When Putins regime falls, Russia will need new governance, untainted by any connections with the present one, and ready to step in and act quickly to restore law and order.
Well
Well this time last year, the world was a completely different place, and Putin's place in it much more secure. Ditto Lukashenko, Maduro and last but not least Assad. I was in Belgrade when the population rose up and removed Milosevic. They marched as one on Belgrade from all points if the compass and despite heavy military / police roadblocks, swept him aside. They had had enough of him. Putin saved Assads neck at the last minute (for a price, of course) question is, can Assad hold on to power without Putins support? We could be about to find out, the war is not finished yes, and Idlib still has a large rebel / resistance presence. The regime are still carrying out bombing missions there. As for Lukashenko,,,,,,another one whose position heavily depends on Putin. There was always opposition to Putins invasion of Ukraine, but it was heavily suppressed, but in the last few weeks, since mobilization it has become much more vocal, and as the living standards drop, and the death toll rises this opposition will increase. Not to mention the knives waiting in the wings, as his potential successors vie for dominance. I don't think that we will be waiting too long,, definitely not years anyway. I'd be surprised if he is still around in 12 mths. But we will see how it goes throughout the winter.
Aww... what a shame. So that test would be a fail, I'd imagine. 8-)
Russian excess deaths in Nov 2021 were 930,000, so their total Covid deaths must have exceeded a million. Maybe the war is all about stealing children to make up for the losses? They sure seem to be devoting considerable effort and prioritising the mass kidnappings.
Of course all that grain and gas would come in handy for adjusting the behaviours of many food importing countries, so a bonus.
I recently saw something about Ukraine finishing a natural gas production well that would save them $150m a year in imports, I'll try and find it. Another thing the Orcs no doubt want.
..
Yeah, but he has much more different ethnic groups to please, while he is mainly killing young men from these nations sending them to this war.
I agree that cracks are appearing, but the notion that any sort of "hell" will break lose in Russia is very much wishful thinking. Look at all the authoritarians still in power, Assad, Maduro, Lukashenko. Putin has a much stronger grip than any of them.
Poland? Poland is heading to a bankruptcy fast with the highest inflation and mad spending, which won't stop till election in the autumn next year...
Timing is really bad, that's why Putin started that war just after Covid knowing that world will be in a very bad state.
Total collapse of the Ukrainian military, attack on NATO territory, some form of raid to secure a critical asset, or nuclear explosion.
101 has a specific role set. Any major fighting by the US in Ukraine would be done by one of the heavy divisions. Last I looked, the US basically had one heavy (armored) division in theater, though not blatantly advertised as such, not least because the units are rather scattered from Greece to Estonia. They would need to concentrate for an offensive push, or wait for another division or two to sail over to fight as an armored Corps.
The civilised world doesn’t need Russia.
The more this war goes on the longer Russia will be out in the cold, especially with Dictator Putin in charge. Russia is going to collapse to North Korea level serfdom for the mass population.
We are most certainly too dependent on Dictator run China, but thankfully the West has woken up to this. It will take time to pivot from China. Apart from energy… Russia, not so much. And energy is being worked on.
Interesting times indeed.
Precisely, and the US would be delighted to not say "no" to the proposal that wasn't put to them. I think Israel will make a move, but they won't even comment before or afterwards.
I didn't get past 55 seconds when the Russian conscript idiot said "I will defend my motherland". Somebody needs to tell him that nobody is invading his motherland.
Israel wont ask. Then they cant be told no.
Yet, if it didn't happen, the field hospital would have been a very convincing touch, wouldn't it?
What convinced me Putin was going to invade were the satellite images of the very large field hospital they set up. I thought it unnecessarily large and costly for an exercise .
You'd have to ask the Government of Ukraine that question.
I don't think they got caught out at all. It was wishful thinking. They didn't want it to happen, therefore it could not. They chose to ignore the signals that putrid was telegraphing. The list was pretty long, from the nuclear exercises, moving troops 9000km from the Far East, moving naval forces into blockade positions, troops camping out in the field, moving blood supplies. There are none so blind as those ....
Even the threat of rape against their own citizens when opposing mobilization
"The War With Ukraine is Coming Home to Russians"
Well, when it came to voting for Brexit, people we so convinced that it could not happen, that they did not even bother voting, and yet it happened. I remember back then when Putin was carrying out war games, and assembling his army on the Ukrainian border, and everyone was saying, "Its only Putin throwing his weight around... but invade??? Not a chance! And yet that's exactly what he did. So yes, a lot of people got caught out.....go back to the beginning of this thread, and you will see what I mean. Gatling, in all fairness to him, got it right and called it back then, but he was in the minority, and was pooh poohed out of it by the cognoscenti.
There are thousands of laws and rules, and even an International Criminal Court for people just like Putin, and they have put many war criminals behind bars... Milosevic (Serbia) Charles Taylor, (Liberia) Ex President of Sudan, Bashir, is another one wanted by the Hague. . (Google "The Hague" for complete list) and there are more outstanding arrest warrants, some going back many years, there are currently warrants out for 3 Russians accused of war crimes in Georgia, in 2008. So, issuing warrants is one thing, bringing criminals to justice is something else. Especially when they are the president of a Country.
Thousands of orc's ripe for slaughter
Including the Ukrainian government who told the Americans to stop causing panic with rumours of an invasion?
A visually spectacular though ultimately minor hit on a symbolic bridge or ship is a lot less significant than knocking out a third of a country's power stations in a week. One has short term PR value, the other plunges millions, literally, into darkness and cold.
This targeted destruction of civilian infrastructure is nasty and very significant, which is why the Ukrainian government is correctly and pointedly saying to Europe: give us air defence systems quickly or be prepared for a massive new wave of refugees this winter.
I know someone comes along once a week to say that Belarus are possibly about to join the war but it actually seems that they might be stupid enough to do it soon enough. Intelligence Services seem to think that it has become more likely. The Ukrainians seem to be reacting to this increased threat too. A Sergeant released the following message, addressed directly to Belarussian soldiers on social media (it reminds me a little of the speech that Zelensky made on the night of 23rd of Feb when he addressed Russian troops):
Sure, pre 2014 levels (with possibly an exclusion zone of say 50 Klms on the Russian side) Russia will be defeated, because Russia has to be defeated, and that's the bottom line. Even now, within Putins Russia there is a growing opposition to his war, and that's despite his crackdown on protesters etc. Yet the cracks are appearing, even on the TV shows. They don't critise Putin directly, but his "advisors", but indirectly, its Putin they mean. More and more citizens are turning against him, and when it reaches critical mass, all hell will break out in Moscow.
You could say the same perditing on the red parts
Fair enough on the prediction. We shall see I guess. If it were a sport, I would caution against making predictions during a 'purple patch'. The 'velocity' of war will change over the winter months too.
The Turkmenistan president gave Putin an earful at the last conference. He wouldn't have appreciated it but times have changed.
'We want respect': Putin's authority tested in Central Asia | Reuters
The region's five former Soviet republics are increasingly standing up to Moscow, aware of their new-found leverage as Russia looks to their markets and trade routes in a bid to circumvent Western sanctions.
The new dynamic was strikingly illustrated when Russian President Vladimir Putin ran into a seven-minute tirade from the leader of Tajikistan, one of the region's smallest and poorest countries, at a summit in Kazakhstan last week.
"We want respect. Nothing else. Respect," said Emomali Rakhmon, Tajikistan's president since 1994, complaining that Moscow's attitude had not improved since the Soviet era.
Putin listened uncomfortably.
Perhaps I am not good at estimation, but if that purple area represents a months work, then another 9-10 months should do it. I think there will be an absolute rout after Kherson falls and it might even be quicker.
And the French and German and Italian(obvs). The only European empire left after it was Russia's and it expanded. Just as the power centres in Europe that had lasted for so long in the Mediterranean area then moved west and northwards(much of it because the Silk Road was bypassed and there was more to exploit in the New World), post WW2 those centres went to Russia and to one of Europe's ex colonies. China has always been there in the Far East with the Middle East growing, stagnating and then dying off until oil came along.
This is the thing with your Russian types going on about hegomony, etc and wanting a multipolar world. It pretty much always was one and remains so and mostly around the above guys going back and forth; Europe, Middle East, Asia. What they really mean is that they're not a part of it, pretty much never were and were mostly an internal inward looking empire albeit a huge one on the periphery of things. They had no Renaissance, no Reformation, no Enlightenment and came to the Industrial Revolution very late(though guys like Peter the Great tried, to much resistance). On the edge except during Soviet times and the Cold War when they pulled themselves into the modern world. IMHO that's why putin and others miss those days. It was pretty much the only time in history when they were one of the "poles".
Nuclear weapons.
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/e050b53be62f0ae2404c620976170938.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/eedacf599b4135dfd56d6fdbddcbd867.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w9.vanillicon.com/v2/99cb88aba86d6cd761548c5d5bb50f6a.svg)
