Russia - threadbanned users in OP

You see such a reaction is a reflection of the group think on this thread. Any option which is slightly different to the majority of the clique is viewed as odd or a threat and has to be shouted down. Ironically it is Putinesque in its approach.

But unlike you and others I don’t judge you. As you are psychologically invested with the group think and emotionally feel the only solution is to ‘cheer on’ a side from a distance. In this case Ukraine. Fair enough your choice.

But if any other opinion is automatically viewed as a ‘hacking’ or as a de facto ‘Putin sympathiser’ - I believe emotions and the group think are too heightened to look at practical alternate solutions.

The current situation is set for long stalemate and/or escalation.

It is far too late for NATO et al to placate Putin/Russia following their gradual broken promises on future NATO membership. Which gradually crept west closer to Russia. Given the fact Russia has historically been invaded by the West on numerous occasions plus it is a flat land. In Putin’s mind it gave him great cause for concern.

It is now too late to assassinate Putin with secret services from opposing countries he was allowed to get too powerful in Russia and build up gold and cash reserves. Sanctions will have little effect on Putin’s war footing as a result.

It is now too late to remove EU dependence on Russian oil. Merkel saw to that with her German energy policy. Which in turn has now tied up the EU and Germany is also a NATO member. Merkel has tied Germany/NATO in knots as a result.

But there is no doubt Putin’s invasion has spectacularly backfired on Putin. As it has/will hasten NATO membership of countries close to Russia. And Russia has lost prestige.

However, given Russia’s size unless other countries invade Russia in a combined force this current war will be a prolonged one.

The other alternative (and best I believe) is diplomatic mediation back Channel’s and so on. That seems like a much more feasible option. However, judging by this thread people are not ready for this option yet. It is not viewed as palatable.

But doing what is perceived as unpopular can lead to peace. We saw it on the island of Ireland. If both sides were not willing to take risks politically people would likely still be killing each other today.

I actually have my doubts Russia even has that many there. Probably 5k max. There's a reason almost all attacks stopped from Izyum when Putin sent reinforcements to Kherson.

True, but both methods form a aggressive ideological political block and both are dangerous in the long term. Particularly if a country like Russia is excluded or threatened. There was once mooted talk of the potential of Russia joining NATO, I believe but that seems far fetched now.

From what I have read and saw Russia/Putin, is hung up on the broken promises the USSR/CIS received on European countries NATO expansion such as the Baltic states, then NATO/America made noises towards Ukraine etc.

But all that can’t be undone now it has played a large part in the current situation.

But that does not absolve Putin his reaction has been disproportionate. Even allowing for the Russian argument that the Crimea is part of Russia and was given to Ukraine as a sign of shared nationhood by Khrushchev in 1954. And that Russian created Ukraine etc.

The reaction by Putin was completely wrong. But NATO/USA played a massive part in increasing Putin’s insecurities.

It is up to intermediaries now to have talks about talks, and hopefully it will lead to small symbolic gestures, compromise and peace.

But the way things are going now it could be a few decades off as Putin is 69. So waiting for him to retire/die is not a viable strategy.

Think the Ukrainians are trying to speed run this.

Yet :-) , it's conceivable that if Russia keeps sustaining these losses over the next 6 months you could see the collapse of the Russian federation, there are more than one of it's republics that are surly eyeing up independence

Ukrainian sources estimate 50k troops involved in Kharkiv counteroffensive. Russia has less than 1/10th of that spread across from Kupiansk to Izyum.

Russians were spread too thin and Ukrainians could advance through multiple roads almost entirely undefended - those that were, were only defended for a short time before russian garrisons retreated. Similar situation to Russias big gains in February.

Its only 30km from Kupiansk to Russian border so will be a lot of reserves moved in to defend it. If Ukraine dont take it quickly, it could end up stagnating similar to the Kherson offensive.

Putin: 'Tis but a scratch

Kherson and current Kharkiv counteroffensives extensively used troops trained by or in western countries. Thats part of the reason there was such a delay in doing it in the first place. Time is on their side to an extent as the country is mobilised and they can, given enough time, train a far numerically superior army to Russias.

The reason why now, is because its harder to go on the offensive in winter and because politically, they need to deliver some "wins" to ensure the flow of western military equipment continues.