Russia - threadbanned users in OP

EOQRTL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594489#Comment_119594489

Hitler 2.0 🤣

I'll think you'll find Hitler gained a lot of land before he was handed his arse by the west. Putin not so much.

EOQRTL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594502#Comment_119594502

In fairness 70% is a shocking number tbh meaning 30% don't want to continue supporting. Will be interesting to see that percentage come December/January. 😕

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594549#Comment_119594549

Germany's gas storage is 85% full, France is tidying up a disused gas pipeline to supply them with more. They'll be fine. Leave down the worry beads.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594493#Comment_119594493

There are no broken promises on NATO expansion.

This was all covered in the NATO-Russia Founding Act.

NATO has not setup any permanent bases as per what was agreed in former Soviet territories.

Regardless, Russia has no right to decide what security arrangements those countries choose. This is all as per agreements they have signed both as the USSR and Russia such as the Helsinki Act, the OSCE and NATO Russia Founding Act.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_111767.htm

Russia does not need to be placated. That was tried and failed. They have shown they only have respect for military force.

This is why Sweden and Finland want to join NATO, reversing decades of foreign policy. Placating Russia does not work.

As for 'peace'. What you are proposing is not peace. It is surrender to tyranny. Was France at 'peace' with Germany under Vichy? Was Czechosolvakia? Nor would Ukraine have been if it had not had Western support to thwart Russia's attempted takeover.

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594419#Comment_119594419

I actually have my doubts Russia even has that many there. Probably 5k max. There's a reason almost all attacks stopped from Izyum when Putin sent reinforcements to Kherson.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594597#Comment_119594597

Even better, it ought to fall faster.

gormdubhgorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594512#Comment_119594512

True, but both methods form a aggressive ideological political block and both are dangerous in the long term. Particularly if a country like Russia is excluded or threatened. There was once mooted talk of the potential of Russia joining NATO, I believe but that seems far fetched now.

From what I have read and saw Russia/Putin, is hung up on the broken promises the USSR/CIS received on European countries NATO expansion such as the Baltic states, then NATO/America made noises towards Ukraine etc.

But all that can’t be undone now it has played a large part in the current situation.

But that does not absolve Putin his reaction has been disproportionate. Even allowing for the Russian argument that the Crimea is part of Russia and was given to Ukraine as a sign of shared nationhood by Khrushchev in 1954. And that Russian created Ukraine etc.

The reaction by Putin was completely wrong. But NATO/USA played a massive part in increasing Putin’s insecurities.

It is up to intermediaries now to have talks about talks, and hopefully it will lead to small symbolic gestures, compromise and peace.

But the way things are going now it could be a few decades off as Putin is 69. So waiting for him to retire/die is not a viable strategy.

EOQRTL

So what's the general consensus on how the counter offensive is going? It's very hard to wade through the propaganda from both sides online. Are there gains, small gains or big? Is the Russian defence folding like a pack of cards in a storm? Have the Ukrainian troops being trained by the west entered the battle yet and if not when.

TheValeyard

https://mobile.twitter.com/Mil_Report/status/1568184226268303360

Think the Ukrainians are trying to speed run this.

Mullinabreena

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594444#Comment_119594444

That's absolutely shocking

bennyineire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594541#Comment_119594541

Yet :-) , it's conceivable that if Russia keeps sustaining these losses over the next 6 months you could see the collapse of the Russian federation, there are more than one of it's republics that are surly eyeing up independence

EOQRTL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594651#Comment_119594651

Are we really surprised?

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594643#Comment_119594643

Ukrainian sources estimate 50k troops involved in Kharkiv counteroffensive. Russia has less than 1/10th of that spread across from Kupiansk to Izyum.

Russians were spread too thin and Ukrainians could advance through multiple roads almost entirely undefended - those that were, were only defended for a short time before russian garrisons retreated. Similar situation to Russias big gains in February.

Its only 30km from Kupiansk to Russian border so will be a lot of reserves moved in to defend it. If Ukraine dont take it quickly, it could end up stagnating similar to the Kherson offensive.

Curious_Case

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594493#Comment_119594493

I know you posted in good faith, some others here seem interested only in "introducing" a particular view so that it "propagates" via Irish social channels. They always start out so, so reasonable but their audience here cottons on very fast indeed and they then become frustrated and "blow their cover".

You are obviously being sensible in questioning whether the supply of more weapons sooner would have brought forward an eventual Ukrainian victory.

Perhaps the pace has been chosen to prevent Putin from identifying a particular tipping point and "lashing out" unpredictably.

Many various systems have been supplied, most require training that is relevant to a single system only so many different training courses are required.

One hopes that the beneficial effect of lengthiness (draining Russia's military capability) is inadvertent.

On reflection, it does appear that Putin has been expertly played.

EOQRTL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594682#Comment_119594682

Do we know if western trained soldiers are involved in the fighting yet?

I'm still flabbergasted at how poor the Russian troops are trained and how old and decrepit their equipment is.

Putin should be hung in red square for basically sending young poor men into the meat grinder like that who know no better. He really is a despicable little grunt.

dvega

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594493#Comment_119594493

Exactly what odyssey said , why can't Poland decide their own future, Estonia, Lativa? Do you think they would feel safe if they didn't join NATO? Would you? Is it just because Russia is bigger? they have Nukes?

Your original post was a bit naive, it's not just about negotiations, it's negotiating from a position of strength. Right now giving into Putin would be suicide not just for Ukrainians but for any future incursions. I do agree with you, this will be settled from diplomatic mediation but not now and certainly not while Ukrainians seem to have a bit of an upper hand.

To negotiate with the Russians, the Ukrainians will need several forms of political support. First, they need to go into negotiations confident that they will be able, in the future, to live in security, free of threat of further Russian invasion. The Ukrainians have learned — the hard way — that written promises from the Russians to respect its sovereignty and territorial integrity are worthless.

Curious_Case

Putin: 'Tis but a scratch

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Knight_%28Monty_Python%29

mcmoustache

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594493#Comment_119594493

You can describe my distaste for large countries invading their neighbours as groupthink if it makes you feel any better but your screed is indistinguishable from the tankie talking points that have been made over the last 6 months and beyond. The nonsense about nato expansion and broken promises has been well debunked and interestingly enough, leaves out any talk of the Budapest memorandum which was an actual signed agreement unlike whatever the promise to end nato expansion was.

Those excuses you make for Putin are just that, excuses. You make it sound like he has no agency of his own and is simply responding to "provocations". You make it sound like Russia has some divine right to have a say in the affairs of its neighbours.

And with your talk of "peace", are you trying to tell me that life under Russian occupation is a desirable outcome for Ukraine? **** that noise. And the Ukrainians agree. It's not like people from central and eastern europe aren't familiar with living under Russian occupation. There's a very good reason that those countries chose to join Nato as soon as they could. They know far better than you do what it's like to have Russia as a neighbour.

You can try to view yourself as a free and independent thinker all you like but really, all you've done is chosen a well-known information bubble and your post reflects that. That's not independent thinking. That's just consuming and regurgitating tankie talking points and patting yourself on the back for going against a consensus.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594714#Comment_119594714

Kherson and current Kharkiv counteroffensives extensively used troops trained by or in western countries. Thats part of the reason there was such a delay in doing it in the first place. Time is on their side to an extent as the country is mobilised and they can, given enough time, train a far numerically superior army to Russias.

The reason why now, is because its harder to go on the offensive in winter and because politically, they need to deliver some "wins" to ensure the flow of western military equipment continues.

doyle55

Tweet

From Lesia Vasylenko twitter.

Russia fighter jets just performed an air raid on Sumy region, shooting at civilian hospital. Local authorities are counting the civilianCasualties.

josip

By the time this war is over we will have a good knowledge of the rivers in Ukraine. The Dnipro was talked about a lot at the start of the war. It played its part up north when the Ukrainians flooded some of the plains either side of it to literally bog down the Russians, the same as the Belgians did at Nieuport. Down south, it's also shaping the front line, with the isolated Russian territory on the right bank looking more and more precarious.

During the battles for Severodontsk and Lsyschansk, the Siverski Donetsk was defended staunchly and still demarks the front line in many places in that part of the theatre. Ukraine crossing it in places this week to retake Ozerne and the other village to the west was noteworthy news. A couple of months ago in the Kherson Oblast, the Ukrainians crossing the Inhulets at Davydiv Brid and maintaining that bridgehead was encouraging and one of the few changes to the frontline there at the time.

Air power isn't as much of a factor in this war as expected. So the terrain and geography has a bigger part to play. I think the Oskil river that runs through Kupiansk will be the next natural feature of Ukraine to feature inadvertently in the news. Maybe the Ukrainians will take Kupiansk, maybe they will be repelled. But whatever happens, I expect them to try to push as far as the bank of the Oskil south of Kupiansk. Let the river do the hard work of defending the front.

Some posters have mentioned that September is Ukraine's last chance to regain territory before the winter. I'm not sure if this is completely correct. I definitely think there will be a pause for a couple of months October - December during the muddy season. But from mid December things will be freezing up.

http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages%5CR%5CI%5CRivers.htm

By January, all of the rivers in the north will be frozen over. Many think that winters favour Russia during wartime. But that's when faced with Western European opposition. Ukranians are just as used to those conditions as Russians and will be better equipped. Morale will be sapped easier during the winter if soldiers are hungry and cold and not fully committed to the cause. I fully expect the Ukrainians to test the Russians resolve during the depths of winter and a full scale Russian collapse is much more likely then, than now.

The Oskil river (reservoir) between Kupiansk and Izyum is no longer as wide as depicted on maps however. The dam was blown up back in April and it's once again a low-flow meandering stream.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594444#Comment_119594444

Someone doing a genocide

Mullinabreena

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594670#Comment_119594670

I shouldn't be after half a million kidnapped babies and children, countless children raped and murdered. Pure evil.

Apiarist

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594643#Comment_119594643

Good thing is that Ukrainians are making progress. It won't be possible to liberate everything in one go. Even a great progress of say 50km on the whole front is not the end of the war. But the important thing is that Ukraine has the initiative, and this makes Russians very nervous. The Russians must be defeated morally first, and even a limited victory for Ukraine is great for sapping Russian will to fight.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594612#Comment_119594612

Read the NATO Russia Founding act.

All reasonable concerns of Russia are dealt with there.

NATO broke no promises. Russia has no right to expect what it demands and those expectations are contrary to multiple agreements it has signed.

Regardless all this talk of NATO is a red herring. Russia ramped up its pressure on Ukraine when it wanted to sign an EU treaty - not a military one.

Russia wants Ukraines resources people and economy in its orbit. Ukraines military is only a factor in that it prevents Russia from waltzing in and taking and doing whatever it wants.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594865#Comment_119594865

Russia will straight up lie knowing some people will fall for it - GORMless is a good example of this.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119593585#Comment_119593585

It's a AT4 launcher made by Saab/Bofors in Sweden

Darth Putin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594612#Comment_119594612

Do you care to point out where these “promises” are in paper?

Because there are promises to protect Ukraine signed by Russia and promises at UN to not invade other countries

What do you make of Vladimir Putin in an infamous public speech outlining his plans of imperial conquest of all the lands he considers “Russian” (half of Europe if you look at 19th century maps) completely demolishing your “but but NATO” argument

Darth Putin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594643#Comment_119594643

Here you go comrade @EOQRTL , from Russian source

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1568161225980215299?s=20&t=jK4-2_swtdRFnBcFcUH9iA

Ten of Swords

Mod - Not sure how we started talking about cattle theft in rural Ireland but lets leave it there and get back on topic please