Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2022/2023 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

Strange how the Hi Res models are all showing some fairly windy conditions high end yellow to maybe Orange level in a couple of counties and have been fairly consistent the last few runs although still a difference in track and strength. GFS showing it windy to a lesser extent but ECM has really gone off the boil in the last few runs and showing Weds not to reach Yellow wind warning on the latest run and the last run was easing off big time too, is there something gone wrong with the ECM or is it just ahead of the rest ??

Meteorite58

It's interesting to see the models on the latest runs now come more in line with the ECM, for tomorrow, far less windy then even a couple of days ago, lots of windy wet spells over the coming days , as yet on balance probably nothing above yellow warning if you take the ECM as the lead.

Chris_5339762

Standard grotty winter weather by the looks of it!

Latest GFS suggesting a windy New Years Day.

WolfeEire

Longrange forecasts very much favouring a continuation of the current cycle of unsettled mild/cold periods of weather into mid January. Any indications of a settling down of this Atlantic driven regime keep getting pushed into extreme FI territory.

The AO and NAO do however, dip closer to neutral/negativity into the end of week 1 of January

Ps...Merry Christmas and Happy New Year all.

Gonzo

Yeah in general not much change over the next 2 weeks with a very mild trend for first half of January, maybe things might settle down and turn a bit cooler for the second half of January but for the forseeable future everything remains Atlantic dominated with the jetstream like a hose pipe stretching the full way around the northern hemisphere with very little amplification.

Neddyusa

Eh lads, there's signals for fairly widespread snow within 100 hours, and you're in here going on about mild mid-Januaries?!

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120040793#Comment_120040793

Charts?

Rebelbrowser

Likewise, don't see that snow risk but you might clarify when you mean. Delighted to be proved wrong! I do some support on ICON for snow in Norn Iron on New Year's day but not supported by other models Iooked at. Where are you based Neddy? If that direction I get you might be interested, for South coasters like me there's nothing of interest on the horizon I think.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120040793#Comment_120040793

All I can see is a dusting really showing for Monday on ECM and GFS. GEM showing a more significant fall in the border area and the North but overall not really much worth talking about I'd say.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120040793#Comment_120040793

Would have said a marginal/short lived event for mostly northern counties?

Either way definitely not a pattern to excited over.

WolfeEire

There is little to no snow risk for the next 120 hours away from hills and mountains in Ulster. For as long as that Euro high remains in place, we will see a continuation of the current weather regime.

nacho libre

Our best chance based on current guidance it seems is some brief pm shots for the next 14 days. The MJO looks like it's not going to be good enough to lead to a high latitude block. So we are probably relying on a SSW for another notable cold period. Any settled weather probably won't last too long in this current pattern, unfortunately.

esposito

Not writing off the rest of winter but let’s face it, we’ve been here before hoping for a pattern change and it just does not come. But who knows we may be surprised come end of January.

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120041420#Comment_120041420

The change will prob come after St Patrick's day and into April

Gonzo

At the moment we are definitely locked into a largely mild and highly zonal pattern for the next 10 to 14 days at the very least. So expect things to alternate between blowtorch south-westerlies and cool Atlantic conditions from the north-west. All we can do now is play the waiting game for a SSW, one may happen and if it does happen there is no guarantee it will in our favour or have any sort of affects. On the plus side we still have a fair deal of time left to go with this winter but if we're still sitting here waiting for a pattern change by the 14th of February then it's time to maybe close the curtains. Fingers crossed we see some serious signs of a pattern change to cold develop through the course of January.

Meteorite58

Well the ECM has been showing some snow potential especially through Sunday as a slack area of LP moves up through the country into a much cooler airmass then of late, the 528dam line could be down over Ireland. The frontal boundary of the LP could produce a mix of wintry precipitation including freezing rain, sleet and snow. Mid levels not that cold according to the ECM, the front would be coming up against -3 to -5C 850hPa temps but with it being an area of LP this might be cold enough to bring down the snow ( albeit wet snow perhaps ) to hills or even lower levels and the timing being shown at present would be conducive to lying snow overnight into the Monday morning. Very conscious this is over 3 days away and as we have seen of late the models have been struggling to give anything accurate more than a couple of days away. But hey this is a weather forum and worth keeping an eye on it to see if we get a one day wonder.

Going into Sunday there could be a fairly widespread frost with low day time temperatures followed by another frosty night which would help stick.

The GFS showing the LP to cross Southern counties and pull away to the SE, some colder 850 hPa temps but not expecting much from it on the present run.

A bit of interest anyway in these lean times for weather observing 😀.

Meteorite58

Borderline and marginal parameters for snow but sometimes produces the biggest surprises.

😁😁

Neddyusa

Thanks Meteorite for some analysis that actually matches the thread title time frame!

The rest of ye totally missed the point that your FI discussion belongs in the FI thread.

2009 and 2010 were the only times in my life where significant snow was accurately forecast more than 48 hours out.

And I've seen a fair few snowfalls! So to echo Meteorite, while the weekend does look even more marginal now than it did this morning, there is still time for that to change.

.Donegal.

GFS just rolling out and big upgrade on this run for a snow event within 48 hours for the NW&N.Previous run

Current below

Another front has snow on its northern edge bringing snow more widely to Connacht

Meteorite58

That's some heavy rain to come in overnight into early tomorrow, localized flooding with that amount. Most of the rain will fall in the counties highlighted for warnings in around 13hrs. Plenty of rain to follow behind it into Sat.

ECM showing not far off Orange rainfall warning status in parts of Clare and Galway.

----------------------------------------------------------

Met Eireann

Rain

Amounts can be up to double on

windward upper slopes &

impacts vary depending on for

example soil moisture deficits.

Orange Status

30mm – 50mm in 6 hrs or less

40mm – 60mm in 12 hrs or less

50mm – 80mm in 24 hrs

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Meteorite58

Getting quite windy in coastal areas and very blustery overland tonight into tomorrow, gusting 80 t 85km/h approx. overland, that will test a few outside decorations.

Looks quite gusty tomorrow afternoon into the early evening as winds sweep across the country in the next weather system, again gusting 80 tp 85 km/h approx.

Meteorite58

Has to be stressed that the models keep chopping and changing but that is a tasty set of charts from the GFS 12Z for later Saturday into Sunday as LP's and their fronts come up against cold air. Mind you it would probably be wet snow at best and doesn't look like lasting long on lower ground on these charts but enough to cause a nuisance driving especially on higher terrain. Mountains and hills could keep the snow lying into Monday. Will see what the ECM shows later, did back off a bit on the earlier runs, very narrow margins with timing and positions of the LP's and the colder air.

Donegal Ken

Been watching this the last few days. We could get some upgrades even inside 24 hours out. Would be nice to get some sort of snow event. Some of the bigger snowfalls show up at short notice.

Meteorite58

Big difference between the Hi Res WRF and the ECM Swiss, WRF all out frontal snow with meagre 850 hPa Temps but pressure down to 987hPa, ECM poor wet bulb temperatures except the furthest N for a time so little chance of snow apart from higher ground, widespread frost or sharp frost Sun night.

The other models dont give much of a chance of snow later Sat or Sun going by the mid level temperatures.

Maybe mostly a sleety affair with snow on higher ground perhaps. Roads might be tricky Monday morning due to the wet day on Sunday followed by freezing temperatures in places.

Maybe a bit blustery /windy along the S, SE and E later Sat into early Sun depending on track of the low and if it gets a bit deeper but it doesn't look like producing anything too strong at this stage.

Met Eireann only mentioning sleet at this stage.

nacho libre

Looks like Met Éireann was right about this. Cold and wet with sleet on high ground today, possibly some snow on high ground by tomorrow evening.

Meteorite58

Yellow status warning for rainfall over Kerry from Met Eireann, latest ECM 06Z suggests West Cork would fit the same Criteria. Highlights the difficulty of giving the whole county a Yellow warning as a large part of Cork would be well under warning level. Looks like Mountain areas getting the highest rainfall especially on the windward side .

Meteorite58

Approaching deep area of LP coming into the weekend, its occluded front passing over the country on Fri, breezy to blustery overland , windy along the coasts followed by a windy Saturday overland . Relatively slow moving system so a long spell of winds and could get fairly stiff mean wind speeds throughout the day across the country and into Sunday morning for the Northern half of the country. Could see winds gusting 70 - 80 km/h overland , 80 tp 90 km/h along the Atlantic coasts and up to 100km/h or so along the exposed headlands.

Cold upper pool aiding instability and tons of shear available. Convective weather giving isolated thunderstorms possible ,most active over water but will be keeping an eye on storm potential moving inland from the W, SW, S. Should be reports of hail given the very cold uppers.

A fair bit cooler Sat into Sunday after the current relative mild spell. Could get some wintry showers over mountain's.

Very high seas from the very large area of deep LP, Full moon also Saturday so big tides, could make for spectacular photography from a safe place of course.

Latest GFS suggesting a windy day next Wednesday.

Meteorite58

I see Met Eireann have Yellow status rainfall warnings up for tomorrow....

Status Yellow - Rain warning for Munster and Galway

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Spells of rain overnight and on Tuesday will be heavy at times leading to spot flooding.

Valid: 03:00 Tuesday 10/01/2023 to 15:00 Tuesday 10/01/2023

Issued: 09:28 Monday 09/01/2023

Meteorite58

After a brief lull overland tonight it gest breezy to blustery again in the early hours of Tues morning with the frontal passage, bit lighter overland during the day while staying fresh on the coasts and getting windy again early Weds morning especially around coastal counties. Late Weds into early Thurs morning the models picking up possibly strong winds running quickly across the southern half of the country, gone in a few hours but potentially very blustery

Meteorite58

ECM showing it stronger again the last two runs for during Weds night Thurs morning across the Southern half of the country and especially Clare and Kerry, been a while since we have seen wind strengths like that even though they still fit into the Yellow status warning level but just about. Quick moving system. Looks like a short wave coming off the main front from the parent low . The Jet aiding the quick transit.

Fairly blustery during Weds at times also.

The strong winds will follow the clearing front which in itself will produce a lot of rainfall. Rough spell of weather.

Meteorite58

Another deep area of LP passing over the country from the W on Thursday morning spreading to all areas quickly, hot on the heels of the one clearing the SE on Thurs morning, with its center just along Northern coasts bringing the strongest winds sweeping over Ireland, possibly gusting 100 to 110km/h along coastal areas ( could see higher on the most exposed headlands perhaps ), 80 to 90km/h in Atlantic coastal counties, 70 to 80 km/h widely over most of Ireland . Very windy along coastal areas and windy overland with some strong gusts to be expected. Heaviest rain along Northern counties it would seem. Could be quite windy in the E Thursday night and only slowly abating towards Friday morning.

More weather queuing up after that, in the early hours of Sat morning a vigorous frontal system with heavy rain sweeping over the country, blustery to breezy to follow overland and windy on coasts and another system early Sunday morning.

Meteorite58

Getting much colder from Saturday with a pronounced wind chill. Wintry precipitation with snow possible on higher ground . Looks quite convective Saturday with heavy hail showers and isolated thunderstorms especially along Atlantic coastal counties .

Brief incursion of minus 8 uppers over the Northern part of the island at +96 hours.

There's a weakish ridge of high pressure moving in at roughly the same time though, so how much precipitation would occur is anyone's guess.

pauldry

Met Eireann predicting power outages in the next couple of days so gusts over 100kph likely in the West and Northwest and tonight in the Southwest

Robwindstorm

It's not exactly an explosive low pressure dropping from 980 to 975 but the gradient is quite tight across the country, particular the northern half. I've seen storms named for less . I think this could be a bit like storm Ali a couple of years ago.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z cooler again I would think, winds increasingly sourced from a Northern direction,528dam line pushed well South of Ireland by Sunday and the 510dam line relatively close from where a lot of the cold air is flowing from and towards us. Gone is the severe depression that had been showing up yesterday for around Tues but there are some disturbances in the air flow that will bring strong winds and blustery to parts at times and look to carry various fronts and occluded fronts and troughs in over us at times and plenty of showers in off the sea with some travelling inland ,convective in nature with hail and thunderstorms at times also and a mixture of wintry showers and some more prolonged spells of wintry precipitation possible . Plenty of bright sunny spells also especially more East but all areas should get some sunny spells. Lots of snow covered mountains I would think and hill tops and there looks to be some chance of snow at lower levels too but as ever will need to watch the charts closely for locations and to how much will fall. Freezing levels set to lower as we move through the weekend into the early days of next week.

By Sunday temps struggling to get above around 5C away from coasts followed by widespread frosts with icy conditions, Monday low single digits of just a few degrees and again widespread frosts , possibly quite sharp in the Northern half of the country and again Tues very cold by day of only a few degrees away from coastal areas again followed by another sharp frost ( for context may be similar on Weds up to Thurs morning or so ).

WolfeEire

Looking at next Tuesday and the gefs ensembles mean is a good bit colder in the GFS 18z compared to 12z. The op run on the milder side, albeit far from mild as it is. No downgrades on conditions conducive for snowfall to occur. It remains a very unstable airflow so the extent and coverage of precip is very hard to gauge 96-120 hours out. Noticeably the low feature has faded out somewhat but there are plenty of heavy, frequent showers pushing down on Tuesday.

WolfeEire

The GFS ensembles for 18z (top) compared to the 0z run (bottom)

WolfeEire

The JMA showing a low system on Tuesday. South Connacht and Munster largely affected.

igCorcaigh

...

Artane2002

The UKV has lost it

WolfeEire

By Sunday morn, it looks like the Mournes., Dublin/Wicklow mountains and a few other hills and mountains will have a covering. Sadly not a regular site as it once was in Januarys past, and this January also has been so mild up to now.

pauldry

BBC weather had snow for Donegal and some showers of snow for the rest of Northwest. Also a band of snow on Sunday in Britain. Some of this could impact the South and East on Sunday evening. Details very uncertain he said on forecast. Still interesting nonetheless.

Gizit

Looking at short range models this morning and a right mixed bag showing. UKV quite bullish on scattered showers in the west others show mostly rain. At least at the moment it is dry with blue sky which will hopefully give some local roads a chance to dry out.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120104690#Comment_120104690

Those are ground temperatures, i.e. grass frost temperatures.

Gonzo

A dry sunny day at last. Looks mostly dry till next Wednesday/Thursday away from Donegal we really need this. Make the most of it, we will be back to a mild and wet pattern by Thursday.

A real east/west split over the next week with regards to rainfall. Western areas still look fairly wet but much dryer to the east with not much measurable rainfall in the Dublin area over the following 7 days.

highdef

Surely you mean most of Ulster and Connaught and some Western parts of Leinster and Munster? That's just going by current weather conditions.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120106710#Comment_120106710

Most of the rainfall in the linked chart does not occur until next Wednesday/Thursday and into Friday, this would be the period where we are most likely to switch back to properly mild and unsettled.