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Would renewables ever provide Dublin's energy

2

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,532 ✭✭✭ Ubbquittious


    Dublin isnt the most blessed with sources of renewable energy unless you want to include the hot air from Leinster house.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,766 ✭✭✭ bullit_dodger


    True - but the Kish bank in Dublin bay is a good place. Theres about 5-6 wind turbines further south for 10-15 years which have done pretty well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,149 ✭✭✭✭ josip


    At the moment, the total capacity of the River Liffey generation is 38MW

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poulaphouca_Reservoir

    If Ireland's peak demand is 5-6GW, then it's not unreasonable to estimate Dublin's share of that to be 2 GW.

    Turlough Hill has a hydraulic head of 550m, Poulaphouca has 50m.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,109 ✭✭✭ 323


    Agree. But Hiwind Scotland was done with turbines of only 6MW, installation and subsea infrastructure costs for the new generation of 14MW turbines coming to market will not change by much for projects in the North Sea.

    South, West & North coast of Ireland is a totally different ball game. While capacity factor off the Irish coast will be better when eventually completed.

    Cost will be astronomical due to weather conditions making for a very challenging and short installation season. Calm days like this are few and far between off the Irish coast.

    https://www.saipem.com/sites/default/files/2019-03/project-hywind-superlatives-1.jpg

    “Follow the trend lines, not the headlines,”



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,929 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    The Nowegians are currently building Hywind Tampen, with a brag of a 40% reduction in cost vs Hywind, but it's still costing about €10.5 Billion per GW factoring capacity factor. https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffnt&q=norway+hywind+platforms&ia=web

    High wind locations are unlikely to be ideal for the largest turbines available, quite the reverse.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,109 ✭✭✭ 323


    Have no doubt the noggies will achieve their 40% reduction in cost on Tampen v Hiwind, relatively shallow water, tieing directly into existing infield infrastructure, no substation, export connection, landfall, convertor stations/ grid connection etc.

    Be interesting to see how things develop in Ireland.

    “Follow the trend lines, not the headlines,”



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,151 ✭✭✭ celtic_oz


    Ireland has some the greatest wind resources on the planet, along with access to some of the biggest richest populations to sell green energy to!

    Interconnectors and wind off the west cost and lots of it .. 10 times what we consume

    Finance over 100 years with European central bank loans

    Even the Germans look over in envy and want a slice : https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/germany-signals-interest-in-ireland-s-wind-energy-infrastructure-1.4813527







  • Registered Users Posts: 9,557 ✭✭✭ YFlyer




  • Registered Users Posts: 26,560 ✭✭✭✭ Wanderer78


    off shore wind all the way, off all coasts, on shore storage in the form of batteries and hydrogen, and intercontinental interconnects, job done!



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,557 ✭✭✭ YFlyer




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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,560 ✭✭✭✭ Wanderer78


    i suspect its too low for modern needs, an amazing feet of engineering for its time, and the fact the country was beyond broke at the time of construction, but we ve moved on



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,557 ✭✭✭ YFlyer


    Just seen potential is 292 MW.

    There hasn't been anything in relation to Silvermines the past few years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,929 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    Except it costs 4 times as much as alternatives in the long term. Job done only applies if you have an infinite supply of free money.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,929 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    Here is a screen grab from an ESB video on what Ireland needs to reach zero using renewables. The little red dot is Turlough hill and the handfull of abatteries around the place. The blue square is how much energy srorage would be needed, as the audio says..'equivalent to about 10,000 Turlough hills'.

    The ESB plans are insane, both on a technical level, and thrice that on a cost basis.


    Post edited by cnocbui on


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭ CalamariFritti


    Na, he said they're dabbling a bit into hydrogen production as storage. But its very inefficient and you effectively lose 90% of the energy.

    Doesn't sound like the answer to the problem just yet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,557 ✭✭✭ YFlyer


    Looking at https://smartgriddashboard.com/#roi

    Republic of Ireland wind generated electricity has been decreasing since 6 am while up in the North it is increasing since 6 am.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,557 ✭✭✭ YFlyer


    Wasn't Silvermines going to be similar to Turlough Hill with two water reservoirs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,151 ✭✭✭ celtic_oz


    Small city in China 2.5 million people





  • Registered Users Posts: 17,929 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    The usual idealistic Greenie nonsense. Wind power is getting so cheap it will end up being free - no it won't. Investors build wind farms and have contracts ensuring they get paid. Free isn't in their vocabulary. You want to know when the energy actually is free? It's when the wind isn't blowing, so you don't have to pay.

    China has a wind capacity factor of a paltry 14.4%, which is why they are currently building 22 nuclear power plants and plans for a total of 140, and why they have plans to build 258 coal fired power plants.

    They wouldn't be doing this if they thought they could get free energy from turbines.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 60,526 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    China added more wind to the grid last year than the rest of the world did combined in the last 5 years. They make everything for everybody in the whole world, that's why they have a sheer insatiable need for more power. From anything they can build. Hydro, PV, wind, indeed nuclear and even new coal plants. They are increasing their percentage of renewables substantially every year though

    And wind is by far the cheapest form of electricity production and has been for several years

    11PM: 15kW o'clock!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,929 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    Wind is not actually cheap, and China adding more 'capacity' than the rest of the world is misleading. Both of these are because of that tiny detail turbine shaggers always ignore and hope no one notices - capacity factor. China's average CF is terrible - 14.4% So for every headline grabbing GW they add, it's actually only 144 MW of actual power generated, which is why China is mostly building reliable high capacity factor nuclear and coal.

    Renewables proponents always like to quote LCOE - which is a measure originally used for more reliable base load generation before renewables came along. LCOE applied to renewables is nothing short of dishonesty. The BBC are mad for this and are amongst the worst offenders.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,848 ✭✭✭ garo


    Someone seems to really dislike renewables here. "turbine shaggers", "usual idealistic Greenie nonsense" etc.


    Also saying that "LCOE applied to renewables is nothing short of dishonesty" is not true. The capacity factor is included when calculating LCOE.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,929 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    When I say LCOE doesn't include capacity factor and is dishonest, I mean it doesn't factor the additional cost implications that arise from large differences in capacity factor between different sources, as is mentioned here:

    Due to the variability of renewables, backup thermal power and/or storage are often needed. This is an additional cost not accounted for in the LCOE of solar or wind. Additionally, in markets with dynamic pricing models, LCOE can obscure competition based on time of day.

    If you want to choose between a nuclear power plant with a capacity factor of 100% that can service the entire grid demand and an energy system based on offshore wind farms that have a capacity factor of 50% and whose capacity is also 100% of grid demand, LCOE doesn't get even close to telling you the difference in cost between the two options, because it completely ignores and fails to cost the 50% of the time the offshore wind is not meeting demand and what it would cost you to fill that gaping hole. If you just look at LCOE, the windfarm option will look cheap and the nuclear will look expensive.

    To match the nuclear option using offshore wind, you have to install 250% of Grid demand in terms of capacity, and you then have to add in the cost of an energy storage system big enough to handle at least a 6 week lul in the wind, in Irelands case. LCOE doesn't take that 250% capacity into account, nor the cost of the storage.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 60,526 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    Nuclear in Ireland? You have got to be joking me. A €200 million children's hospital is already costing €2,000 million and still going up and taking years longer than it was supposed to.

    But yeah you are right about having to install at least 200-300% of grid demand in wind. Most of the time we will produce more than we need and we shall send our overproduction via interconnectors to other countries. Or even produce hydrogen from it. And store it in batteries like the EVs that we all soon will own (another "myth" you don't believe in LOL)

    11PM: 15kW o'clock!



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,929 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    Maybe Ireland should cop onto itself and fix things. Take a look at the new Perth childrens hospital, and weep. After that, maybe try for a can do attitude instead of can't do.

    The ESB has an uncosted plan, there's a video. Their estimate identifies a need for storage equivalent to 10,000 Turlough hills. EV batteries might cost a bit too much.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 60,526 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    @cnocbui - "EV batteries might cost a bit too much."


    EV batteries are free as we will all have them anyway ;-)

    For the craic, I set up a V2H system with my '96 electric conversion BMW. It cost me not a cent in parts. I hook the high voltage battery directly up to my solar PV inverter, which then thinks the sun is shining and it loads up my house with over 2kW of power. This is very useful when your day rate is 7.9c/kWh incl. VAT and your night rate is about 28c


    I already have a 20kWh home power wall, so I don't normally go over that, but on a very bad day a few weeks ago, I setup and used above system with the BMW and it saved me from using about 10kWh of day rate electricity. The BMW battery then filled itself for free during the next day from excess solar PV. Rinse and repeat.

    With my next batch of panels going up shortly, my modest semi-detached house in a Dublin suburb will produce 4-5 times as much as a similar house in this country uses in electricity for the year. I will produce enough to power my house, power all my electric cars, and power a significant part of my hot water heating and home heating.

    11PM: 15kW o'clock!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ Padre_Pio


    I know that this is a hobby for you, so this question might not be relevant, but what's your payback period on that setup?




  • Registered Users Posts: 494 ✭✭ thinkabouit


    Not a bloody hope, there’s going to be absolutely nothing that can do what fossil fuels can do right now.

    And don’t see it changing in my lifetime.

    Cycling, buses will have a big role to play no doubt



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 60,526 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    My payback period is generally negative or very close to zero. As in I tend to buy parts so cheaply that I could sell them at any time for more than I paid for them. And I have done this repeatedly many times in the past. So that only leaves labour really. While I do almost everything myself or with (electrician) friends, I once paid a roofer €350 and I once paid an electrician €150 for doing jobs on my PV installs.

    11PM: 15kW o'clock!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ Padre_Pio


    That's fantastic.

    I'm really impressed by the quantity of panels going up around me. Seems every second person is doing their sums and calculating their payback period.

    I'm waiting for my buddy to do his panel course and get registered with SEAI.



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