Russia - threadbanned users in OP

They have transferred a Fair amount but they do need to have something for their own defense and training,

Sure why don't we make our own defense forces unemployed and and send everything we have guns ,ammo , mortar's, anti tank weapons,

Don't think it would go down so well ,let alone with countries who have been occupied since WW2 to recently

Seeing as i was replying to a post on the previous page im not sure why i need to go back to the start of the thread . Thanks for the useful input anyway .

dp

Because it can take time for all the NATO capability to be deployed and why gift your invader more territory than is necessary?

EU common defence ??? What about NATO ? Last time I checked Poland was a member

You could argue thats why they wont supply Abrams to Ukraine either, but are more than happy to supply the rest of Europe and are very keen on Germany exporting their own, and allowing other EU members to export their leopards.

Germany simply cannot replace the leopards in their own stocks or other countries' stocks in a reasonable timeframe. So if Poland, Finland, Spain etc were to donate their leopards to Ukraine - that will be the end of them fielding Leopards, and being reliant on Germany for parts and maintenance etc etc.

Anyone who gives their Leopards to Ukraine becomes an Abrams customer instead - a nice little way for the US to further destroy the German arms industry

Given how small and slow the Leopard production is, I don't know how it will be 'destroyed'. Sounds like it destroyed itself by complete inability to scale in a crisis.

Won't Ukraine be in need of all those things for its Leopards?

And wasn't Germany supposed to be increasing its own military budget? Why wouldn't it be restoring and buying Leopards???

Or was that a lie too?

Germany, for better or worse, have not been able to siphon off nearly as much public money to their defense industries to make tanks. Even their stockpiles are low. Compare that to the Abrams stocks in the US - night and day the difference. Now the US likely couldnt produce enough new abrams' either, but they dont need to. they have the stocks to sell (or upcycle and sell). Germany do not have such stocks. So if EU countries send their leopards to Ukraine, they simply cannot possibly get those stocks replenished in the next decade.

So they will get abrams instead, and become new loyal customers.

That scenario makes no sense. European countries aren't going to send all their Leopard stock to Ukraine and buy Abrams instead. If Finland send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, they will send 10-20 tanks of their older A4 stock (which are in reserve anyway), and keep the rest - and will possibly replace them with more modern models when it's possible to do so. They aren't going to buy Abrams tanks.

He wrote a good article on the subject for the Irish Times last week too (January 14th). He says many Ukrainians told him they see Ireland as a role for Ukraine, a country that was able to transform itself within 20 years with EEC / EU membership.

Rocket Science 101

Every action has an equal and opposite reaction

A rocket works by pushing stuff out the back, in order make it go forward.

The stuff pushed out the back is gone for good, leaving orbits aside, you can only keep going forward for as long as you have stuff to push out the back.

Ergo, if it has unlimited range, it isn't a rocket.

Ukraine claim to need at least 300 MBTs. If European countries supplied 300 leopard 2s, Germany at current rate could replace stocks in only 12 years, with their current production rate of ~2 per month. Although in reality it would be longer than that, as other Leopard 2s need replaced during that time also. can they increase production? Eventually yes, but it will be very costly and in a time period of massive Producer price inflation for Germany. The logistics of making modern MBTs is a nightmare to scale quickly. There are several different factories and enterprises involved in making different components, all of which have their own supply chains that may or may not be able to scale quickly.

While theyve done well to get more LNG to replace russian gas, producer prices are still well above pre war for them. Without russian metals theyll do well to ramp up production in an anyway viable/affordable manner, compared to the competition (US).

If Ukraine win, then there is a great source of all kinds of metals and rare earths there, BUT it will take a number of years to get the resource extraction and facilities in place. The ones that existed before are all badly damaged now courtesy of "General Armageddon" and his indiscriminate bombing campaign.

As you said, this is a very nervous time worldwide and countries are re-arming and building up their defensive capabilities, so the potential of waiting several years just to get back to 2021 levels of stock of MBTs will not sit great with those Euro countries who give away their leopards. Many a deal to be struck to buy Abrams instead in that timeframe.

In other news turkey is public stating they will block any attempt from the swede's to join Nato after a public burning of the Quran outside embassy in Stockholm recently.

This could get ugly .