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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    Germany is afraid of its own power, France is a powerhouse though

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,891 ✭✭✭✭briany


    But that is what Putin has been saying, anyway. One of the reasonings given for invading Ukraine was as a response to NATO expansionism. Putin has already been blaming the West for starting the war, and Putin then claims only to be protecting Russia by preventing Ukraine's joining NATO.

    I'd argue that the only reason that NATO did not give a firmer ultimatum in February was because of war fatigue in NATO countries, especially in the USA, plus the energy concerns of EU countries. Putin correctly calculated that his invasion would not be met with direct resistance from NATO, but it remains the blind spot of blind spots that he didn't calculate the amount of military support the country would receive.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    France isn't much better than Germany, in the current scheme of things



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,139 ✭✭✭Gregor Samsa


    Putin's also been in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Uzbekistan since June. Of course, what they all have in common is that they're all authoritarian regimes that are allied with Russia, and they're all in close physical proximity to Russia. And all but Iran are former Soviet countries, and those 4 are either members or "associated countries" of the CIS. He doesn't have the greatest choices of holiday destinations at present.



    Post edited by Gregor Samsa on


  • Posts: 4,503 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The people not seeing an invasion coming in Jan/Feb were those who didn't want to see.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,315 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Save boards.ie by subscribing: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,572 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    I did answer the Q, they can definitely push them out back to 2014 levels.

    The Ukrainian army was a very different fighting force then. Nothing compared to the training and beast it has become today. Russia on the other hand has been shown to be weak.

    There is a smell of death of the Russians and everyone knows it. Even the CIS are beginning to challenge the Moscow regime. Putins new empire plans may have started the fall of Russia.

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Georgia, Crimea, Syria etc. and a few other similar "Victories" that went unchallenged in any meaning full way, lulled Putin into a false sense of security, plus he was unaware of the real state of his military. For a crook, he really was blind to how much his fellow crooks were effectively robbing from him (as head of state) of cash meant to update and modernize the military. But NATO were just the excuse, the real reason for the invasion was the mineral oil/gas wealth that is in Ukraine. That was what he really wanted. Now come hell or high water, he has to be stopped, and any Country helping him needs stopping too. One thing is for sure though, for one man, he is causing a world (literally) of trouble. And the World needs to develop new strategies to handle any future outbreaks like this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,767 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,351 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    And the French and German and Italian(obvs). The only European empire left after it was Russia's and it expanded. Just as the power centres in Europe that had lasted for so long in the Mediterranean area then moved west and northwards(much of it because the Silk Road was bypassed and there was more to exploit in the New World), post WW2 those centres went to Russia and to one of Europe's ex colonies. China has always been there in the Far East with the Middle East growing, stagnating and then dying off until oil came along.

    This is the thing with your Russian types going on about hegomony, etc and wanting a multipolar world. It pretty much always was one and remains so and mostly around the above guys going back and forth; Europe, Middle East, Asia. What they really mean is that they're not a part of it, pretty much never were and were mostly an internal inward looking empire albeit a huge one on the periphery of things. They had no Renaissance, no Reformation, no Enlightenment and came to the Industrial Revolution very late(though guys like Peter the Great tried, to much resistance). On the edge except during Soviet times and the Cold War when they pulled themselves into the modern world. IMHO that's why putin and others miss those days. It was pretty much the only time in history when they were one of the "poles".

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,767 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Untitled Image

    Perhaps I am not good at estimation, but if that purple area represents a months work, then another 9-10 months should do it. I think there will be an absolute rout after Kherson falls and it might even be quicker.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,912 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    The Turkmenistan president gave Putin an earful at the last conference. He wouldn't have appreciated it but times have changed.

    'We want respect': Putin's authority tested in Central Asia | Reuters

    The region's five former Soviet republics are increasingly standing up to Moscow, aware of their new-found leverage as Russia looks to their markets and trade routes in a bid to circumvent Western sanctions.

    The new dynamic was strikingly illustrated when Russian President Vladimir Putin ran into a seven-minute tirade from the leader of Tajikistan, one of the region's smallest and poorest countries, at a summit in Kazakhstan last week.

    "We want respect. Nothing else. Respect," said Emomali Rakhmon, Tajikistan's president since 1994, complaining that Moscow's attitude had not improved since the Soviet era.

    Putin listened uncomfortably.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,912 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Fair enough on the prediction. We shall see I guess. If it were a sport, I would caution against making predictions during a 'purple patch'. The 'velocity' of war will change over the winter months too.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,396 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    You could say the same perditing on the red parts



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Sure, pre 2014 levels (with possibly an exclusion zone of say 50 Klms on the Russian side) Russia will be defeated, because Russia has to be defeated, and that's the bottom line. Even now, within Putins Russia there is a growing opposition to his war, and that's despite his crackdown on protesters etc. Yet the cracks are appearing, even on the TV shows. They don't critise Putin directly, but his "advisors", but indirectly, its Putin they mean. More and more citizens are turning against him, and when it reaches critical mass, all hell will break out in Moscow.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,909 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I know someone comes along once a week to say that Belarus are possibly about to join the war but it actually seems that they might be stupid enough to do it soon enough. Intelligence Services seem to think that it has become more likely. The Ukrainians seem to be reacting to this increased threat too. A Sergeant released the following message, addressed directly to Belarussian soldiers on social media (it reminds me a little of the speech that Zelensky made on the night of 23rd of Feb when he addressed Russian troops):





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,967 ✭✭✭rogber


    A visually spectacular though ultimately minor hit on a symbolic bridge or ship is a lot less significant than knocking out a third of a country's power stations in a week. One has short term PR value, the other plunges millions, literally, into darkness and cold.

    This targeted destruction of civilian infrastructure is nasty and very significant, which is why the Ukrainian government is correctly and pointedly saying to Europe: give us air defence systems quickly or be prepared for a massive new wave of refugees this winter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,967 ✭✭✭rogber


    Including the Ukrainian government who told the Americans to stop causing panic with rumours of an invasion?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    There are thousands of laws and rules, and even an International Criminal Court for people just like Putin, and they have put many war criminals behind bars... Milosevic (Serbia) Charles Taylor, (Liberia) Ex President of Sudan, Bashir, is another one wanted by the Hague. . (Google "The Hague" for complete list) and there are more outstanding arrest warrants, some going back many years, there are currently warrants out for 3 Russians accused of war crimes in Georgia, in 2008. So, issuing warrants is one thing, bringing criminals to justice is something else. Especially when they are the president of a Country.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Well, when it came to voting for Brexit, people we so convinced that it could not happen, that they did not even bother voting, and yet it happened. I remember back then when Putin was carrying out war games, and assembling his army on the Ukrainian border, and everyone was saying, "Its only Putin throwing his weight around... but invade??? Not a chance! And yet that's exactly what he did. So yes, a lot of people got caught out.....go back to the beginning of this thread, and you will see what I mean. Gatling, in all fairness to him, got it right and called it back then, but he was in the minority, and was pooh poohed out of it by the cognoscenti.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 409 ✭✭dvega


    Even the threat of rape against their own citizens when opposing mobilization

    "The War With Ukraine is Coming Home to Russians"



  • Posts: 4,503 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You'd have to ask the Government of Ukraine that question.

    I don't think they got caught out at all. It was wishful thinking. They didn't want it to happen, therefore it could not. They chose to ignore the signals that putrid was telegraphing. The list was pretty long, from the nuclear exercises, moving troops 9000km from the Far East, moving naval forces into blockade positions, troops camping out in the field, moving blood supplies. There are none so blind as those ....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,767 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    What convinced me Putin was going to invade were the satellite images of the very large field hospital they set up. I thought it unnecessarily large and costly for an exercise .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yet, if it didn't happen, the field hospital would have been a very convincing touch, wouldn't it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,816 ✭✭✭maebee


    I didn't get past 55 seconds when the Russian conscript idiot said "I will defend my motherland". Somebody needs to tell him that nobody is invading his motherland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Curious_Case


    Precisely, and the US would be delighted to not say "no" to the proposal that wasn't put to them. I think Israel will make a move, but they won't even comment before or afterwards.



  • Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The civilised world doesn’t need Russia.

    The more this war goes on the longer Russia will be out in the cold, especially with Dictator Putin in charge. Russia is going to collapse to North Korea level serfdom for the mass population.

    We are most certainly too dependent on Dictator run China, but thankfully the West has woken up to this. It will take time to pivot from China. Apart from energy… Russia, not so much. And energy is being worked on.

    Interesting times indeed.



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,653 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Total collapse of the Ukrainian military, attack on NATO territory, some form of raid to secure a critical asset, or nuclear explosion.

    101 has a specific role set. Any major fighting by the US in Ukraine would be done by one of the heavy divisions. Last I looked, the US basically had one heavy (armored) division in theater, though not blatantly advertised as such, not least because the units are rather scattered from Greece to Estonia. They would need to concentrate for an offensive push, or wait for another division or two to sail over to fight as an armored Corps.



This discussion has been closed.
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