FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

CirrusBusiness · 07-01-2023 12:47PM

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esposito · 07-01-2023 01:13PM

Long way to go as always when it comes to cold weather in these parts but promising signs for a proper cold blast in second half of Jan

Billcarson · 07-01-2023 02:08PM

Things are starting to look better for the second half of the month. Can we finally break the second half of January curse this year with a decent cold spell ?????

bazlers · 07-01-2023 05:16PM

Well at least the depressing chat has ceased..i was getting worried for some of ye.

Anyhow as in politics and weather alot can change in 24hrs. Next weekend certainly for now looks tasty. That is if you like frosting..

Larbre34 · 07-01-2023 05:17PM

It very much seems so, but we'll be dealing with a very warm continent which doesn't have anything like its seasonal cold pool established, which will reduce potential sources to a rare NE'ly coming from a polar sourced air mass.

Interesting 10 days of modelling ahead.

nacho libre · 07-01-2023 07:19PM

A proper Arctic blast if it came off. Also the PV would be under pressure. Unfortunately the GFS has been pants for a while now , so I doubt we will see this occur.

pauldry · 07-01-2023 07:41PM

Can't even look at the GFS anymore. It's a broken output since it's "upgrade". Reminds me of when they update apps and websites like boards and met and made them worse.

Best to look at the overall trend and overall around mid month it turns cooler though knife-edge so needless to say it won't be snow for all just inland probably and a mainly nighttime hope if you want sticking snow.

Today was supposed to be snow shower day only last Wednesday according to Met Eireann so a long way to go yet. Today has ended up 6 to 10c so even our best weather service get it completely wrong 72hours out.

.Donegal. · 07-01-2023 08:08PM

Paul I think they had the snow forecast for Sunday(tomorrow) when they issued that forecast and the snow chance had just disappeared on the latest model runs when they issued it early in the morning. It was removed on their next update. They do mention sleet for higher ground in the sw and w tomorrow. Completely agree about the gfs it is just awful now. I liked the older version.

PokeHerKing · 07-01-2023 08:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120079014#Comment_120079014

ECM not dissimilar a day earlier. GFS has shown the 17th as a change for a while now so it's not doing too bad.

WolfeEire · 07-01-2023 08:53PM

UKMO also reflecting potential for a polar martitime flow sometime next weekend. Such a setup can often deliver snow via frequent blustery showers. JMA the same.

The GEM does show heights building in the western atlantic to Greenland. NAO showing a trend towards neutral by the date progged on the below GEM

.Donegal. · 07-01-2023 09:54PM

ECM some snow for tomorrow week and day 9 and day 10 especially across ulster. By day 10 widely above 10cm in the NW and above 30cm across the Sperrins. Pinch of salt at this range. Good to see all the same.

Gonzo · 08-01-2023 11:30AM

I don't see much excitement on any of the models. Staying mostly mild and Atlantic driven, there may be some brief 24 hour cooler interludes with a polar maritime flow with milder air coming back very quickly as everything will be pushing across us from the Atlantic. No real sign of any blocking as of yet.

But perhaps this is a sign that the jetstream will start to buckle and become more amplified by the end of January and possibly opening up the door to a proper cold spell further down the line.

Meteorite58 · 08-01-2023 02:01PM

ECM showing more prolonged cold out to +240hrs than the GFS, GEM very similar to the ECM, ICON similar to ECM and GEM as is the Australian model.

ECM has plenty of areas of LP knocking about so plenty of opportunities for mixed wintry precipitation. From next weekend at some stage currently looking like cold days and some frosty nights in places away from breezy coasts into the following week.

A lot of weather to get through first though with no shortage of rain and blustery conditions to see if it turns to a more true N'ly. Looks like leading to a mainly cold airflow form the W, NW out of Labrador at times and no sign of blocking to steady things down as Gonzo said so looks like transient weather for now, could be a dump of snow at some stage ,even for a number of hours next week, if the parameters align .

It will keep us watching and guessing 😀

Elmer Blooker · 08-01-2023 02:36PM

No mention of the four letter C word from Joanna just there, (cold that is) Temperatures down a bit by next weekend.

Its either a Euro, Iberia or an Azores high that eats up our winter year in year out, the Azores gets the honour this year. I wouldn’t write off winter just yet, a cold spell before Christmas is almost always followed by another later in the winter, not a prediction just an observation from looking at past winters.

nacho libre · 08-01-2023 03:05PM

Well considering many of us still have not seen a flake of snow this winter, I think we might like to see some snow even if it is transient. There are tentative signs with the Azores high being displaced and heights dropping in Europe that it may lead to something more. We also need to keep an eye on what happening in other areas as it could lead to further pressure being put on the Strat Vortex.

WolfeEire · 08-01-2023 05:35PM

The GEM is...interesting

Cork2021 · 08-01-2023 07:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120082433#Comment_120082433

👀👀👀👀

Jizique · 08-01-2023 08:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120082433#Comment_120082433

It is likely wrong, wetter.de saying winter is basically done on their 42 day forecast, couple of cold days end this month but nothing like they had in Dec with Feb looking milder than usual across country

Gonzo · 08-01-2023 08:28PM

The 42 day forecast rarely get it right after 4 to 5 days. The ECM extended forecast is similar, it gets updated twice a week and each update usually brings a completely different scenario from week 2 onwards.

mcburns07 · 08-01-2023 08:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083087#Comment_120083087

What amazing model are they using that can forecast accurately months in advance? 🥱

giveitholly · 08-01-2023 08:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083087#Comment_120083087

Ah here,no one can forecast the weather accurately past 5 days

Cork2021 · 08-01-2023 09:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083214#Comment_120083214

I’d go as far as we can’t forecast correctly past 3 days

Rescue Remedy · 08-01-2023 11:37PM

In a way it's nice we can only forecast for 4 or 5 days. The day we can accurately forecast for 21 days ahead is a frightening concept for me!

WolfeEire · 09-01-2023 12:33AM

UKMO MOGREPS for Dublin showing colder conditions next weekend (late Saturday into Sunday).

A northwesterly Polar Maritime flow with mixed and blustery wintry showers is the general consensus on models.

I would say the coming week will further drive up the mean temp for January but that it will start dropping back for the second half of the month as any colder interludes are likely to be from a NW to N source as opposed to W to WNW like we have had in Jan to date.

The main theme of the coming week's weather is rainfall, particularly for Atlantic coastal counties where totals could exceed 70mm, particularly in west Galway and in the southwest. Moderate to strong winds for the most part up to the weekend.

Larbre34 · 09-01-2023 01:36AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083087#Comment_120083087

I've got a monorail for sale you might be interested in also.

Jizique · 09-01-2023 11:02AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120084176#Comment_120084176

I never said it was to be relied on 100%, but it is interesting nevertheless - the reality is that continental weather is different to an island sitting on the edge of the Atlantic, so if a high establishes itself over the continent, it is more likely to remain in place for a longer period. Sorry to dampen down all the snow bulls.

Gonzo · 09-01-2023 11:41AM

The high pressure over much of southern Europe, particularly Spain and Portugal looks like it's going to stay anchored there for the rest of January, like most winters there is just no shifting it at all.

For us the trend is to keep everything Atlantic driven right up to the end of the month although the second half of January is likely to be slightly cooler than the first half but not by much with temperatures close to average or ever so slightly below average at times. This could lead to a wintry mix on northern and western hills with cold rain most likely to lower levels.

As for the CFS extended looking at the longer range, it does appear to be regularly showing things becoming significantly more wintry for February and indeed March. So maybe February is the month to watch.

nacho libre · 09-01-2023 01:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120084681#Comment_120084681

Yes, that's true. However writing off the rest of winter at this stage is folly. What might have been more reasonable to say is, based on the wetter.de long range a protracted freeze is unlikely given the persitance of heights over Iberia and low pressure to the North West, but temporary pm or Arctic interludes, which could bring snow at times, are possible with the jet looking to be on a North West to South East tilt from mid January onwards.

Oneiric 3 · 09-01-2023 03:01PM

That lack of any storminess this winter gets me. It seems that even pitiful 'named' storms now are becoming a thing of the past, and only further proves that mean wind speeds in general are continuing on their rapid decline over our specific Atlantic region.

Billcarson · 09-01-2023 03:20PM

Old Moores Almanac is going some light snow for the end of Jan and for a dry and unusually cold Feb if that's any use 😄. Also cold next Nov with early snow. Cold Dec with more snow............🤪

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST