercised this option. It should be noted that beyond assignment to one of these grouping, there is no relationship between the cost of accommodation in a LA and the income threshold eligibility for social housing. See later in Section 3 for discussion. 

    My understanding, a couple earning 70k or less qualify for hap A household of two earners would qualify for hap if combined earnings less than 70k, meaning everyone applying for cost rental would qualify for hap except single income single applicants.

    Is that right?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I agree with the sentiment that civil servants unhappy with their remuneration should find a new job. If they cannot find a higher wage elsewhere, then they are not overpaid. However, as someone who once worked in the public service, I can assure that that is not the way the cookie crumbles in there.

    That said, I would not be at all surprised to see double digit increases in public service pay. These are the same people who contributed to the high inflation via their various actions over the last few years, so I see no reason why they would take up fiscal responsibility now. Also, don't forget that many of the people who make these decisions are themselves civil servants. conflict of interest?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 414 ✭✭ingo1984


    Any double digit pay increases in public sector will only be offset by tax increases to fund them in the first place.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Most people I know have had a significant pay ise at this point and the pnes who havent have been promised one coming soon. My company tried to get away with it and had to cave in thios year as people started leaving. We all ended up getting 10% pay rises and 10% more promised by the end of the year. They even threw in a €2000 Christmas bonus too as a gesture of things to come.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Yet people are telling us wages will not rise significantly. Even 3-4% pay rises o er 5 years will mean that what look like large mortgages payments will be very manageable.

    I dealth with it on another thread here. Daughter is a teacher five years qualified/working. She is presently on 49k. With increments and an annual an annual average pay rise of 2% her salary will be 65k in five years time. A 4% annually pay rise over 5 years is nearly a 22% rise in pay.

    It quite possible that those once again predicting a collapse in house prices are getting it wrong.

    I have said I taught there could be a 10% drop in prices during 2022/23 but prices would either level off to start rise again after that.

    I will repeat another fact that I constantly point out to. Most construction labour in Dublin travel in and out every day. They will not do it for nothing.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I doubt it. More likely, it will be paid for by debt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    By the end of this year ill be getting over a 20% pay rise in one year. Due mainly to them ignoring inflation last year. Im still not happy with that tbh. I think it should be more looking at what others have been getting since last year. I would would absolutely hate to be public sector tbh. The amount of teachers leaving my kids school is scary. Some of them probably never to teach again. Also I know quite a few gardai and not one of them is planning on staying a guard. Im sure there is much the same going on in other parts of the public sector im not privy to.

    Nothing is funny when you look around you at others getting higher pay rises than you are.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    If the government give the PS a huge pay rise at a time when they are handing out one off payments/solutions for the rest of us in the unwashed masses there will be a general election as everyone is feeling the cost of living pressures not just our public sector. I didnt hear clammer from the teachers looking for a pay cut when their wage increases outstripped inflation in the years from 2013/14 to 2018/19 (funny that it is only an issue when inflation is higher). If the government have scope to give money back out then they need to take the foot off the neck of all income tax payers and seriously reduce the amount of tax they take off the cohort who as Leo says "get up in the morning" pandering to a sector (public sector) that is paid over 20% (all verified via the CSO) than the productive sector, a guarantied pension and a job for life is the wrong way to do business, you only have to go to your local A&E for a visit to see the sh1tshow that they the government are in control of and are p1ssing away money hand over fist I mean year after year the HSE overspend is in the hundreds of millions and its getting worse and of course any wage increases in this sector will see zero improvements or greater efficiency for it. Its time to go through our spend and cut the fat (when the IMF were in town they had the chance and made so many promises about this but they didnt have the balls to face our perma government) and if there is wiggle room the focus should be on addressing the odious burden income tax payers are forced to carry in this country. So if we have money to spend and time to make some changes I would prefer they concentrated on the following.

    Income tax reduction

    House building/ramp up of modular homes

    Increased infrastructure - Roads, Schools, Hospitals, etc

    A complete overhaul of our Public sector spend

    A complete overhaul of our Welfare spend

    This list seem fairly obvious to me but not one party out there is going to do it.


    I am waiting for the Public servants telling me all the teachers are leaving and forgetting that there are far more non public sector workers heading for the exit door and this is due to how the cards are stacked against all young people (not just teachers) ... They cant get a house to buy or rent and have to pay a serious amount of income tax to work in this country at least teachers will have a pension at the end of their career and Carlsberg holidays (probably the best in the world) same cannot be said for the rest of us. Until the income tax bands are widened and the financial demands are significantly less for someone working I can see a good chunk of our younger population heading off to other countries at least they will be able to afford the rent.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Is there any solid data on just how many private sector workers have received pay rises, and by how much? Speaking personally, I got a 4.5% pay increase this year, along with a 4.5% bonus (which is taxed) and a reward card. This was, I should add, performance based, and it was only awarded because the company had a good year last year. What the civil service unions want is a blanket pay rise regardless of performance, and heedless of where the money comes from.  

    That aside, the solution to inflation is not to chase higher wages. The only thing that has ever worked to tackle inflation is to reduce the money-supply, be it through interest rates or some other means.  



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,463 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    I think its the sustainable model we need to be moving towards, the state the largest landlord with secure long term tenancies. Demand is huge for these schemes



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    It's based posts like this that keep me coming back to this forum. God bless you, sir!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    The problem in our place is that they tried to use the argument that giving salary increases was not good for inflation for over a year. Then people started leaving for other companies that did give salary increases. And it was now very difficult to compete for replacements for them with what was on offer. They ended up having to give new, less experienced staff even more money to attract them than they would have had to give the existing experienced staff who left to stay. It was too late though. I had gone to an interview myself actually and was given the surprise salary package between the interview and the job offer, so i stayed.

    There are a good few staff who work in a different departments where i am who really would find it hard to move so they didnt get increases. They are getting them now as it was noticed that moral and productivity had really dropped when they werent getting the raises everyone around them was. It was cheaper to give them the same increases than go through the process of either moving them on and replacing them, or threatening them and you never know what way they will react.

    There is only so long long you can resist inflation, no matter how big your resolve.

    Every company will be following if they have not realized that already.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Every company wont follow as in a lot of cases in the private sector - private companies are now essentially locked out of borrowing due to the high interest repayments they don't have the bank of TAX PAYER POCKETS to pay or borrow for everything. The cost of everything like heating, petrol, insurance and every other necessity that someone running a business has to pay has shot up over the last 18 months and in a lot of cases pay rises to staff will be the wave that drowns them. Already insolvencies in Ireland in 2022 are up nearly 40% on 2021 and PWC are predicting that this figure will ramp up this year. Yeah but its hunky dory in the private sector pay rises for everyone maybe in the Walter Mitty land you work in but it is not the case for the vast majority of private sector companies out there.


    https://www.pwc.ie/media-centre/press-releases/2023/restructuring-update-q4.html



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Your post reminds of this excellent podcast from March which explains the presidential cycle in relation to asset prices

    Government spending and policies ramp up 18 months out from an election so that it's given time to filter into the economy. This boosts the job market and asset prices through Bidens inflation reduction act. (the irony of the name)

    Ireland and us elections will be very close to each other this coming term. Think of what the Irish government have implemented

    Changed the mortgage rules

    Implemented a shared ownership scheme

    Doubled the housing spend from 2 billion to 4 billion (most of it buying existing property and propping up rents)

    All these policies increase house prices and rents, therefore our government are still in the camp that higher house prices = more votes.

    If your major issue is housing this government is working to make your issue worse

    45 minutes of Jeremy Grantham thoughts and opinions for free. Enjoy

    David Rosenberg was charging 120 dollars to listen to his interview with Jeremy




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Yes, but the difference is that many (if not most) of the civil servants who will get a pay rise would not find a job in the private sector that would offer a higher salary. As I've always said, if one believes themselves to be underpaid, that must mean that there is someone who is willing to pay them more than their current employer to do the same job. If there is not, then they are not underpaid.  

    Taking myself as an example. I earn slightly above the average salary for someone in my area with my level of experience. I would like more money, but I would not get a lot more if I were to move to a different job. Ergo, I'm not underpaid. The civil service unions are trying to get a blanket increase for people regardless of performance, and regardless of the demand for the job that they fill. This is also ignoring the many boons that working in the civil service offers such as security, flexibility, a pension and near impossibility of termination.

    "Every company will be following if they have not realized that already."

    Private companies are not the civil service. It's apples and organges. If they were comparable, then thousands of civil servants would have been made redundant during the crash.  



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    If everyone around you got a raise but you, how would you feel? If you stayed in your job would it effect your productivity?

    I think people overblow just what a nice job a public sector job is.

    I did a contract in the department of agriculture for about 18 months. What I saw were a few wasters alright but the vast majority were just exactly the same type of workers as you see anywhere else. Just normal people doing a normal job.



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