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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours for Winter 2022/2023.

If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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After a very mild and wet Autumn Winter is now upon us and for once we are not starting off winter with an unending conveyer belt of Atlantic driven muck. We are entering a colder than average spell as we begin the 1st day of winter and temperatures will slowly slide away over the coming week. Temperatures will generally stay above freezing both by day and night over the coming week with winds in from the east, but not a cold easterly for week 1 of December.

Thankfully we are now also entering a much dryer spell of weather, a welcome relief after 3 months of deluges. It should be mostly dry until Sunday when showers may begin to move in from the Irish sea and cross the country. These showers are likely to be of rain for the most part as temperatures by Sunday still won't be cold enough for wintry precipitation away from high ground.

Precipitation amounts of the next week look fairly low especially in western and northern areas with Leinster and coastal parts of the south experiencing more in the way of rainfall from showers particularly on Sunday.

Winds over the coming week will primarily be from an easterly direction but not dragging in properly cold air as of yet but it will feel cooler than what we've been used to.

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Robwindstorm

That looks a fairly nasty swipe of squally winds around next Tuesday. There could be warnings for the west and Donegal I would imagine. Could cause problems in the lead up to Christmas after all the calm frosty weather

KingJeremy

Someone mention on another thread a couple of days ago about possibility of snow in midlands Friday night (tonight) or early Saturday morning… any hope at all now for that 🙏🥺🙏 ??

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120003673#Comment_120003673

Not likely, we are now starting to lose the grip of the cold spell with milder air already in western coastal areas. Temperatures tonight nowhere near as cold as previous nights, generally 1 to -3C and tomorrow 4 to 8C so a rapid thaw in the morning.

KingJeremy

Not the answer I was hoping for, but thanks for the reply Gonzo

Gonzo

The cold spell is coming to an end now and temperatures will lift up alot over the next few days. On Tuesday it looks as if we could have some fairly stormy conditions as a deep area of low pressure tracks very close to Ireland with the Atlantic back in charge.

Gusts up to 90km/h possible in places especially across western and north-western counties.

Tuesday looks to be fairly windy with bands of rain pushing across the country and temperatures around 5 or 6C, so much cooler than Sunday and Monday. These strong winds could have a fairly biting wind chill factor to them combined with cold rain.

Niall145

Yep, looks like turning to total crap after this weekend; might head to the Dublin Mountains tomorrow morning to see the snow one last time!

Meteorite58

Just keeping an eye on that deep area of LP skirting by us later Fri into Saturday. Breezy and quite wet frontal passage on Fri , timing not certain yet followed by windy conditions along W, SW, S and SE coastal counties and blustery inland with showers or a few longer spells of rain later Fri into Saturday.

Currently not looking too strong but could have blustery showers on Saturday adding to the woes of last minute shopping!

Looks a bit milder Fri ,up around 10C apart from N counties that bit cooler and Sat highs of 8 to 10C , mildest further South , cooler further N.

Initially mild enough and then drawing down colder airs later Christmas eve into Christmas day, a few places could have a frosty start Christmas morning. .

adocholiday

Icon out on its own with the winds in that low. Showing up to 100kmph gusts on Saturday afternoon for the South East where the rest of the models are around the 60-70 mark. Still only yellow territory regardless but still potential for power outages etc on Christmas Eve, worth keeping an eye on.

Meteorite58

Models have eased off the winds considerably for Saturday, breezy to blustery. Wet day on Fri mainly from the frontal passage which should be gone through early in the day for most of the country, clearing Northern counties early evening. , not too bad away from coastal areas on Saturday but still will have showers moving inland in places, might be a few thunderstorms around the coasts Fri and Sat, more so Sat but might be mainly over the sea. Fairly high rainfall accumulations around coastal fringes especially over high terrain.

Relatively mild getting up to highs of around 11C on Fri and Sat.

Meteorite58

Much colder air from early Sunday for a day or so perhaps, models showing a frontal passage from early morning passing down the country from a NW'ly direction on Christmas day with following cold airmass behind it which should produce some wintry precipitation, more so in the NW, N, might not have much if any sticking on lower elevations for long but could have some white mountain tops and a bit on hills .

Meteorite58

ECM / ICON/ UKMO has upped the ante on the latest runs with a very disturbed weather pattern around midweek, models are different on track and intensity atm but all showing deep LP's near us. ECM currently looks very windy or stormy around next Weds and I left it run into Thurs as it is from the same parent system. Charts below will undoubtedly change track and strength a bit but good to note and see how the models develop this.

Tues from early morning looking windy on the coasts and blustery blustery overland some heavy rain also.

Just to note could see another deep system around Fri.

giveitholly

Do you think their is potential to get a named storm sometime next week?

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120031225#Comment_120031225

Don't know, At the moment showing the system on Weds to deepen fairly quickly as it transits Ireland. But a long way to know with accuracy what its track and strength will be . For now just to note it could be very windy or stormy around midweek or over a couple of days. the Jet is picking up pace this week , very close or over us and that will have a major bearing also.

Meteorite58

European models looking quite similar atm for next Weds but that's not to say that this might take a different track and intensity but for now showing potential for stormy weather next Weds and possibly into Thurs. GFS not showing it as strong at this stage, GEM showing something strong too.

[Deleted User]

Some of the ensembles for Wednesday. I wouldn’t fancy number 9 happening. Potentially severe storm in prospect with this scenario. 15 & 13 keep the system a bit further away.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120032548#Comment_120032548

Also 23 brings a fairly strong LP over Ireland. 28 has a stronger low but is further away.

[Deleted User]

ECM & GFS for Wednesday. Not looking like a big event at this stage.

[Deleted User]

6Z ECM for Wednesday evening. Fairly tight gradient over Ireland.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120033263#Comment_120033263

It certainly does 17-pdr, tighter more organized depression, models went to disarray for the last few runs but bunching up again, could see rather unsettled weather continue into Thurs and possibly on Fri also but forecasts far from resolved yet. Will be interesting to se the ECM 12C later. ICON a bit more S with the stronger winds, ARPEGEE has a different structure and depth to the system but strong winds nonetheless with different timings, think this model has a bit of catching up to do yet.

BestWestern

Looks like my Rosslare -> Cherbourg on the 30th is going to be rough!

Meteorite58

Strange how the Hi Res models are all showing some fairly windy conditions high end yellow to maybe Orange level in a couple of counties and have been fairly consistent the last few runs although still a difference in track and strength. GFS showing it windy to a lesser extent but ECM has really gone off the boil in the last few runs and showing Weds not to reach Yellow wind warning on the latest run and the last run was easing off big time too, is there something gone wrong with the ECM or is it just ahead of the rest ??

Meteorite58

It's interesting to see the models on the latest runs now come more in line with the ECM, for tomorrow, far less windy then even a couple of days ago, lots of windy wet spells over the coming days , as yet on balance probably nothing above yellow warning if you take the ECM as the lead.

Chris_5339762

Standard grotty winter weather by the looks of it!

[Deleted User]

Latest GFS suggesting a windy New Years Day.

WolfeEire

Longrange forecasts very much favouring a continuation of the current cycle of unsettled mild/cold periods of weather into mid January. Any indications of a settling down of this Atlantic driven regime keep getting pushed into extreme FI territory.

The AO and NAO do however, dip closer to neutral/negativity into the end of week 1 of January

Ps...Merry Christmas and Happy New Year all.

Gonzo

Yeah in general not much change over the next 2 weeks with a very mild trend for first half of January, maybe things might settle down and turn a bit cooler for the second half of January but for the forseeable future everything remains Atlantic dominated with the jetstream like a hose pipe stretching the full way around the northern hemisphere with very little amplification.

Neddyusa

Eh lads, there's signals for fairly widespread snow within 100 hours, and you're in here going on about mild mid-Januaries?!

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120040793#Comment_120040793

Charts?

Rebelbrowser

Likewise, don't see that snow risk but you might clarify when you mean. Delighted to be proved wrong! I do some support on ICON for snow in Norn Iron on New Year's day but not supported by other models Iooked at. Where are you based Neddy? If that direction I get you might be interested, for South coasters like me there's nothing of interest on the horizon I think.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120040793#Comment_120040793

All I can see is a dusting really showing for Monday on ECM and GFS. GEM showing a more significant fall in the border area and the North but overall not really much worth talking about I'd say.