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Is Berties PR machine really powerful enough to pull this off?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,653 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    I think he has a fair chance of winning the Aras. The weekend polls saying the electorate dont favour either Ahern or Adams are irrelevant because it is not a 1 or 2 horse race and you dont need a majority to win it.

    People forget how stupid many Fianna Fail voters actually are. In the election right after they fcuked the economy FF voters still voted for them to the tune of 17%. Thats your died in the wool FF base, you can take money out of their pockets and tax them to oblivion but they will still vote for FF.

    All Ahern needs to do is build on that 17% of idiots and get to circa 25%-27% which is typically enough to win the Aras in a crowded field of 6 or 7 candidates. That is not an impossible task. Also the polls at the weekend spun it as how many people would not vote for Ahern but when you broke it down the amount of people who said they definitely would vote for him and probably would vote for him or consider it came to almost 35%. Ahern will be salivating at those numbers because it shows it is possible. It is certainly more possible than his current odds of 12/1 on Paddy Power would suggest, the bookies are way off the mark on his actual chances of winning it. I've just put 20 quid on him because at least if he does win it the 240 quid profit will make me somewhat less annoyed about it.

    Post edited by Muahahaha on


  • Registered Users Posts: 41 DrivingMrDaisy


    In fairness i haven't spoken to a single person who wants too see this creature as president so that is comforting. I sincerely hope the Irish populace isn't that stupid as to let it happen.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,693 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,858 ✭✭✭growleaves


    My feeling *at the time* was that people felt his cuteness was like an avatar for their own cuteness.

    A lot of people were making money and there was a kind of grinning 'We don't care' attitude when the first damaging allegations about Bertie became prominent.

    Cynical people see their own dishonesty as a form of cleverness. They're 'too smart' to be sincere.

    When Bertie and the economy crashed and burned, these people were probably extra angry due to their own - buried, denied but subconsciously apparent - foolishness.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,856 ✭✭✭Augme



    But 51% saying they definitely would not vote for him is largely going to be 51% votingng for his closest rival to ensure he doesn't get it. He'll be the most divisive presidential candidate ever. The people who love him are drastically outnumbered by the people who genuinely hate him.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,653 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Thats presuming tactcal voting though and its not likely to the extent required imo especially if the field is as crowded as last time out. As said he only needs to get to around 25-27% and that should be enough to win it. I reckon he will be in the top 2 along with Mairead McGuinness. Also presidential elections have very low turnouts of around 45% and that will suit Ahern down the ground because he would get his vote out. Whether he wins it or not remains to be seen but it will be a lot closer than people think. At 12/1 he is well worth a punt, those odds wont be seen again if he declares for it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,808 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    I don’t “genuinely hate him” but I also don’t want to see someone in the Aras that a lot of the population “hate”- while many don’t really like Mickey D, or don’t think he’s a good president, there are very few out there who actually “hate” him personally.

    But as the poll says, it all depends on the candidates- for me, if there’s 3 other candidates and they’re Dana or Sean or Peter like we had in previous elections then sorry I’m voting Bertie



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,856 ✭✭✭Augme



    The crowded field won't matter though. I think tonassume tactics vot8ng wouldn't happen with Bertie involved is a stretch too, and assuming a low turnout remains is as well. As I said, given the divisive nature of Bertie I think the changes the dynamics of a any presidential election he is involved and makes it harder to compare with previous years.


    12/1 I would consider a fair price though, not sure I'd be taking anything less at this stage. His health will be a huge determining factor on whether he runs and he looks like **** at the minute.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,775 ✭✭✭buried


    His "peace process legacy" is basically boiled down to this - He was the one sitting his inept arse on the Taoiseach's chair when the British establishment and the Provisional IRA leadership came to an agreement that they could not engage any longer with a bloody war that had the means and function to continue for another 100 years of an all out conflict. Another century of destruction. It had f**k all to do with Ahern, you could have had a donkey sitting on the Leinster House throne, they would have been lauded with this nonsense notion of "legacy" too. The "peace process" was secured in 1987 when the arsenal of the 'Eksund' was infiltrated, when the British finally copped on that the PIRA had the means to wage war on a monumental scale for decades, it had nothing to do with Ahern.

    "You have disgraced yourselves again" - W. B. Yeats



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,667 ✭✭✭John_Rambo


    That's an interesting view on what Berties role was. Very much at odds with those involved and those reporting on the facts.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭redlough


    Have a look at the government polls at the moment and I totally agree with you in regards to "scary that people are already forgetting"



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭redlough


    I suggest you read up on the history of what actually happened with the GFA. None of that post is historically correct



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,569 ✭✭✭veryangryman


    Bertie is like the big clumsy striker who taps in a cross after the guys before him have done the mazy dribble and beat 5 men



  • Registered Users Posts: 436 ✭✭Stanley 1


    Always thought it would be a woman that would shaft Bertie either his ex missus, Myriam or his partner, Celia Larkin, but he seems to have paid both off and right now they ain't for turning.

    However reckon it would be a different story with Grainne Carruth, whom I believe can't be bought off easily and she will not have forgotten the humiliation she suffered from an SC as Bertie abandoned her on the stand and expected her to lie for him.

    Any future opponent to Ahern need just bring her along to a Press Conference and Ahern would be heading for the hills or maybe Nigeria, who were so fond of his Celtic Tiger fables, or more likely wherever Sean Dunne is living.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,741 ✭✭✭Karppi


    What about Miriam's chances? (O'Callaghan for the avoidance of doubt and confusion). Isn't she a threat to Bertie's ambitions?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,858 ✭✭✭growleaves




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,635 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    I'm actually disgusted at Newstalk for giving Bertie Ahern as stage.

    It's really quite disgusting and very irritating, so much so that I actually made a complaint to Newstalk FM about it. (Not something I'd normally do)

    The man is a disgraced politician, and a relic of the Haughey era. I would speculate there was a heap of other stuff he was up to in that time that he was never caught for.

    The rubbish he spouted about the peace process was the worst of all. Most people that follow politics know that it was Spring and Reynolds that did most of the heavy lifting on the Peace Process and Bertie got in there at the end for the photo op

    I do not know if he will become president or not, but if he does, I'd have very little faith in the political process going forward. (For the foreseeable)



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭redlough


    Trying to down play Bertie's role in the peace process is a bit bizarre to be honest. It is ok to admit that he done a good job in he peace process but also failed in other section of his job.

    On one hand we are been fed by people that the past is in the past for some politicians. Then other we are been told we should never forget

    So which one is it?

    Also I will point out, I am not defending Bertie here and he should have stayed retired as far as I am concerned.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,635 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    I recognize he contributed towards it, but he and the media seem to imply (as I see it) that it was him who orchestrated the entire thing, and that it would never happened without all his political work, which is just not historically correct.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,569 ✭✭✭veryangryman


    Can somebody please spell out what exactly he did for the peace process. What did he say to who and when? What rabbit did he pull out of a hat?



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,693 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    I would be a big critic of Ahern but to his credit, he did get the sides to sit down and talk which ultimately led to the GFA. To remove his input from the peace process would be wrong.

    He is still a corrupt lying prick in my eyes nonetheless.



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭redlough


    Why don’t you read up on the GFA and then you can figure out what he did/didn’t do

    You did accuse people of not remembering history a few posts ago after all

    i don’t see that and certainly that would be wrong as John Hume is the man to thank for that



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,775 ✭✭✭buried


    Well then elaborate John, why do you think the British Security establishment felt the need to come to a negotiation table with the PIRA in the 1980's, was it because they discovered the PIRA was receiving 300 tonne shipments of arms every year onto the Island of Ireland to be used against them? Or was it because Mr. Bartholomew Ahern?

    "You have disgraced yourselves again" - W. B. Yeats



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭redlough




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,952 ✭✭✭mikemac2


    Well Ukraine has a comedian as a President so shure why not ha

    Working for News of the World was very questionable judgement though! But man of the people and all that fake carry on was what he was into.




  • Registered Users Posts: 436 ✭✭Stanley 1


    NOTW got him a publishing contract for the daughter, in return Ahern gave Sky an exclusive contract on GAA coverage, is is thought by a lot of people Cecilia's first book was plagirised from a Turkish original and translator + ghostwriter then set her on the way to success.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,584 ✭✭✭Mal-Adjusted


    I always thought it was strange that an unproven writer would somehow get a film deal for her very first book before it was even published yet.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    How much is he currently receiving annually from the Irish taxpayer ?

    What is the running total he’s received since he was found to have lied during a 15 year inquiry costing the Irish taxpayer an additional €250 million euro ?

    Now putting himself forward for an extra €250,000 euro a year from the Irish taxpayer.

    Politics has been a golden egg for many people over the years.

    The money they steal from the Irish taxpayer is such an entitlement that when they want more they almost literally don’t know where else to turn.

    It says so so much about everything that is wrong with Ireland that this scumbag thinks he can attempt another cash grab from the Irish taxpayer.

    They won’t stop until they’ve taken everything that the taxpayers are seemingly happy to give to them.

    Crime after crime after crime and nobody ever prosecuted. All these crimes passed off as ‘scandals’.

    How has there never been a violent revolution ?

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users Posts: 906 ✭✭✭BK5


    His interview with Andrew Neil tells you everything about Ahern. He thought he was going to do a fluff piece where Neil asked him easy questions and praised him for bringing peace to the island of Ireland.

    When he was asked questions he didn't like or expect it was waffle and bluster and then he just got up and stormed out. Neil made him look as guilty as he is, he should have served time in jail or at the least been hit with a massive tax bill. A corrupt liar.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,667 ✭✭✭John_Rambo


    Very good.

    Back on topic, I'm more interested about who told you that "the peace process had nothing to do with Bertie".



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