Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2022/2023 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Just keeping an eye on that deep area of LP skirting by us later Fri into Saturday. Breezy and quite wet frontal passage on Fri , timing not certain yet followed by windy conditions along W, SW, S and SE coastal counties and blustery inland with showers or a few longer spells of rain later Fri into Saturday.

Currently not looking too strong but could have blustery showers on Saturday adding to the woes of last minute shopping!

Looks a bit milder Fri ,up around 10C apart from N counties that bit cooler and Sat highs of 8 to 10C , mildest further South , cooler further N.

Initially mild enough and then drawing down colder airs later Christmas eve into Christmas day, a few places could have a frosty start Christmas morning. .

Models have eased off the winds considerably for Saturday, breezy to blustery. Wet day on Fri mainly from the frontal passage which should be gone through early in the day for most of the country, clearing Northern counties early evening. , not too bad away from coastal areas on Saturday but still will have showers moving inland in places, might be a few thunderstorms around the coasts Fri and Sat, more so Sat but might be mainly over the sea. Fairly high rainfall accumulations around coastal fringes especially over high terrain.

Relatively mild getting up to highs of around 11C on Fri and Sat.

ECM / ICON/ UKMO has upped the ante on the latest runs with a very disturbed weather pattern around midweek, models are different on track and intensity atm but all showing deep LP's near us. ECM currently looks very windy or stormy around next Weds and I left it run into Thurs as it is from the same parent system. Charts below will undoubtedly change track and strength a bit but good to note and see how the models develop this.

Tues from early morning looking windy on the coasts and blustery blustery overland some heavy rain also.

Just to note could see another deep system around Fri.

Don't know, At the moment showing the system on Weds to deepen fairly quickly as it transits Ireland. But a long way to know with accuracy what its track and strength will be . For now just to note it could be very windy or stormy around midweek or over a couple of days. the Jet is picking up pace this week , very close or over us and that will have a major bearing also.

It certainly does 17-pdr, tighter more organized depression, models went to disarray for the last few runs but bunching up again, could see rather unsettled weather continue into Thurs and possibly on Fri also but forecasts far from resolved yet. Will be interesting to se the ECM 12C later. ICON a bit more S with the stronger winds, ARPEGEE has a different structure and depth to the system but strong winds nonetheless with different timings, think this model has a bit of catching up to do yet.

Strange how the Hi Res models are all showing some fairly windy conditions high end yellow to maybe Orange level in a couple of counties and have been fairly consistent the last few runs although still a difference in track and strength. GFS showing it windy to a lesser extent but ECM has really gone off the boil in the last few runs and showing Weds not to reach Yellow wind warning on the latest run and the last run was easing off big time too, is there something gone wrong with the ECM or is it just ahead of the rest ??

Longrange forecasts very much favouring a continuation of the current cycle of unsettled mild/cold periods of weather into mid January. Any indications of a settling down of this Atlantic driven regime keep getting pushed into extreme FI territory.

The AO and NAO do however, dip closer to neutral/negativity into the end of week 1 of January

Ps...Merry Christmas and Happy New Year all.