Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2022/2023 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours for Winter 2022/2023.

If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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After a very mild and wet Autumn Winter is now upon us and for once we are not starting off winter with an unending conveyer belt of Atlantic driven muck. We are entering a colder than average spell as we begin the 1st day of winter and temperatures will slowly slide away over the coming week. Temperatures will generally stay above freezing both by day and night over the coming week with winds in from the east, but not a cold easterly for week 1 of December.

Thankfully we are now also entering a much dryer spell of weather, a welcome relief after 3 months of deluges. It should be mostly dry until Sunday when showers may begin to move in from the Irish sea and cross the country. These showers are likely to be of rain for the most part as temperatures by Sunday still won't be cold enough for wintry precipitation away from high ground.

Precipitation amounts of the next week look fairly low especially in western and northern areas with Leinster and coastal parts of the south experiencing more in the way of rainfall from showers particularly on Sunday.

Winds over the coming week will primarily be from an easterly direction but not dragging in properly cold air as of yet but it will feel cooler than what we've been used to.

BLIZZARD7

One could not wish for a much better +96 hr chart in the first week of December. At DAY 4 we have a highly amplified pattern. We have a Polar vortex in tatters, a very blocked Atlantic, a Greenland high, and a trough dropping down through Scandinavia.

GFS

UKMO -

ECM -

Meteorite58

The Fax showing a weak front later Tues or into Weds but behind it will be watching for troughs moving down in the colder Northerly airflow. Preliminary projection from the ECM showing mixed wintry precipitation later Weds through the early hours of Thursday with a possible light dusting of lying snow Thurs morning in places, more so the Northern half of the country, could be the first real icy morning in places, struggling to get up over 0C in places by midday from tonights charts.

Meteorite58

Very cold charts leading into Thurs from the GFS 18Z

WolfeEire

528 dam line on Thursday across much of Ireland with plenty of instability means snowfall is likely.

Harmonie model has a narrow band of wintry (ish) precipitation on Thursday pushing South through the Midlands and East towards the end of the 12Z run.

Borderline DPs. So a little bit of the white stuff might be possible.

Gonzo

ECM 12z brings that low right into Ireland and the mild air with it from the 13th.

Gonzo

The ECM 12z is not surprising, we could see from the models this morning that there has been a significant increase in a milder outcome from the 13th. This cold spell is a largely snowless affair so if the ECM is correct, a bit of a reset wouldn't do any harm. Hopefully a reload before New Year's and a more unstable and snowy cold spell next time (if this is correct). A fair chance that we will get another cold spell later.

Neddyusa

I think those posts might be for the post 120hr thread Gonzo?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119965158#Comment_119965158

Unfortunately I posted in the wrong one by mistake! However at this point I think everything to do with the cold spell up to next Monday would be fine in here at this point.

squarecircles

My god, you're unbelievable, no matter what you get, you're not satisfied, you were initially looking for cold weather, but now that's not good enough and you want snow too, the cold spell hasn't even started and you're already talking about hoping to get another cold spell later thats more pleasing , I swear you'd eventually start complaining about the consistency of the snow if there was 20 foot drift outside your house.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119964733#Comment_119964733

Fair bit of a downgrade on this now. 6Z Harmonie run has only small pockets of precipitation moving south.

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119964841#Comment_119964841

Hey Gonzo, how are you coming to that conclusion? The op has us in - 8 uppers by the end of next week and we stay mainly in - 4 uppers before that. I'm just looking at the op so has it gone the mild route in the ensembles?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119969479#Comment_119969479

The run I was referring to was about 2 days ago. Alot has changed since.

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119969491#Comment_119969491

Haha forgot every thread is not buzzing and never looked at when you'd actually posted it!!

almostthere12

Both the ECM and GFS are showing that low heading south early next week but both have some precipitation being sent into the south of the country especially on Tuesday, looks like one to watch if I am reading this correctly?

Gonzo

Icon looking good for Tuesday, hopefully if this verifies we see a bit more in the way of inland movement on those snow showers.

6Z Harmonie hinting at some wintry stuff in the North-East tomorrow afternoon. Worth keeping an eye on.

UKMO HD not showing anything for the same time however.

Kermit.de.frog

Tuesday could be entertaining in the east to say the least

SleetAndSnow

Arpege showing that too it seems. All models though showing that sliver of cork city coast again being white, is this a model thing or just a warm sector because every time snow shows up on charts this happens haha. Coastal winds(going all the way to the city it seems)

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119976417#Comment_119976417

They did the same in 2018 as you say and yet the nearer you were to the coast the more snow you saw. Just some built in computer assumption that overdoes warming influence of the sea I reckon

JanuarySnowstor

Haven't time to analyse charts at the moment other than to say this cold spell is quickly turning into a memorable one. Minus 2c here at 6pm is dare I say it 2010 territory with let's face it no end in sight.

Tuesday and Wednesday looking excellent for Corks snow hopes!

SleetAndSnow

Bit of snow in the south based on this GFS chart at +84

WolfeEire

The models are all over the place regarding the track and intensity of next weekend's Atlantic low. The op runs all indicate less cold weather from Sunday the 18th but a look at the ensembles is needed. It does look that with the Greenland block in place and a Scandi high forming that the outcome is far from certain.

WolfeEire

Re: next weekend and into the following week.

Without the benefit of seeing the ensembles yet, there is another shift in the ECM op run to heights extending from between Iceland and Greenland southeast towards Ireland. The result is that the Atlantic doesn't break through as quickly as it was showing on the ECM up to yesterday morning and continues to show on the GFS. In this ECM run, the northeast of Ulster manages to hold on to the cold uppers

JanuarySnowstor

In reality the ground will be frozen solid by next weekend so warm uppers even if they do encroach will do little to the feel of the weather. Remaining bitter at least up to Sunday on that ECM

WolfeEire

The ECM op a milder run than the mean. Certainly doesn't look like warming up as significantly as indicated previously after next weekend.

Neddyusa

Wrong thread Wolf

WolfeEire

Thanks @Neddyusa

Just spotted that. Apologies Mods.

SleetAndSnow

GFS 18z is.... Something

☃️☃️☃️

One two many drinks I think!

Could it be so wrong T +72 hours?!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Still there on the 0z