Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Quell surprise

This the same union that threw new recruits under the bus after the last crash.

We need an inflation rate for homeowners and non homeowners

Probably said enough at this stage - but wage inflation really is here to stay. With recent announcements on Corporate Tax, the government will have money coming out their eyeballs this year to a level possible never ever seen by any country in recent history. Election getting closer. It really wouldn’t surprise me if we see another round of bumper (double digit) public sector pay rises later this year.

Large swathes of private sector just received 5-10% in March. Next year likely to be elevated again.

Ultimately this is why we chose to buy 18 months ago. It’s very difficult to envisage material house price reductions with the backdrop of massively elevated wage inflation and loosening lending restrictions even with mortgage rates going up.

I know people who work in private sector, who got no pay increases in March.... Who work in the real estate sector.

So don't presume everyone is getting pay increases.

I don’t disagree with you. But what we want to happen doesn’t make it so.

This government with more money it knows what to do with, struggling for popularity will not endure public sector strikes on the way up to an election under the guise of

’you need to reduce your living standards so we don’t fuel inflation’.

That would be a hard message in long term interests, and why would the government do that, save money in a rainy day fund for SF to blow on random crap when instead they can give the pay rises to try to stay in power. It’s inevitable, and people should be aware of it when thinking about the future of the property market.

I did get the pay increase you mentioned in March but others didn't get it.

So a mix bag.

Your first sentence is inaccurate there, do a little more research.

I agree with the sentiment that civil servants unhappy with their remuneration should find a new job. If they cannot find a higher wage elsewhere, then they are not overpaid. However, as someone who once worked in the public service, I can assure that that is not the way the cookie crumbles in there.

That said, I would not be at all surprised to see double digit increases in public service pay. These are the same people who contributed to the high inflation via their various actions over the last few years, so I see no reason why they would take up fiscal responsibility now. Also, don't forget that many of the people who make these decisions are themselves civil servants. conflict of interest?

Most people I know have had a significant pay ise at this point and the pnes who havent have been promised one coming soon. My company tried to get away with it and had to cave in thios year as people started leaving. We all ended up getting 10% pay rises and 10% more promised by the end of the year. They even threw in a €2000 Christmas bonus too as a gesture of things to come.

I doubt it. More likely, it will be paid for by debt.

If the government give the PS a huge pay rise at a time when they are handing out one off payments/solutions for the rest of us in the unwashed masses there will be a general election as everyone is feeling the cost of living pressures not just our public sector. I didnt hear clammer from the teachers looking for a pay cut when their wage increases outstripped inflation in the years from 2013/14 to 2018/19 (funny that it is only an issue when inflation is higher). If the government have scope to give money back out then they need to take the foot off the neck of all income tax payers and seriously reduce the amount of tax they take off the cohort who as Leo says "get up in the morning" pandering to a sector (public sector) that is paid over 20% (all verified via the CSO) than the productive sector, a guarantied pension and a job for life is the wrong way to do business, you only have to go to your local A&E for a visit to see the sh1tshow that they the government are in control of and are p1ssing away money hand over fist I mean year after year the HSE overspend is in the hundreds of millions and its getting worse and of course any wage increases in this sector will see zero improvements or greater efficiency for it. Its time to go through our spend and cut the fat (when the IMF were in town they had the chance and made so many promises about this but they didnt have the balls to face our perma government) and if there is wiggle room the focus should be on addressing the odious burden income tax payers are forced to carry in this country. So if we have money to spend and time to make some changes I would prefer they concentrated on the following.

Income tax reduction

House building/ramp up of modular homes

Increased infrastructure - Roads, Schools, Hospitals, etc

A complete overhaul of our Public sector spend

A complete overhaul of our Welfare spend

This list seem fairly obvious to me but not one party out there is going to do it.

I am waiting for the Public servants telling me all the teachers are leaving and forgetting that there are far more non public sector workers heading for the exit door and this is due to how the cards are stacked against all young people (not just teachers) ... They cant get a house to buy or rent and have to pay a serious amount of income tax to work in this country at least teachers will have a pension at the end of their career and Carlsberg holidays (probably the best in the world) same cannot be said for the rest of us. Until the income tax bands are widened and the financial demands are significantly less for someone working I can see a good chunk of our younger population heading off to other countries at least they will be able to afford the rent.