FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
Comments
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GFS 12z and the PV. Over the next 7 to 10 days the PV is set to strengthen, perhaps a response to the extreme level of zonality the entire way across the northern hemisphere at mid latitudes. The low to mid levels of warming around the PV over recent weeks is set to die off too. This will keep any real cold bottled up in the artic circle keeping everywhere across North America, Europe and Asia relatively mild.
However there are signs in the GFS 12z that as we enter the second week of January possible changes to the PV with moderate warming coming back and may lead to the PV coming under strain again. This will have to be watched as it could be the beginning of a possible SSW later in January and along with it more of a chance for cold air to begin moving south once again.
PV by January 8th.
The above is not an SSW but a rather strong warming which isn't quite enough to promote proper northern blocking, but the fact that the warming could start again and intensify is a good sign. Certainly something to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks.
Another change in the 12z over the GFS runs of the past several days is thankfully less in the way of rainfall. It still looks unsettled but rainfall totals nowhere near recent runs, particularly in the eastern half of the country.
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Just an update on the GFS pub run and the PV. Just like the 12z we see a big warming towards the end of the run except this time we reach SSW levels and can't go any further.
If only we could push ahead by another 24 to 48 hours.
This will probably be gone by the morning but could easily come back in a later run. Could this be the start to the killing blow of the PV and much more exciting model watching going forward!?
The pub run also brings us high pressure with very warm uppers, a bit of an outlier, but because this is winter this high pressure generates some very chilly nights with frost. We also see a big reduction in rainfall totals yet again.
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I reckon it's a bit early to start seeing blocking and easterlies in the models but GFS had a go of it on the 00z, however if it was to verify there is no cold there as all of Europe would be relatively warm by that point and no cold to tap into. We're going to have to cool down northern and eastern Europe again before we can even think of having a successful cold spell. Despite not much proper cold on that 00z run it was still one of the coldest runs right at the end with the vast majority going for a continuation of the mild Atlantic driven pattern.
and the SSW on the 00z was even stronger than the pub run.
GFS 6z still rolling out, let's see does it continue with the SSW.
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New Year’s Eve severe storm if it plays out like that. 7 days out. Potential for our first named storm of the season next week. Gusts of 160km/h just off the SW coast at 6pm,150km/h towards Galway coast. 173km/h over the Kerry mountain tops. Next frame is 6 hours later and it’s 144km/h off the Donegal coast.
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Ecmwf 12Z showing fairly widespread snowfall on Sunday and much colder conditions to start the new year. GFS 12Z has that low pressure a little further westwards keeping us on the milder side. Encouraging signs from the ECMWF model if your looking for a bit of sneachta.
Friday night and Saturday morning there is another interesting feature running into the west and northwest that needs to be watched could result in some accumulations of snow across western and northwestern counties.
Still some uncertainty on the exact track which will be crucial especially for Sunday but interesting watch ahead to see what happens.
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GFS 12z, first time checking the models in quite a while and we are no closer to cold and snow than we were over a week ago. An incredibly zonal pattern stretches right out till at least January 8th with mostly mild conditions but some cooler sectors alternating but essentially everything is basically mild and no sign of any cold on the models for us.
We may have to wait till second week of January before we start hopefully seeing some more interesting charts for cold and snow. There are some cold outliers starting to appear towards the middle of the month, we would want to see alot more of these turning from mild to cold over the next 10 days to have any sort of confidence in predicting a spell of properly cold weather.
No let up in the rain either with plenty of rainfall over the next 2 weeks, particularly in western areas.
The GFS has been playing around with the idea of a SSW around mid January, some runs go full on SSW while others have minor to significant warmings which fall short of an SSW, but it does look like the PV will come under pressure in the second half of January. GFS 12z doesn't go for a SSW but it does turn the PV less cold than it is now. Currently the core of the PV is around -85C and we see these values dropping back to -76 in about 2 weeks time. It remains to be seen if we will get an SSW but quite a few of the GFS runs are going for one.
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The snow in the GFS is from an Atlantic low pushing through the country with a chilly north-westerly flow. The GFS usually overplays snow potential from colder westerlies with cold rain the most likely result. IF it did verify chances are it would be a temporary dusting away from high ground. I'm still playing the waiting game for hopefully a major flip back to cold in the second half of January or early February.
GFS 6z also has a very nice SSW developing.
IF we do get a proper SSW around the 2nd or 3th week of January, if it's successful in affecting our weather we wouldn't really feel the effects of that till maybe early February. For an SSW to have an affect on our weather in January we would have had to have a major SSW already during the Christmas.
Just looking at the other models and they all seem to be pushing towards a north-west to south-east zonal flow for the second week of January which would bring a risk of wintry precipitation mostly to high ground in the north and west.
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Define "proper", they were both major SSW events. The zonal winds at 60N 10hPa reversed to easterly in both. They were both PV displacements whilst the 2018 event was a PV split as per the table below I have shared before.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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