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Would renewables ever provide Dublin's energy

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Wind is not actually cheap, and China adding more 'capacity' than the rest of the world is misleading. Both of these are because of that tiny detail turbine shaggers always ignore and hope no one notices - capacity factor. China's average CF is terrible - 14.4% So for every headline grabbing GW they add, it's actually only 144 MW of actual power generated, which is why China is mostly building reliable high capacity factor nuclear and coal.

    Renewables proponents always like to quote LCOE - which is a measure originally used for more reliable base load generation before renewables came along. LCOE applied to renewables is nothing short of dishonesty. The BBC are mad for this and are amongst the worst offenders.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,874 ✭✭✭garo


    Someone seems to really dislike renewables here. "turbine shaggers", "usual idealistic Greenie nonsense" etc.


    Also saying that "LCOE applied to renewables is nothing short of dishonesty" is not true. The capacity factor is included when calculating LCOE.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    When I say LCOE doesn't include capacity factor and is dishonest, I mean it doesn't factor the additional cost implications that arise from large differences in capacity factor between different sources, as is mentioned here:

    Due to the variability of renewables, backup thermal power and/or storage are often needed. This is an additional cost not accounted for in the LCOE of solar or wind. Additionally, in markets with dynamic pricing models, LCOE can obscure competition based on time of day.

    If you want to choose between a nuclear power plant with a capacity factor of 100% that can service the entire grid demand and an energy system based on offshore wind farms that have a capacity factor of 50% and whose capacity is also 100% of grid demand, LCOE doesn't get even close to telling you the difference in cost between the two options, because it completely ignores and fails to cost the 50% of the time the offshore wind is not meeting demand and what it would cost you to fill that gaping hole. If you just look at LCOE, the windfarm option will look cheap and the nuclear will look expensive.

    To match the nuclear option using offshore wind, you have to install 250% of Grid demand in terms of capacity, and you then have to add in the cost of an energy storage system big enough to handle at least a 6 week lul in the wind, in Irelands case. LCOE doesn't take that 250% capacity into account, nor the cost of the storage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,707 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Nuclear in Ireland? You have got to be joking me. A €200 million children's hospital is already costing €2,000 million and still going up and taking years longer than it was supposed to.

    But yeah you are right about having to install at least 200-300% of grid demand in wind. Most of the time we will produce more than we need and we shall send our overproduction via interconnectors to other countries. Or even produce hydrogen from it. And store it in batteries like the EVs that we all soon will own (another "myth" you don't believe in LOL)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Maybe Ireland should cop onto itself and fix things. Take a look at the new Perth childrens hospital, and weep. After that, maybe try for a can do attitude instead of can't do.

    The ESB has an uncosted plan, there's a video. Their estimate identifies a need for storage equivalent to 10,000 Turlough hills. EV batteries might cost a bit too much.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,707 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    @cnocbui - "EV batteries might cost a bit too much."


    EV batteries are free as we will all have them anyway ;-)

    For the craic, I set up a V2H system with my '96 electric conversion BMW. It cost me not a cent in parts. I hook the high voltage battery directly up to my solar PV inverter, which then thinks the sun is shining and it loads up my house with over 2kW of power. This is very useful when your day rate is 7.9c/kWh incl. VAT and your night rate is about 28c


    I already have a 20kWh home power wall, so I don't normally go over that, but on a very bad day a few weeks ago, I setup and used above system with the BMW and it saved me from using about 10kWh of day rate electricity. The BMW battery then filled itself for free during the next day from excess solar PV. Rinse and repeat.

    With my next batch of panels going up shortly, my modest semi-detached house in a Dublin suburb will produce 4-5 times as much as a similar house in this country uses in electricity for the year. I will produce enough to power my house, power all my electric cars, and power a significant part of my hot water heating and home heating.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,343 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    I know that this is a hobby for you, so this question might not be relevant, but what's your payback period on that setup?




  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Not a bloody hope, there’s going to be absolutely nothing that can do what fossil fuels can do right now.

    And don’t see it changing in my lifetime.

    Cycling, buses will have a big role to play no doubt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,707 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    My payback period is generally negative or very close to zero. As in I tend to buy parts so cheaply that I could sell them at any time for more than I paid for them. And I have done this repeatedly many times in the past. So that only leaves labour really. While I do almost everything myself or with (electrician) friends, I once paid a roofer €350 and I once paid an electrician €150 for doing jobs on my PV installs.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,343 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    That's fantastic.

    I'm really impressed by the quantity of panels going up around me. Seems every second person is doing their sums and calculating their payback period.

    I'm waiting for my buddy to do his panel course and get registered with SEAI.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,707 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Yes people are finally seeing the light and putting up PV panels in Ireland. Better late than never. Only problem now is that panels and inverters are more expensive than they were a few years ago and also hard to get. Installation costs and wait times are even worse. Demand is now bigger than supply.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,565 ✭✭✭bullit_dodger



    I'd hope your wrong on that - but part of me knows your right of course. One thing in our favor is that no indigenous construction companies have any experience of building nuclear power plants in Ireland. So if the state was to tender out the business, it'll be the French or Japanese firms doing the bidding I suspect. Couple that to Small modular reactors, I think there's hope that we wouldn't see another Children's hospital.

    Still though, with the interconnectors in construction, or in planning - I like the idea of Ireland being an exporter of leccie. Bout time we got paid for our weather :-)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,255 ✭✭✭Ubbquittious


    Tis true.

    If someone invents rain panels we'll be pure laafing altogether !



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,707 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    We would this evening alright 😂


    It's only the second time my 20kWh battery ran out (a few hours ago) before night rate kicks in, so I had to switch on the V2H



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,874 ✭✭✭garo


    That's a much more accurate desription of the challenge. Thanks for taking the time to describe it. A number of organisations are now calculating LCOE for solar/wind + storage with different amounts of storage provided ranging from 30 mins to 8 hours. The intermittent nature and non-inertial generation characterstics of solar and wind are a clear challenge. But I believe that these challenges can be addressed through technology in a manner that is far cheaper and quicker than new nuclear plants - which often take 8-10 years to build. And whatever you say, a new nuclear plant in Ireland will be 3-5x more expensive than Barakkah for the same MW capacity. You may not like it but it's a fact and you have to take it intop account when doing price comparisons and not just wish it away.

    Re technology to cope with intermittent power - Unkel hinted at V2H and V2G. There is absolutely no reason why using current technology we cannot design systems that will use a parked EV as a reservoir of energy. When renewables produce excess power you charge your car for free. When it's calm or the sun has set, your car gives back the energy and you get a small payment. The car owner sets the min and max amount of charge of the car so they aren't caught short. If the number of connected EVs is more than required to soak up the excess, you use some randomisation to chose the lucky victims. All perfectly doable. It just requires political will.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 19,192 Mod ✭✭✭✭slave1


    Just like the Egyptians got the Chinese to build their dams we’d get the French to (competently and within Budget) build our Nuclear plant, about a bucket or two of waste a year



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,707 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    No need. The French can build and keep their own nuclear plants. We shall just exchange electrical units with them via interconnectors if and when either of us have over demand or over supply

    And on a micro level, here's my trusty old 1996 BMW served its purpose having fully powered my home for over 3 hours this evening. It is now waiting for the sun predicted for tomorrow morning so it will fully charge itself again. Did I mention it will do that for free? From the sun? With zero emissions? I hope that dinosaur aussie @cnocbui doesn't read this as it would no doubt frustrate him no end 😂



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