Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Fair enough on the prediction. We shall see I guess. If it were a sport, I would caution against making predictions during a 'purple patch'. The 'velocity' of war will change over the winter months too.

Sure, pre 2014 levels (with possibly an exclusion zone of say 50 Klms on the Russian side) Russia will be defeated, because Russia has to be defeated, and that's the bottom line. Even now, within Putins Russia there is a growing opposition to his war, and that's despite his crackdown on protesters etc. Yet the cracks are appearing, even on the TV shows. They don't critise Putin directly, but his "advisors", but indirectly, its Putin they mean. More and more citizens are turning against him, and when it reaches critical mass, all hell will break out in Moscow.

A visually spectacular though ultimately minor hit on a symbolic bridge or ship is a lot less significant than knocking out a third of a country's power stations in a week. One has short term PR value, the other plunges millions, literally, into darkness and cold.

This targeted destruction of civilian infrastructure is nasty and very significant, which is why the Ukrainian government is correctly and pointedly saying to Europe: give us air defence systems quickly or be prepared for a massive new wave of refugees this winter.

Thousands of orc's ripe for slaughter

Well, when it came to voting for Brexit, people we so convinced that it could not happen, that they did not even bother voting, and yet it happened. I remember back then when Putin was carrying out war games, and assembling his army on the Ukrainian border, and everyone was saying, "Its only Putin throwing his weight around... but invade??? Not a chance! And yet that's exactly what he did. So yes, a lot of people got caught out.....go back to the beginning of this thread, and you will see what I mean. Gatling, in all fairness to him, got it right and called it back then, but he was in the minority, and was pooh poohed out of it by the cognoscenti.

Yet, if it didn't happen, the field hospital would have been a very convincing touch, wouldn't it?

I didn't get past 55 seconds when the Russian conscript idiot said "I will defend my motherland". Somebody needs to tell him that nobody is invading his motherland.

Poland? Poland is heading to a bankruptcy fast with the highest inflation and mad spending, which won't stop till election in the autumn next year...

Timing is really bad, that's why Putin started that war just after Covid knowing that world will be in a very bad state.

Yeah, but he has much more different ethnic groups to please, while he is mainly killing young men from these nations sending them to this war.

Russian excess deaths in Nov 2021 were 930,000, so their total Covid deaths must have exceeded a million. Maybe the war is all about stealing children to make up for the losses? They sure seem to be devoting considerable effort and prioritising the mass kidnappings.

Of course all that grain and gas would come in handy for adjusting the behaviours of many food importing countries, so a bonus.

I recently saw something about Ukraine finishing a natural gas production well that would save them $150m a year in imports, I'll try and find it. Another thing the Orcs no doubt want.

Well

Well this time last year, the world was a completely different place, and Putin's place in it much more secure. Ditto Lukashenko, Maduro and last but not least Assad. I was in Belgrade when the population rose up and removed Milosevic. They marched as one on Belgrade from all points if the compass and despite heavy military / police roadblocks, swept him aside. They had had enough of him. Putin saved Assads neck at the last minute (for a price, of course) question is, can Assad hold on to power without Putins support? We could be about to find out, the war is not finished yes, and Idlib still has a large rebel / resistance presence. The regime are still carrying out bombing missions there. As for Lukashenko,,,,,,another one whose position heavily depends on Putin. There was always opposition to Putins invasion of Ukraine, but it was heavily suppressed, but in the last few weeks, since mobilization it has become much more vocal, and as the living standards drop, and the death toll rises this opposition will increase. Not to mention the knives waiting in the wings, as his potential successors vie for dominance. I don't think that we will be waiting too long,, definitely not years anyway. I'd be surprised if he is still around in 12 mths. But we will see how it goes throughout the winter.

What a pity... that's second such 'accident' in recent weeks. What does this point to? Just a statistical consequence of a far greater number of missions being flown or possibly poorly serviced aircraft, flown by inexperienced pilots?

Yeah, I think honest foreign nationals are going to have to be imported to do the job too.